Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $4.44, nearer the daily low and closed at a five-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical selling pressure today as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Losses in winter wheat futures today were also negative for the corn market.
USDA’s monthly supply and demand report today showed its 2025/26 corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers was raised to $4.15 per bushel from $4.10.
The agency also reported daily U.S. corn export sales of 136,000 MT to South Korea during 2025-26. USDA reported weekly corn sales totaled 1.36 MMT during the week ended April 2, up 18% from the previous week and 8% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 750,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Net sales of 11,400 MT for 2026-27 were for Mexico.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday said El Nino has a 61% chance of developing between May and June 2026 and is expected to persist through at least the end of 2026.
Argentina’s 2025-26 corn harvest should reach a record 67 MMT, according to the latest update from the Rosario grains exchange, which raised its estimate from a prior 62 MMT, due to higher acreage than originally expected.
World Weather Inc. today said planting potential in the United States is looking favorable for the lower-most Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, despite a few bouts of rain. Crops in the remainder of the Midwest will be a little too wet and cool at times, limiting fieldwork and raising the potential for more extended planting delays. Meantime, alternating periods of rain and sunshine are expected in much of Brazil’s crop areas during the next 10 days, supporting late-season crop development and some ongoing harvest activity. Argentina became a little too wet recently in parts of the central and south. Much-needed and welcome drying is expected over the next several days, although some increase in rain will occur again early next week.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.65 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.50 1/4 and then at $4.55. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 3 1/4 cents to $11.65 1/4, near mid-range. May soybean meal rose $3.50 to $317.60, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil gained 28 points to 67.70 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures markets today saw minor buying interest, with spreaders again featured unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads.
This morning’s monthly USDA WASDE report showed its 2025/26 U.S. soybean supply and use projections see increased crush, reduced exports and unchanged ending stocks. Crush was raised 35 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use. Soybean exports were reduced by 35 million bushels. The average farm soybean price was lifted to $10.30 a bushel from $10.20 in March.
USDA also this morning reported U.S. soybean export sales totaled 295,400 MT during the week ended April 2, down 16% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain has saturated the topsoil in northern and central parts of the Midwest, preventing early-season fieldwork from occurring for a while. Cool temperatures early this week will keep fields wet until the next wave of precipitation begins late this week through early to mid-week next week. That is likely to translate into delayed planting, but improved weather should come along later in the month to induce some welcome drying. The immediate Ohio River Valley did not get much precipitation recently and this week’s moisture should be restricted as well and that should translate into an opportunity for some planting. Meantime, in Brazil, a good mix of rain and sunshine is expected for much of the nation’s key agricultural areas during the next ten 10. Some of the drier areas in the interior south will get rain; though, much more will be needed to fix long term moisture deficits. Harvesting of early season crops will advance around the precipitation and sufficient moisture will be present to maintain a good outlook for most crops. In Argentina, too much rain impacted portions of central through southern regions recently, causing local flooding and stalling fieldwork. Some sunseed quality declines may have resulted. Most other crops were not likely impacted by the wet conditions. Drying that occurs over the next full week will be ideal in improving crop and field conditions.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.70 1/2 and then at $11.80. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at this week’s low of $11.40 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $319.10 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $311.40 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 70.49 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.63 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.22 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW lost 5 3/4 cents to $5.74 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. May HRW fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.90 1/2, nearer the daily low and also hit a five-week low. May spring wheat futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $6.18 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling pressure today as the near-term chart postures for both markets are deteriorating.
Today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report showed U.S. wheat imports raised by 5 million bushels and seed use reduced by 1 million bushels. The season-average farm price for wheat is up $0.05 per bushel to $5.00.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 163,600 MT during the week ended April 2, which were up noticeably from the previous week but down 39% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 0 to 150,000 MT. Net sales of 90,700 MT were reported for 2026-27.
Consultancy Expana raised its forecast for the European Union’s 2026-27 soft wheat harvest to 128.7 MMT, up from 128.6 MMT last month, citing favorable growing conditions. However, that’s still well below the 2025-26 estimate of 137.1 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness relief to wheat produced from northern Texas to central and eastern Kansas is expected over the next 10 days. Some partial relief is also expected to the west, but it is unclear how well the crop will respond to the erratic and light intensity of rain expected in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at $5.80 and then at today’s high of $5.88 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.70 and then at $5.63 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.60. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at this week’s high of $6.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.85 1/4 and then at $5.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 159 points to 73.26 cents, near the session high and hit a 12-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market bulls again showed their resilience today by posting solid gains despite mostly weaker grain futures prices. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace, as well as a drop in the U.S. dollar index and solidly higher crude oil prices, worked in favor of the cotton market bulls today.
USDA made no changes to the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, while lifting the average farm price to 61.0 cents from 60.0 cents.
Today’s weekly USDA export inspections report showed U.S. cotton sales totaling 319,600 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 14 percent from the previous week, but up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (132,500 RB), Turkey (67,800 RB) and Pakistan (36,000 RB). Net sales of 14,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Costa Rica (13,200 RB), Indonesia (9,300 RB) and South Korea (6,500 RB). Shipments of 342,700 RB were down 4 percent from the previous week and down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (126,200 RB), China (39,000 RB) and India (37,100 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico showers over the next few days will be welcome. However, much more precipitation will be needed to support crop development in dryland fields. Not much follow-up precipitation is expected for a while. The Coastal Bend may receive the greatest rainfall in the next couple of days. West Texas will see some improving opportunity for showers in the high and low Plains during the coming week to ten days; although there will be an ongoing need for greater rain. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture, but not much is expected for a while. The Delta will dry out over the coming week and then portions of the region should get rain April 17-24. Drought is becoming more serious in the southeastern corner of the nation from northern Florida to Virginia and little relief is expected for the next ten days in southern portions of that region.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 68.60 cents. First resistance is seen at 73.50 cents and then at 74.00 cents. First support is seen at 72.00 cents and then at today’s low of 70.85 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.