Good morning!
Grain futures higher overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 4 3/4 cents and poised to produce a 10-month high close today. May soybeans were 4 3/4 cents higher as a bearish flag or pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. May soybean meal was up $4.10 and hit a 3.5-month high. May bean oil was 16 points up as it appears the spreaders are now unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads. May SRW wheat was up 9 cents and May HRW wheat was 7 cents higher and poised to close at a 10-month high close. On tap for the grains today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, with Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $97.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump presses for de-escalation of attacks on gas facilities in Iran, Qatar
--Iran strikes crucial Saudi Arabian refinery on the Red Sea and LNG export plant in Qatar
--Israeli military earlier attacked Iran’s giant South Pars gas field
--Crude oil advances, with WTI hitting $100 overnight and Brent reaching $119 a barrel
--Stocks slump on fears energy prices will feed inflation
--European gas futures surged as much as 35% to more than double their pre-war level
-- Asia buys most U.S. oil in three years as war blocks Mideast flows
FOMC leaves U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected… Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday left U.S. interest rates unchanged, as fully expected by the marketplace. The FOMC said it expects one interest rate cut this year due to increased uncertainty from the war in the Middle East. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that progress in reducing inflation is needed in order to resume lowering rates, and Fed officials raised their outlook for inflation in 2026 to 2.7% annually. Powell said in his press conference that he has no intention of resigning as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors until an investigation of the Fed by the Department of Justice has concluded.
Summer-like heat wave for western half of U.S. will stress crops and livestock… “The extremely anomalous warmth will occur from California and the southwestern desert region into the northern Rocky Mountain region and portions of the Northern Plains. Stress to livestock and winter crops is quite likely, including those in in hard red winter wheat areas, most of west Texas and the Northern Plains,” said Drew Lerner with World Weather Inc. The National Weather Service today said its forecast remains on track for a record-breaking Western U.S. high pressure ridge to further strengthen while expanding eastward into Great Plains late this week, bringing an almost summer-like heatwave to the region. Forecast high temperatures the next couple of days will intensify and soar into the 80s and 90s from California eastward through the Great Basin, Rockies, and into the Plains. Numerous and widespread daily and March monthly record highs are likely. The heat will gradually expand into the Plains this weekend, challenging many high-temperature records in the region as daytime highs climb into the80s, 90s, and triple digits. While the Plains states will remain dry, the Rockies will continue to see gusty winds across portions of the northern and central high Plains.
JBS strike in Greeley, Co. enters day 4 after press conference Wednesday… Workers who spoke at the event Wednesday near JBS USA corporate offices talked about the physical demands of their jobs, and why they want safer gear and working conditions. The strike involves about 3,800 workers at one of the nation’s largest meatpacking plants. Union leaders and employees gathered on Wednesday for the press conference. The strike began on Monday morning at the JBS plant in Greeley, where workers have been picketing near the facility’s main entrance. Chants of “Sí, se puede,” or “Yes, we can,” echoed throughout the demonstration, reflecting ongoing solidarity among workers. The press conference also featured a new voice supporting the strike: Kansas rancher Mike Callicrate, who said he traveled from St. Francis to stand with workers and to speak out against corporate practices in the beef industry. “We’re against abusive corporate power,” Callicrate said and as reported by Colorado’s 9News TV station. He criticized industry practices, claiming, “They haven’t paid a rancher a living income or what his/her animals are worth for decades.” He added that “those same companies are trying to get workers to work for less in terrible working conditions.” Callicrate said economic pressures have taken a toll on ranchers, noting, “It’s no wonder we’ve lost half our ranchers.” He said his goal in attending was to show solidarity and raise awareness.
U.S. propane prices spike… The price of U.S. propane is climbing at almost twice the pace of the natural gas it’s made from, threatening more pocketbook pain for consumers. The rise in propane prices is due to the Iran war disrupting trade in propane and other gas byproducts, prompting foreign buyers to seek alternative cargoes from the U.S. Higher wholesale costs are starting to work their way through the system, with distributors passing on the higher costs to consumers, according to Mike Stivala, chief executive officer at Suburban Propane Partners LP and as reported by Bloomberg.
Metals markets punished amid war in Middle East… Gold futures prices fell to a six-week low overnight and are down over $900 an ounce from the late-January record high. Silver also fell to a six-week low overnight and are down over $50 an ounce from its record high scored in late January. Copper gave up its gains for this year as the worsening war in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher and increased the risk of damage to the global economy. There were broad declines on the London Metal Exchange after Iran and Israel traded strikes on energy facilities in the Middle East. Copper, which started this year in bullish form and reached an all-time high in late January, has shed more than 9% this month.
Brazil’s currency supported as its central bank only modestly cuts rates… Brazil’s cautious start to interest-rate cuts is expected to support local assets, underpinning its currency, the real, and easing pressure on short-term yields, money managers say and as reported by Bloomberg. Policymakers led by Gabriel Galípolo delivered their first cut to the benchmark Selic rate since 2024, lowering it by a quarter point to 14.75%. “The rate cut was important, even though it was smaller than initially expected, and the statement also showed caution, but if external risks ease, there’s room for the market to recover,” said the report.
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Malaysian palm oil futures prices gain…Malaysian palm oil futures hovered around MYR 4,550 per MT on Thursday, recovering from weakness in the prior two sessions amid a softer ringgit and firmer soyoil prices on the Dalian market. Export momentum also strengthened, with cargo surveyors reporting March 1–15 shipments surged 43.5%–56.9% month-on-month, boosted by festive demand. Meanwhile, imports by top buyer India climbed 11% in February to a six-month high, aided by palm oil’s discount to rival oils. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier, is weighing new commodity taxes, including on palm oil, to keep its budget deficit within 3% of the GDP, a step that could tighten global supply. However, futures remain on track for a weekly decline of about 0.4% so far, reversing recent gains, as rising cost pressures weigh on sentiment. Supply chain disruptions and feedstock shortages linked to Middle East tensions have pushed up raw material prices. Trading in palm oil futures will pause on Friday for the Eid break and resume on March 24.
Cattle futures markets consolidate at mid-week… April live cattle on Wednesday rose $0.175 to $235.40. March feeder cattle lost $1.075 to $358.725. The cattle futures markets saw a pause after good gains seen earlier this week. Selling was limited by the recent gains in boxed beef prices. Workers are striking at the Greeley, Colorado JBS facility. The company has shifted cattle deliveries to facilities in Grand Island, NE and Cactus, TX. Cattle traders will continue to closely monitor this situation. No cash cattle trading had been reported by USDA as of midday Wednesday. The agency on Monday reported lower cash cattle trading last week, with the average price of $234.83—down $5.11 from the week prior. In the Plains states, high temperatures will reach the lower 100s in some places in the southwest this Friday and Saturday. The heat will notably stress livestock, especially after the rapid change from early-week unusually cold weather. Cattle futures traders are looking ahead to Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report.
Lean hog futures market treading water so far this week… April lean hog futures on Wednesday rose $0.025 to $93.75, near mid-range. Lean hog futures this week are pausing as bulls work to stabilize the market after recent selling pressure. This week’s minor gains in hog futures prices, amid solid gains in the cattle futures, is not a good sign for hogs. The near-term technical posture for the lean hog futures market has turned less bullish the past two weeks. The latest CME lean hog index is up 10 cents at $91.86. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 7 cents at $91.93. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $68.74.