Advice Alert: Cotton producers: Initiate 2025-crop sales... Nearby cotton futures pushed above our 65-cent target. We advise cotton producers to sell 15 % of expected production, initiating 2025 crop sales. Given the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi, we will evaluate our target after the dust settles, but have a preliminary target of 70 cents.
Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 cents to $4.34, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today paused early on, following recent stronger gains, but then the bulls stepped in later in the session to do some better buying. Speculative bulls know that with U.S. corn harvest getting closer to its end stages, commercial hedge selling pressure will begin to subside. Corn futures market technicals have also turned more bullish to suggest the specs will continue to be buyers.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. corn harvest weather will advance around infrequent rainfall during the next 10 days. No crop quality problems are expected because of periodic rain. Rain expected in Brazil this weekend and next week should be sufficient and widespread enough to improve crop development in areas that have not seen much moisture recently. Argentina has been seeing and will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.36 1/4 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 3/4 cent to $10.94 1/2, nearer the session high. December soybean meal rose $2.20 to $308.70, near mid-range and hit a 4.5-month high. December soybean oil fell 10 points to 50.16 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw a normal pause from recent strong gains, as the bulls caught their breath. The soybean meal futures bulls are keeping their pedal to the metal, which is limiting selling interest in beans. The technical postures soybeans and meal futures are firmly bullish, suggesting the speculators will continue to pursue the long sides in beans and meal. Spreaders were again featured buying soybean meal and selling bean oil futures today.
State-owned COFCO bought about 180,000 MT of U.S. soybeans for December and January shipment through Pacific Northwest ports, which is the first known purchase for the marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast is drier overall than what was advertised earlier this week. After rain today into Thursday from east-central and southeastern Missouri to Kentucky and Ohio, precipitation during the remainder of the next two weeks will be infrequent, poorly organized, and often light, allowing fieldwork to advance well. Temperatures will likely be warmer than normal through the next week in northern parts of the western Corn Belt, while other areas see mostly near temperatures through Sunday and warmer-than-normal temperatures during the early to middle part of next week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.60. First resistance is seen at $11.00 and then at this week’s high of $11.08. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $10.83 and then at this week’s low of $10.70 1/4.
December soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and still have momentum. A steep price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $312.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at $312.40 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $304.10 and then at $300.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.94 cents and then at last week’s high of 51.46 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.56 cents and then at 49.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 3 1/4 cents to $5.32 1/4, near the daily high and closed at a two-month high close. December HRW gained 2 3/4 cents to $5.22 3/4, near mid-range and closed at a six-week high close. December spring wheat futures fell 1 1/4 cents to $5.60 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical buying featured today following recent good gains. Wheat bulls are hoping Thursday’s summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi will eventually produce more Chinese demand for U.S. wheat. Gains in corn futures again today were also a supportive element for the wheat futures markets.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas are experiencing mostly good weather for planting, emergence and establishment. Some greater rain may be needed soon in the southwestern Plains and in the northern Midwest. Moisture is also needed in the Pacific Northwest. Canada’s eastern Prairies are plenty wet and need some drier weather. A boost in precipitation and soil moisture is needed in the central and southwestern Prairies to improve winter crop development potential in the spring. Neighboring areas of Montana might also benefit from some additional moisture. Wheat areas in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan will receive waves of rain during the next ten days to improve crop and field conditions.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.35 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.16 3/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.25 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $5.13 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $5.05.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 96 points to 66.01 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Technical buying was also featured in cotton today as the near-term chart posture has also become more bullish just recently. Rallying grain futures lately and record highs in U.S. stock index prices this week are also bullish for cotton.
Cotton bulls are hoping the Thursday summit meeting between President Trump and China’s President XI will be a positive one that will lead to more China purchases of U.S. cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said much of the next two weeks will be dry and cotton harvesting should advance well around a few infrequent showers, with some discolored cotton likely to be bleached white by the drying. A few light showers will occur in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma Friday into Saturday while much of the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend receive 0.15-0.65” of rain and locally more with a few light showers in south Texas.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are now trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 64.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 66.10 cents and then at 66.50 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 64.34 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You are now 15% sold on 2025-crop
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. You are now 15% sold on 2025-crop