Corn
Price action: March corn fell 5 3/4 cents to $4.40 3/4, near the daily low and hit a two-week low. For the week, December corn was down 4 cents.
5-day outlook: March corn closed at a technically bearish weekly low close today, suggesting some follow-through chart-based selling from the speculators next week. Corn futures remain in the middle of a choppy and sideways trading range but today’s price action gave the bears momentum.
Bulls today got no help from USDA today reporting daily U.S. corn sales of 250,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
China’s total grain output hit a new record this year, up 1.2% from 2024 to 714.9 MMT, according to its statistics bureau earlier today.
30-day outlook: Export demand for U.S. corn has been good. USDA this week gave a 125-million-bu. boost to U.S. corn exports for the 2025-26 marketing year. While corn futures prices have languished the past few weeks, the hefty U.S. corn sales abroad should keep a floor under futures prices.
90-day outlook: A down-trending U.S. dollar index that hit a six-week low this week and the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point interest rate cut are price-friendly for commodities. The government took a break from reporting production in December but will be back in January. The corn production estimate may be the most closely scrutinized figure when the January data comes out.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 16 3/4 cents to $10.76 3/4, near the daily low, hit a six-week low and for the week were down 29 1/4 cents. January soybean meal closed up 40 cents at $302.50, near mid-range and on the week down $4.90. January bean oil lost 75 points to 50.07 cents, near the daily low, hit a two-week low and for the week were down 162 points.
5-day outlook: January soybeans today saw a technically bearish weekly low close as prices are trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. This suggests more selling pressure in beans early next week. The one positive element for soybeans is the fact that meal futures today held near steady, while beans suffered a solid sell off.
USDA today reported 132,000 MT of U.S. soybeans were sold for delivery to China during 2025-26. Daily sales of 104,328 MT of U.S. soymeal to Mexico were also reported. Of that total, 93,895 MT is for 2025-26 and 10,433 MT is for 2026-27.
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin will auction another half million metric tons of soybeans next week, its second such sale over the past two weeks, as it moves to make room for U.S. arrivals.
Soy complex traders will closely examine the monthly NOPA crush report that is due out Monday at 11:00 a.m. CST.
30-day outlook: Bean traders are more closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecasts “are more bearish for grain and oilseed markets because of well distributed rain in Brazil and Argentina as well as Paraguay and Uruguay. World Weather still believes some of the rain is overdone, though it will be time timely and supportive of crop development. No excessive heat is predicted in Argentina or Brazil during the next two weeks, conserving soil moisture when rain is not falling.”
90-day outlook: One price-positive element for the soy complex futures recently has been the depreciation of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market—making U.S. grains less expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Trends in the currency markets tend to last longer than trends in other markets. That suggests the weaker greenback could remain a positive fundamental for the grains the next few months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat fell 4 1/4 cents to $5.29 1/4, near the session low and closed at a six-week-low close. For the week, March SRW was down 7 1/4 cents. March HRW wheat fell 4 1/4 cents to $5.18, near the session low and hit a six-week low. For the week, March HRW was down 13 1/4 cents. March spring wheat futures fell 1/2 a cent to $5.75 3/4, mid-range for the day. March spring wheat was up 2 3/4 cents for the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets remain trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. That, combined with today’s technically bearish weekly low closes, will keep the speculative bears angling to play the short sides in the near term.
Ample global supplies continue to hang over the wheat futures markets. Argentina’s Rosario exchange raised its 2025-26 wheat production estimate by 2.2 MMT, to a record 27.7 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production at 25.5 MMT, while USDA’s latest estimate is 24 MMT. Russia’s seaborne grain exports rose in November for the first time this season to 6.0 MMT, up 26.6% from the same month a year-ago, according to shipping data from industry sources.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said snow-free areas of Ukraine and Russia’s southern region will not be vulnerable to crop damaging conditions in the next 10 days, despite short-term cooling this weekend and early next week. China weather will remain favorable for this time of year with a little snow to fall infrequently in the north and some rain periodically in the south. Temperatures will be non-threatening. India weather will remain largely dry during the next 10 days, except for a few showers in the far south. Eastern Australia summer crops will benefit from scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next week to 10 days. No general soaking is expected, though what rain does fall should prove helpful for developing summer crops – especially those not irrigated. This week’s excessive heat in parts of Australia stressed crops. More heat and dryness is expected in the southeast and south-central crop areas next week, but it will not be as hot in Queensland or northeastern New South Wales
90-day outlook: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks have not yet yielded a ceasefire between the two warring nations. President Trump said late this week he is still pressing both countries to agree to a ceasefire. While there have been reports of some progress being made, most agree a lasting ceasefire remains very elusive. Wheat traders will continue to monitor this situation. A ceasefire would imply more wheat supplies being shipped out of the Black Sea region in the coming months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 14 points to 63.83 cents, nearer the session low and for the week lost 10 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market’s solidly bearish near-term technical posture continues to limit buying interest from the speculators. Cotton traders will look to the grain futures markets for price direction next week. And the grain futures markets are looking very heavy at present.
30-day outlook: This week USDA bumped the average U.S. cotton yield by 10 lbs. which led to a slightly higher-than-expected production estimate despite harvest area remaining unchanged. Combined with a 100,000-bale cut to domestic use and that will likely continue to pressure cotton futures prices well into the new year.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a six-week low, which somewhat limited selling pressure in the cotton futures market, as did a move in the major U.S. stock indexes to record, or close-to-record highs. If the USDX continues to trend lower and stock indexes remain elevated in the coming months, such would be underlying bullish elements for better buying interest in cotton futures and better U.S. cotton sales abroad.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.