Crops Analysis | Corn ends week on a bullish note

Aug. 29, 2025

Pro Farmer's Crops Analysis
Pro Farmer’s Crops Analysis
(Pro Farmer)

New Advice: We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the remaining 10% of 2024-crop production to get to 10% priced.

New Advice: We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell 15% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% priced.

Corn

Price action: December corn futures rose 10 1/4 cents to $4.20 1/4, near the daily high and hit a four-week high. For the week, December corn gained 8 3/4 cents.

5-day outlook: December corn today saw heavy short covering, perceived bargain hunting and scored technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes, which set the market up for follow-through chart-based buying next Tuesday. Markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

The corn market was also boosted today as the European Commission sharply cut its forecast for corn production in the EU this season, to below last season’s volume.

World Weather Inc. today said below-normal rainfall is expected in the central U.S. Midwest over the next week to 10 days. Cool temperatures are likely to abate temporarily this weekend into early next week and then a new surge of cold is expected that may bring some frost to the upper Midwest late next week into the following weekend.

30-day outlook: Current U.S. corn prices, which are still by no means elevated by historical standards, continue to garner strong demand, both domestically and in the export market. This comes even though the marketplace continues to seem satiated by the prospect of a record U.S. corn crop. Corn traders could still have in the back of their minds the Pro Farmer Crop Tour that indicated the crop may not finish in fine form.

90-day outlook: U.S. corn harvesting will be in full swing by mid-October, which suggests increased commercial hedging pressure as corn comes from the field into the local elevators. That could limit the price upside for the corn market until harvest starts to wind down in November. Corn traders will continue to monitor progress on new trade deals between the U.S. and its major trading counterparts, including and especially China.

What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.

Soybeans

Price action: November soybeans rose 6 1/2 cents to $10.54 1/2 and near the daily high. For the week, November beans fell 4 cents. September soybean meal futures fell $2.70 to $283.60, nearer the daily low, hit a two-week low and on the week down $13.10. September soybean oil futures fell 28 points to 51.47 cents and for the week down 337 points.

5-day outlook: The soybean market got some traction today from solid gains in corn and some short covering in winter wheat futures. However, the slumping soybean meal market has the bean market bulls worried. Meal will have to show price strength soon if the soybean bulls want to keep the present price uptrend on the daily chart alive. Traders will closely scrutinize next Tuesday’s monthly USDA crush report. The U.S. soybean crush likely rose in July to 6.218 million short tons, or 207.2 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters.

World Weather Inc. today said areas from southeastern Missouri to southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be mostly dry through Monday “and stress to crops and declines in soybean yields are likely to increase as soil moisture is already short and the remaining moisture is lost to evaporation.” Mild temperatures during the next week will reduce increases in stress and at least some rain in much of the region Tuesday into Thursday will induce at least some benefit to soybeans, but the rain should come too late to induce significant increases in yields, said the forecaster. Mild temperatures through the next week along with adequate to favorable subsoil moisture in much of the remainder of the Midwest “should maintain favorable conditions for crop development and very high yield potentials while most of the region dries down through this weekend before rain returns next week.”

30-day outlook: As the calendar turns to September, U.S. soybean harvest will pick up and that means more commercial hedge selling pressure as farmers gather their crops and unload them at the local elevators. However, hedge pressure may be less intense in the coming months as producers look to store their crop if cash basis levels remain weak. Early yield reports from the fields will likely influence soybean futures prices, especially after the Pro Farmer Crop Tour last week revealed what may be a less-than-ideal finish for the soybean crop.

90-day outlook: All eyes will remain on China in the coming months as the top global soybean importer continues to stall on U.S. new-crop purchases. This situation has significantly widened soybean cash basis levels, with increasingly low river levels adding insult to injury.

What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.

Hedgers: NEW ADVICE: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.

Cotton

Price action: December cotton futures fell 76 points to 66.54 cents, near the daily low and on the week down 147 points.

5-day outlook: Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in December cotton futures sets the stage for follow-through selling interest from the chart-based speculators come next Tuesday. Markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Tuesday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress data will be closely scrutinized by cotton traders.

World Weather Inc. today said dryland cotton in southwestern parts of west Texas needs rain. Some showers are possible this weekend, but a general soaking may not occur in the driest areas. Other areas in west Texas will get rain with some significant amounts in the north and central parts of the region. Rain in the Panhandle and rolling plains of Texas should be abundant along with that in southwestern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be cooler than usual during the next seven days, which will conserve soil moisture and slow crop growth rates. Timely rain is expected in the Texas Blacklands and upper coast this weekend, improving late-season crop development potential. South Texas rainfall will be erratic and light enough to allow fieldwork to advance around the rain, although harvesting will be disrupted. South Texas may be wettest late next week. U.S. Delta crops have dried out greatly, resulting in some crop stress. Rain is likely this weekend in the central and south, offering at least some relief. The southeastern states will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine, said the forecaster.

30-day outlook: Veteran market watchers also know that history shows September and October can be extra turbulent trading months for the stock and financial markets. Any stock market gyrations in the coming weeks will almost certainly have an impact on the cotton futures market. Also, the FOMC meeting on Sept. 16-17 is highly anticipated because the Fed is expected to lower U.S. interest rates by 0.25%, with an outside chance the central bank might do a 0.5% rate cut. The easier Fed monetary policy this fall should be a bullish macro element for the cotton market.

90-day outlook: The progress, or lack thereof on U.S. trade deals with its major counterparts will also likely influence the cotton market this fall, especially the ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China. China is a major cotton importer.

What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.

Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.

Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.

Wheat

Price action: December SRW wheat futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $5.34 1/4, near the daily high and on the week up 7 cents. December HRW wheat rose 4 cents to $5.19 3/4 and near the daily high. For the week, December HRW fell 1 1/4 cents. December spring wheat futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.80.

5-day outlook: Short covering was featured in winter wheat futures to end the trading week and month. The technically bullish weekly high close in December SRW wheat today may encourage some follow-through buying next Tuesday from the speculators. Markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

World Weather Inc. today said that in the Northern Plains, some rain is expected in the next seven days. However, most of this is still expected to be light and erratic and may not have much of an impact on topsoil moisture. Conditions will be mostly supportive of fieldwork and harvest advancement. Some frost is possible in central and eastern production areas in the mornings Wednesday through Sep. 6. There might be some crop damage as a result. The potential for freezes is low, but not out of the realm of possibility, said the forecaster.

30-day outlook: The coming weeks are likely to see less commercial hedge selling pressure in the wheat futures markets. The U.S. HRW crop is virtually complete. Spring wheat harvest progressed to over half complete as of Aug. 24, per USDA, which is slightly behind year ago at this time.

90-day outlook: Barring a significant wheat futures market rally in the coming months, 2025-26 U.S. wheat acres could be significantly reduced compared to this year. Fall plantings may decline due to current lower prices. However, improved export demand for U.S. wheat could boost futures prices.

What to Do: Get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.

Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.