Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 6 1/4 cents to $4.41 1/2, near the daily high and hit a 4.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw good chart-based buying from the speculators amid an increasingly bullish near-term chart posture. Gains in soybeans that saw prices hit a 17-month high today also supported buying interest in corn.
Brazil’s Conab today projected the country would produce 139 million metric tons of corn, down 1.6% from the previous year, Reuters reported.
The end of the U.S. government shutdown has cleared the way for USDA to begin releasing a backlog of data. Weekly export sales data figures were released early today, but for the week ended Sept. 25, which saw U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.395 MMT, down 27% from the previous week but well above average.
Traders await Friday’s USDA supply and demand report, which is the first major USDA data point in over a month. A survey of analysts by Bloomberg predicted USDA would lower its average U.S. corn yield estimate to 184 bushels an acre from 186.7 bushels an acre in September, bringing its production estimate down to 16.566 billion bushels from 16.814 billion.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will be erratic, leaving subsoil moisture low in pockets for the next five to seven days. There is potential for increasing rainfall during the latter part of next week through the following weekend.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today by restarting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.42 1/4 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.34 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 13 1/4 cents to $11.47, nearer the session high and hit a 17-month high. December soybean meal rose $7.40 to $328.40, nearer the daily high and hit a nine-month high. December soybean oil fell 37 points to 50.25 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw more chart-based speculator buying featured as their near-term technical postures remain firmly bullish. Spreaders today were again featured buying meal and selling bean oil futures.
Conab put Brazil’s incoming soybean crop at a record 177.6 million metric tons, with exports seen rising 5.1% to 112.1 million metric tons.
With the U.S. government reopened, USDA early this morning reported U.S. soybean weekly export sales totaled 870,500 MT in the week end Sept. 25, up 20% from the previous week but well below average.
Traders await Friday’s November USDA supply and demand report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 53.1 bushels an acre, down from USDA’s 53.5 bushel an acre estimate in September. U.S. production is seen at 4.271 billion bushels, down from the September USDA estimate of 4.301 million bushels.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina during the next two weeks. Portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will be scattered, leaving subsoil moisture low in some areas for the next five to seven days. There is potential for increasing rainfall during the latter part of next week through the following weekend, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.50 1/2 and then at $11.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.29 3/4 and then at this week’s low of $11.18 1/2.
December soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $334.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $330.00 and then at $334.00. First support is seen at $325.00 and then at today’s low of $320.20.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the October high of 51.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 49.58 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 1/4 cent to $5.35 3/4, near mid-range. December HRW rose 1/4 cent to $5.25 3/4, near mid-range. December spring wheat futures rose 1/4 of a cent to $5.70, also about mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw a pause but the bulls were disappointed given the solid gains in soybeans and corn.
USDA early this morning reported U.S. wheat weekly export sales totaled 315,900 MT in the week ended Sept. 25, down 41% from the previous week and below average.
Wheat traders are awaiting Friday’s USDA supply and demand report. A Bloomberg survey of analysts showed they expect, on average, 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks of 869 million bushels versus 844 million bushels in USDA’s September report. The 2025-26 world wheat ending stocks are pegged by the analysts at 265.9 million MT versus 264.1 million MT in USDA’s September report.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, dry weather will continue through Saturday before some changes begin to happen with the pattern. A lead weather disturbance will move into the region late Sunday into Monday and promote some rain and maybe some snow; though moisture totals with this are unlikely to be very great and could be limited mainly to northern production areas. A larger, follow-up storm system is then expected Wednesday. This system has some of the best potential of the next two weeks to get beneficial precipitation into west-central and southwestern parts of the region. In the Northern Plains, some rain and snow shower activity in the next seven days will occur mainly in southwestern production areas. This precipitation will be beneficial, though more will be needed, especially in Montana.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.55. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.26 1/4 and then at $5.17 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.16 1/4 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 40 points to 62.90 cents, near the daily low and closed at a contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw more technical selling as the near-term charts remain fully bearish. Solid losses in the stock indexes today also weighed on cotton futures.
Cotton traders are looking forward to Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report for November. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows the forecasting, on average, U.S. production of 13.52 million bales versus the agency’s September report showing U.S. production of 13.22 million bales. U.S. exports are forecast at 12.08 million bales versus 12.00 million forecast in the USDA September report. U.S. ending stocks are seen by the analysts at 3.76 million bales versus 3.60 million in the USDA September report.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in California and Arizona late this week and into next week will delay late-season farming activity and may discolor any unharvested crop. Other areas in the U.S. will experience good harvest conditions into early next week, with little to no rain and warming temperatures after recent freezes. There is potential for rain in a part of the southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states during the latter part of next week and into late November, possibly disrupting late-season farming activity.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the October high of 66.10 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 64.59 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 62.86 cents and then at 62.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.