Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $4.26 1/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market bulls once again showed power just when they had to do so, to keep alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.
News that Argentina has temporarily lifted export duties on its grain exports continued to cast a pall over the corn futures markets earlier today
USDA today reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 122,947 MT to Mexico, of the total, 100,593 MT is for 2025-26 and 22,354 MT is for 2026-27.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sept. 21. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the crop declined 1.7 points to 370.3 but remains 4.3 points ahead of year ago. Meanwhile, corn harvest was estimated to be 11% complete, in-line with the five-year average.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn yield forecast by 2.0 bushels this week to 182.0 bu. per acre and maintains a neutral to lower bias. Cordonnier pointed out, “early yields are disappointing as southern rust has caused more problems than originally anticipated.”
World Weather Inc. today said rain started to impact the Midwest Monday and it will continue in southern and eastern areas into Thursday morning. The rain will bring relief to previously dry areas and some of that will extend into the Delta and Tennessee River Basin as well. Drying will be quick to resume Thursday and it will last through the following 10 days, favoring the resumption of early season harvesting.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.26 1/2 and then at $4.31 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.22 and then at this week’s low of $4.18 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 cent to $10.12, near mid-range hit a six-week low early on. December soybean meal fell $2.80 to $277.30, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. December soybean oil rose 19 points to 49.88 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a three-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex bulls are trying to stabilize prices early this week, following a news report from Reuters that Chinese buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans after that nation on Monday dropped its grain export taxes to raise dollars.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 61% “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sunday. On our CCI, the soybean crop slid 1.2 points from the previous week and is nearly 6.0 points below the same time a year ago. Soybean harvest was estimated at 9% complete as of Sunday.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. soybean yield forecast by 0.5 bushels to 52.0 bu. per acre, maintaining a neutral to lower bias going forward. He noted drier conditions in the eastern and southern Midwest are a concern, especially amid warmer temperatures.
World Weather Inc. today said moderate to heavy rain today into Wednesday from eastern Kansas to southern into eastern Michigan, Ohio, and Kentucky will temporarily stall fieldwork while inducing additional relief from drought. Lighter rain will fall from east-central and southeastern Nebraska to southern Wisconsin and the rest of Michigan where winter crop areas will also benefit from the moisture while fieldwork is interrupted. A drier weather pattern will occur through most of the remainder of the next two weeks and fieldwork should quickly resume as the soil is dry enough where moderate to heavy rain is expected this week to absorb the rain without becoming excessively muddy. Totally dry weather is not expected and many areas will receive at least some rain Oct. 2-4 that will be beneficial for winter crops.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage with the recent price downdraft. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the September high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.25 and then at $10.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.05 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart has been restarted. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $280.10 and then at this week’s high of $284.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $276.40 and then at $272.60.
Bean oil bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.77 cents and then at 51.34 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 48.89 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 9 3/4 cents to $5.20 1/2, near the session high and hit a contract low early on. December HRW gained 9 1/4 cents to $5.11 1/2, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $5.67 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering after this week scoring new contract lows. Gains in corn and stabilizing soy complex futures prices also encouraged some buying interest in wheat.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated 20% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Sept. 21, up nine percentage points on the week, but three points behind the five-year average.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2025-26 season in July totaled 4.12 MMT by Sept. 21, down from 6.13 MMT a year earlier, according to data published by the European Commission earlier today.
World Weather Inc. said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will trend drier after Wednesday, supporting aggressive wheat planting and early crop emergence should occur quickly because of favorable soil moisture. Canada’s Prairies will experience good drying conditions that will support quick harvest progress over the next seven days.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are in place on the daily charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.23 and then at $5.30. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.07 1/4 and then $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. First resistance is seen at $5.15 and then at $5.19. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.97 1/2 and then at $4.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 42 points to 66.64 cents, near mid-range and hit a two-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw short covering today and was also supported by gains in corn and wheat futures.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop 12% harvested and 60% bolls opening. The crop was in 47% good to excellent condition, 35% fair and 18% poor to very poor condition.
World Weather Inc. said Warm temperatures and limited rainfall in west Texas will help expedite the development of cotton. Cotton in the Blacklands will be dry enough to support crop maturation and harvesting, although some showers will occur infrequently. Harvesting in other areas of Texas to the south will advance well around any spotty showers as well.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 67.84 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of 65.80 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.02 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.03 cents and then at 65.80 cents.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.