Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 4 cents to $4.44 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today, following early week selling pressure. Bulls are regaining confidence. A surprisingly tame U.S. consumer price index reading today, at up 2.7%, year-on-year and well below market expectations for a 3.1% rise prompted better risk appetite in the general marketplace, which helped out the grain futures markets bulls today.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks, with enough rain in much of the region to favorably support crop development and maintain or increase soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais where little rain is expected through most of the period with some important showers advertised for Saturday into Tuesday. Much of the rain Saturday into Tuesday should not be heavy, but the moisture will buy crops more time before greater stress to crops evolves. Rain during the next two weeks will be greatest from Mato Grosso into Goias as well as from southern Paraguay into western, central, and northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina where the soil should be left saturated or nearly saturated and fieldwork will be sluggish. In Argentina, little rain is expected through today allowing fieldwork to increase in many areas before a wetter weather pattern begins Friday with nearly widespread rain Friday into Monday and multiple rounds of rain in most areas Tuesday into Jan. 1 slows fieldwork while increasing soil moisture. Much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture in place to support crop development while most areas dry down today with some exceptions in the southwest where soil moisture is already short and stress to crops should rise until greater rain falls.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.45 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at this week’s low of $4.35 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 6 cents to $10.52 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. January soybean meal 20 cents to $298.40, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low early on. January soybean oil fell 41 points to 48.11 cents, nearer the session low and closed at a six-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures markets today saw more technical selling pressure, amid bearish near-term technical postures. Soybean meal futures today saw tepid short covering.
A surprisingly tame U.S. consumer price index reading today, at up 2.7%, year-on-year and well below market expectations for a 3.1% rise did not help out the soybean complex much.
USDA today reported daily U.S. soybean export sales of 114,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26. Meantime, China has secured at least 7 million MT of U.S. soybeans after heavy buying in the past two weeks, Bloomberg reports, passing the halfway mark toward meeting its 12 million-MT purchase agreement with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the deals.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather is expected in most of Brazil and northern and central Argentina over the next two weeks, maintaining very good crop development potential. Southwestern Argentina is expected to dry out but some timely rain may return again later in the month to prevent stress from becoming a serious threat to production.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $10.67 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $10.80. First support is seen at $10.50 and then at $10.40.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of $304.10 and then at this week’s high of $306.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $297.50 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.75 cents. First resistance is seen at 49.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s high of 49.48 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 47.79 cents and then at 47.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 1 1/2 cents to $5.07 3/4, near mid-range. March HRW rose 9 1/4 cents to $5.17, nearer the daily high. March spring wheat futures increased 10 1/4 cents to $5.72 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting, with HRW leading the way.
A surprisingly tame U.S. consumer price index reading today, at up 2.7%, year-on-year and well below market expectations for a 3.1% rise prompted better risk appetite in the general marketplace, which also helped out the wheat markets bulls today.
SovEcon raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 0.2 MMT, to 88.8 MMT. The outlook for the country’s total grain production was raised by 0.8 MT, to 136.2 MMT. Expana forecasts soft wheat production in the European Union could fall 6.2% in 2026-27 after a bumper harvest this season amid good weather conditions in most parts of the bloc. Farmers in South Africa are expected to harvest 3% more wheat in the 2025 season, compared with the previous one, according to the government’s Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) earlier today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country particularly strong winds today will cause blowing dust. Some wind gusts are expected to be greater than 60 mph. An unusually dry and warm weather pattern will continue in the next two weeks. There is one possible exception to the dry bias though and that is still in the Dec. 26 – 28 timeframe, which could involve a weather disturbance with some rain and maybe some snow too. In the Northern Plains, blizzard conditions will occur in central and eastern production areas today due to some snow and more very strong winds. Some wind gusts in western Minnesota and the central and eastern Dakotas today will likely be greater than 55 mph. More travel delays and livestock stress is expected as a result.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at this week’s high of $5.29 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.04 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.20 1/2 and then at $5.25. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.03 and then at $4.98 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 8 points to 63.51 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw tepid short covering after prices Tuesday hit a contract low. Technicals remain firmly bearish, including a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Disappointing export demand for U.S. cotton will also likely limit the upside for futures in the near term.
A surprisingly tame U.S. consumer price index reading today, at up 2.7%, year-on-year and well below market expectations for a 3.1% rise prompted better risk appetite in the general marketplace and rallied the U.S. stock market—but failed to help out cotton bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said recent dry conditions in California, the southwestern desert region and southwestern Plains have been good for late-season harvesting and routine field operations. U.S. harvesting should be nearly complete and the focus of weather needs during the winter should be on soil moisture replenishment from California to Texas and in parts of the southeastern states.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 64.53 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 62.97 cents and then at 62.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.