Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $4.36 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical selling pressure today as the bulls are fading. Prices are now at the bottom of a trading range bound by the December low of $4.41 3/4 and the December high of $4.52 1/4. A drop below the December low would likely find pre-placed sell stop orders to drive futures prices even lower in the near term. Lower wheat prices today, on Russia-Ukraine peace talk hopes, also spilled over into selling pressure in corn. Also, key outside market Nymex crude oil futures today fell to an eight-month low.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate by 1 MMT to 137 MMT and noted a neutral to lower bias. He left his Argentine production estimate unchanged at 54 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward.
Brazilian farmers are increasingly adopting grain sorghum as an alternative to corn as a second crop following soybeans, especially if the corn might be planted late.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather is expected in most of Brazil and northern and central Argentina over the next two weeks, maintaining very good crop development potential. Southwestern Argentina is expected to dry out, but some timely rain may return again later in the month to prevent stress from becoming a serious threat to production.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading fast. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.41 1/4 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at $4.34 1/2 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 9 cents to $10.62 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. January soybean meal lost $1.10 to $302.40, near the daily low. January soybean oil fell 112 points to 48.36 cents, nearer the session low and hit a six-month low.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures today saw more technical selling pressure as all three products’ prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. Selling interest was limited in soybean meal as spreaders were likely featured selling bean oil and buying meal again today. Lower wheat futures prices due to Russia-Ukraine peace talks progress also spilled over into selling pressure in the soy complex today. Also bearish was key outside market Nymex crude oil futures today falling to an eight-month low and trending down.
Pro Farmer’s Cordonnier left his 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 176.0 million tons with a neutral bias. He noted rainfall last week and over the weekend in Brazil became much more regular, favoring crop development and the planting of the remaining soybeans. Cordonnier left his Argentine estimate unchanged at 49 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward.
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin on Tuesday sold about 323,000 metric tons of imported soybeans, or 62.9% of the total offered, according to two traders, and announced its third auction of the month as it prepares for U.S. imports, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks with enough rain to favorably support crop development and maintain or increase soil moisture. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais where little rain is expected through most of the period with some important showers advertised for Saturday into next Tuesday. Much of the rain Saturday into Tuesday should not be heavy, but the moisture will buy crops more time before greater stress to crops evolves. Rain during the next two weeks will be greatest from Mato Grosso into Goias as well as from southern Paraguay into northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina where the soil should be left saturated or nearly saturated and fieldwork will be sluggish. In Argentina, little rain is expected through Thursday, allowing fieldwork to increase in many areas before nearly widespread rain Friday through Monday and additional rain in northern Argentina Dec. 23-24 slows fieldwork while increasing soil moisture. Much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture in place to support crop development while most areas dry down into Thursday with some exceptions in the southwest where soil moisture is already short where stress to crops should rise until greater rain falls. The period of wet weather Friday into Monday should ensure most crops are left with adequate to favorable soil moisture with some likely exceptions in the southwest where rain should not be great enough to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture and stress to crops should rise until greater rain returns.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.80 and then at $10.90. First support is seen at $10.50 and then at $10.40.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $306.90 and then at last week’s high of $308.90. First support is seen at last week’s low of $298.70 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.75 cents. First resistance is seen at 49.00 cents and then at today’s high of 49.48 cents. First support is seen at 48.00 cents and then at 47.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 11 1/4 cents to $5.09 1/2, nearer the session low and hit a contract low. March HRW lost 7 cents to $5.05, near the daily low and hit a seven-week low. Spring wheat futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.65.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat markets today saw heavy technical selling pressure amid price downtrends firmly in place on the daily charts. Reports of progress regarding Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Berlin are negative for wheat prices this week, as any peace deal would likely mean more grain shipments coming out of the Black Sea region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he has an agreement with the U.S. to make security guarantees legally binding through a vote in Congress as part of a deal to end Russia’s war, according to Bloomberg.
Nymex crude oil futures today fell to an eight-month low, which was also a bearish outside-market element for the grain markets.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, “the region continues to be stuck with a lack of precipitation. At this time of the year it is not much of an issue for the region to be dry, but a change will be needed later in winter to eventually support spring crop potential. As of right now, there is one weather disturbance in the next two weeks that may give the region greater than a trace of moisture, which is in the Dec. 26 – 28 timeframe. If this system happens, it could produce some rain and snow.” Unusual warmth will dominate the pattern the next two weeks. However, a large cold air mass in Canada will need to be monitored for any potential piece of it that could try to come south. Strong winds late Wednesday and Thursday could cause blowing dust. Some gusts could be greater than 50 mph, especially in central and northwestern areas. In the Northern Plains, a strong area of low pressure will likely cause blizzard conditions in North Dakota and northern Minnesota late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds associated with this system will be extreme in the western half of the region though, with some of the highest gusts Wednesday in Montana and the western Dakotas possibly exceeding 70 or 75 mph. Travel delays will result from the windstorm and snow.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at this week’s high of $5.29 1/2. First support is seen at $5.00 and then at $4.90.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.14 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $5.20 1/2. First support is seen at $4.98 3/4 and then at $4.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 84 points to 63.10 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw technical selling pressure today, as technicals are firmly bearish, including a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Lower crude oil prices that hit an eight-month low today also prompted selling pressure in cotton, as did this week’s sell-offs in the grain futures markets.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through most of the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around a few infrequent showers. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers through the next two weeks with dry weather most common. The San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona will see mostly dry and favorable conditions for fieldwork through Monday before precipitation returns to the San Joaquin Valley Dec. 23-26 where increase in soil moisture should result while southern Arizona sees a few light showers Dec. 26-27.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 64.53 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 62.98 cents and then at 62.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.