Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.32, nearer mid-range and hit another four-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw decent follow-through speculator buying. Gains in soybeans and wheat futures again today also supported buying interest in corn. Corn market technicals have turned firmly bullish to suggest the specs will continue to play the long side in the near term.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier notes a weaker La Nina is forming in the Pacific, which historically has led to lighter-than-normal precipitation in Brazil, a key to watch out for in the coming months. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 140.0 MMT with a neutral bias but notes first-crop corn is off to a good start.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see three rounds of well-organized precipitation through the next two weeks with the soil dry enough in much of the region that prolonged delays to fieldwork should not result. The moisture will ease drought conditions. The greatest rain event through the next 10 days will occur today into Wednesday, with central Minnesota to eastern Kansas and Missouri to Kentucky to southern into central and eastern Ohio seeing significant rain that will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture in the drier areas. Drier weather will resume Thursday into Nov. 5 and fieldwork should steadily accelerate. Temperatures will be warmer than normal most often through the next week in northern parts of the western Corn Belt, while other areas often see temperatures that are not far from normal.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.36 ¼ and then at $4.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 10 1/4 cents to $10.95 1/4, near mid-range and hit another 12-month high. December soybean meal rose $8.30 to $306.50, nearer the daily high and hit a 4.5-month high. December soybean oil fell 51 points to 50.26 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw follow-through speculator buying interest. The technical postures in soybeans and meal futures are firmly bullish, suggesting the specs will continue to pursue the long sides in soybeans and meal. Spreaders were featured buying soybean meal and selling bean oil futures today.
In his weekly report, crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier increased his Brazilian soy production estimate 2.0 MMT to 177.0 MMT with a neutral to higher bias. He notes the expected acreage has been working higher with increases as high as 5.9% in some regions, including Mato Grosso do Sul.
World Weather Inc. today said concern remains for some of Brazil’s soybean country due to some dryness that is prevailing. Improving rainfall will come late this week through early November, but until then pockets of dryness will prevail. Southern Brazil’s early soybean planting and development are advancing well. Argentina has been seeing and will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.08 and then at $11.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.83 and then at this week’s low of $10.70 1/4.
December soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and still have momentum. A steep price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $312.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $307.80 and then at $310.00. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at today’s low of $294.80.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.94 cents and then at last week’s high of 51.46 cents. First support is seen at 49.68 cents and then at 49.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 3 cents to $5.29, near mid-range and hit a six-week high early on. December HRW gained 5 3/4 cents to $5.20, near mid-range and hit a two-month high. December spring wheat rose 1 1/2 cent to $5.61 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw decent follow-through buying interest today, to mark the fourth straight session of higher closes for December HRW, and the fourth straight session of steady-to-higher closes for December SRW. Bulls are hoping the U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that may include more U.S. wheat purchases from China. Gains in corn and soybean futures today also supported the wheat markets.
World Weather Inc. today said frost and light freezes occurred in southern Argentina this morning. Most of the officially reported low temperatures were right at the point of freezing. Pre-dawn temperatures suggested the coldest air was of very short duration suggesting the impact on reproducing and filling wheat and barley should have been low. Another cool morning is expected Wednesday and some computer forecast models have suggested another shot of cold “may” occur early next week – although confidence on that event is very low today.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.35 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.16 3/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.25 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.05 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 49 points to 65.05 cents, near the daily high and closing at a nearly three-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw short covering and some perceived bargain hunting. Firmer grain futures prices today and record highs in U.S. stock index prices this week were also bullish for cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said good crop maturation and harvest weather is expected in Texas. Some frost and light freezes may impact parts of cotton country in the west Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The impact may end the growing season a little sooner than a few producers would like. Rain in the Delta during the weekend delayed harvesting and raised some cotton fiber quality concerns. Crops in the southeastern states were dry, although rain will reach those areas early this week. None of the rain in these areas will last very long and crop conditions should improve. Southwestern U.S. cotton harvesting will advance well over the next ten days due to warmer than usual temperatures and no rain, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today, to better suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.35 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.34 cents and then at last week’s low of 63.65 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.