Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $4.21 3/4, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Just when the corn market bulls looked like they had one foot in the grave early Wednesday, they are showing signs of life late this week. It appears President Trump breathed some life into the grain markets yesterday in an upbeat social media post to soybean farmers. Today’s gains in corn were especially impressive given the higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices that were bearish “outside-market” forces for the grains.
Still, commercial hedge selling as the corn harvest is in full swing is likely to keep any corn-market rallies modest in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said warm and mostly dry weather in the central U.S. will continue in much of the region through Saturday and crop maturation and harvest rates will be higher than usual before cooler temperatures arrive and rain increases Sunday into next Tuesday, with another round of rain Oct. 10-12.
“The periods of wetter weather should not produce heavy rain in many locations and mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork are most likely to result.” Drier weather will resume Oct. 13-16 and harvesting should quickly accelerate.Temperatures will be unseasonably warm into Saturday before cooling begins in the northwest Sunday and by the middle to late part of next week temperatures will be not far from normal. There is no risk of frost or freezes through this weekend with some frost and a few light freezes in the northwest next week.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at $4.14 and then at this week’s low of $4.10 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 10 3/4 cents to $10.23 3/4, near the daily high and hit a nearly two-week high. December soybean meal rose $5.70 to $279.30, near the daily high. December soybean oil rose 2 points to 50.44 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean and meal futures saw good short covering today, as well as follow-through buying interest after beans rallied late Wednesday on an upbeat social media post on U.S. soybeans from President Trump. The gains in meal were especially impressive today. Follow-through buying on Friday in meal and soybeans would produce technically bullish weekly high closes in December meal/November soybeans, which would be one clue that near-term market bottoms are in place. Still, commercial hedge pressure as the U.S. soybean harvest is in high gear will likely keep any price rallies modest.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable drying conditions are likely across the U.S. Midwest through the weekend and into early next week, supporting summer crop maturation and good harvest progress. The exception will be in northwestern parts of the region, where rain is expected from Nebraska to the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota late this weekend. A larger part of the northern and western Midwest will get rain next week while the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and lower eastern Midwest stay dry until late next week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.25 1/2 and then at $10.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.08 1/4 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $279.90 and then at $282.50. First support is seen at $275.00 and then at today’s low of $272.20.
Bean oil bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 50.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.20 cents and then at last week’s low of 48.89 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 5 1/2 cents to $5.14 3/4, nearer the daily high. December HRW gained 3 1/2 cents to $4.99, nearer the daily high. Spring wheat futures gained 3 1/2 cents to $5.60 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering today after hitting contract lows Wednesday. Gains in corn and soybean futures today also helped to lift the winter wheat futures.
Gains in wheat were limited today by bearish “outside markets” that included a higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and most of the Midwest soft wheat region will trend drier through the weekend, supporting planting and many areas have sufficient moisture for emergence and establishment. Rain should develop again during the next week. Canada’s Prairies will experience good drying conditions that will support the end of the harvest season. Rain is needed for the winter crop. Meanwhile, Russia’s spring wheat harvest is advancing well while some winter wheat areas experience ongoing dryness. Rain likely in central and western Ukraine this week will be ideal in bolstering soil moisture for seed germination and plant emergence. Dryness will continue to be a concern for unirrigated winter cereal areas of eastern Ukraine and portions of Russia’s Southern Region and in western Kazakhstan, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends on the daily bar charts have been restarted. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $5.19 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.27 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.02 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.10 1/2 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.88 and then at $4.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 50 points to 65.09 cents, near the daily low and closed at a six-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market saw more technical selling today as the near-term technical posture for cotton is firmly bearish. A higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices were bearish “outside-market” elements for the cotton market today.
World Weather Inc. today said dry and favorable conditions for U.S. cotton maturation and harvesting will occur through much of the next two weeks, with a few infrequent showers in each region and rain in portions of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma Monday into Wednesday that should result in mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork. A large part of the Panhandle will receive up to 0.50” of rain and locally more Monday into Wednesday while scattered showers bring up to 0.25” of rain and locally more to parts of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. High temperatures into Friday in the west will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with a few middle 80s in the northwest each day and some middle 90s today in the east while other areas see highs in the upper 80s to the middle 90s with a few upper 90s in the south. Some showers will return to West Texas and the Texas Panhandle during the second half of next week, slowing crop maturation. Showers elsewhere in the state will be infrequent and light, having a low impact on harvest activity.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 64.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.62 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.70 cents and then at the April low of 64.24 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.