Corn
Price action: December corn rose 1 1/4 cents to $4.31 1/2, nearer the daily high and for the week gained 8 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: It was another good week for the corn market bulls, which sets the table for better speculator buying interest early next week, including from the chart-based traders. December corn prices remain in a near-term uptrend.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation in the Midwest during the next two weeks will be infrequent, poorly organized, and often light, allowing fieldwork to advance well, as the U.S. corn harvest winds down. Temperatures will be warmer than normal most often through the next week in northern parts of the western Corn Belt, while other areas see mostly near temperatures through Sunday and warmer-than-normal temperatures next week.
30-day outlook: Corn harvest is winding down, which will also see commercial hedge selling backing off. That’s price-friendly for corn. There are also rumblings U.S. lawmakers may reach an agreement to reopen the federal government next week. That would begin to give grain traders the much-needed fundamental data to drive daily price action. The government reopening would likely be a bit price-friendly for the grain because of the reduced uncertainty. But as the government shutdown continues, market participants have been relying more on spreads and cash basis to get a better grip on supply and demand fundamentals.
90-day outlook: Strong domestic and export demand for corn continues to support the corn futures market.
Many producers have held off on marketing their crop for more profitable price levels. The rally in the U.S. dollar index to a three-month high this week is a negative for the corn market, as it makes U.S. corn less price-competitive on the world trade market.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 7 1/2 cents to $11.15 1/4, near the daily high and hit a 13-month high. For the week, January beans rose 55 cents. December soybean meal rose $6.00 to $321.60, nearer the daily high and hit a nearly nine-month high. On the week, December meal gained $23.40. December bean oil fell 97 points to 48.68 cents, nearer the session low, hit a 4.5-month low and for the week down 159 points.
5-day outlook: The technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes in soybean and meal futures markets today has the chart-based bulls more fired up to continue to be buyers early next week. Technicals remain fully bullish for beans and meal, but the Relative Strength Index is flashing very overbought conditions in both markets at present. Don’t be surprised to see some corrective selling pressure at some point next week. Spreaders continue to buy meal and sell bean oil futures.
World Weather Inc. today said rain expected in Brazil this weekend and next week should be sufficient and widespread enough to improve crop development in areas that have not seen much moisture recently. However, there is some concern over subsoil moisture remaining low and follow up rain will be very important. Argentina has been seeing and will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development during the next two weeks, although some drying is likely in the east.
30-day outlook: There is some doubt among traders about China fulfilling its commitment of purchasing 12 million tons of soybeans this year and 25 million next year. “Whether China secures 25 MMTs in future years depends on the price relationships between South America and the U.S. China buys what China needs at the cheapest price offered—its’ that simple,” said one veteran market analyst in a note and as quoted by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. soybean harvest is in its final stages, which means waning commercial hedge selling pressure in futures.
90-day outlook: Export demand for U.S. soybeans, hopefully fresh economic data from USDA in the coming weeks, or sooner as the U.S. government reopens, and weather in Brazil and Argentina as their growing seasons are under way, will be main fundamental topics for soybean traders in the next few months. Traders are expecting a large Brazilian soybean crop to go in the ground this year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 9 3/4 cents to $5.34, near the daily high and for the week up 21 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat gained 11 1/2 cents to $5.24 1/2, near the daily high and up 23 cents for the week. Spring wheat futures gained 2 1/2 cents to $5.53, about mid-range for the day, and down 7 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: It was another very good week for the winter wheat futures market bulls, including technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes in December SRW and HRW futures. That sets the stage for more technical buying interest early next week.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, dry-biased weather through at least the next 10 days will continue to be great for late-season fieldwork to advance. However, greater rainfall would still be beneficial for western production areas of the region. In the Northern Plains, little to no precipitation through at least next Wednesday will be great for any remaining late-season fieldwork to advance. However, there remains an ongoing need for greater moisture in Montana. Some occasional rain and snow is a possibility starting Thursday. Strong winds are likely in Montana Sunday with some gusts potentially greater than 50 mph.
30-day outlook: There were recent rumors in the wheat markets that China may be poised to purchase more U.S. wheat. This week’s upbeat summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has wheat market bulls even more hopeful for some better Chinese demand for U.S. wheat in the coming week and months.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a three-month high and prices are trending up. Trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Continued strength in the USDX would be a bearish outside-market element for wheat futures markets, making U.S. wheat less price-competitive on world trade markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 42 points to 65.54 cents, nearer the session high and for the week up 134 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw some short covering and fresh speculator buying today as prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart. The cotton market has recently shown signs of bottoming. Yet, recent price history shows fledgling price uptrends, like the one at present, tend to fizzle out after a few weeks. Price gains in the grain futures markets continue to be a supportive element for cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said frost and freezes occurring in West Texas overnight may have ended the growing season for some areas, but not all. The impact of the cold was unlikely to be very great, although because of late planting and some milder-than-usual summer weather not all bolls are open unless the plants were chemically treated. Some of the late crop could experience boll lock as a result of the freezes; though the impact on total production should be very low if there is any. Rain in the Delta and southeastern states earlier this week disrupted some farming activity, but the impact on cotton quality should be relatively low. Drier weather will be quick to resume minimizing the impact. Southwestern U.S. cotton harvesting will advance well over the next 10 days due to warmer-than-usual temperatures and no rain.
30-day outlook: This week’s positive summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has cotton bulls more hopeful the Chinese will buy more of the U.S. fiber. The major U.S. stock indexes this week hit record highs. That’s a cotton-price-friendly outside-market factor for the cotton futures market that could help sustain a price uptrend in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a three-month high. The USDX is an important outside-market for the cotton futures. Continued strength in the USDX in the coming weeks/months would be a bearish element for cotton, making U.S. cotton prices less competitive on the global trade markets.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.