PF Report Reaction: March S&D Report delivers no major surprises

Market reaction

Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading narrowly mixed, soybeans were mostly 6 to 9 cents higher, wheat futures were mostly 3 to 6 cents lower and cotton was steady to 10 points lower.

As of 11:15 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are mostly 7 to 9 cents higher, SRW and HRS wheat futures are 7 to 10 cents lower, HRW wheat is 2 to 6 cents lower and cotton is 50 to 60 points lower.

U.S. carryover

Corn: 1.342 billion bu. for 2022-23; up from 1.267 billion bu. in February

Beans: 210 million bu. for 2022-23; down from 225 million bu. in February

Wheat: 568 million bu. for 2022-23; unchanged from 568 million bu. in February

Cotton: 4.3 million bales for 2022-23; unchanged from 4.3 million bales in February

USDA raised its 2022-23 corn ending stocks forecast 75 million bu. from last month, which was greater than the 41-million-bu. increase traders expected. The only change was a 75-million-bu. cut to exports, which are now projected at 1.850 billion bushels. USDA lowered its 2022-23 average on-farm cash price forecast by a dime from last month to $6.60.

USDA cut its soybean ending stocks forecast by 15 million bu. from last month, which was slightly more than the 5-million-bu. drop traders expected. USDA cut projected crush 10 million bu. (to 2.220 billion bu.) but that was more than offset by a 25-million-bu. increase to exports (to 2.015 billion bu.). USDA kept its 2022-23 national average on-farm cash price projection at $14.30.

USDA left its wheat ending stocks forecast unchanged this month, whereas traders expected a 5-million-bu. increase. USDA made no changes to its 2022-23 wheat balance sheet. The national average on-farm cash price projection was unchanged at $9.00.

USDA left its cotton carryover projection unchanged this month, whereas the average pre-report estimate expected a 40,000-bale decrease. USDA made no adjustments to its balance sheet. Its average on-farm cash price forecast remained at 83.0 cents.

Global carryover

Corn: 296.46 MMT for 2022-23; up from 295.28 MMT in February
— compares with 305.69 MMT in 2021-22

Beans: 100.01 MMT for 2022-23; down from 102.03 MMT in February
— compares with 99.0 MMT in 2021-22

Wheat: 267.20 MMT for 2022-23; down from 269.34 MMT in February
— compares with 271.45 MMT in 2021-22

Cotton: 91.15 million bales for 2022-23; up from 89.08 million bales in February
— compares with 86.11 million bales in 2021-22

Global production highlights

Argentina beans: 33.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 41.0 MMT in February
— compares with 43.9 MMT in 2021-22

Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 153.0 MMT in February
— compares with 129.5 MMT in 2021-22

Argentina wheat: 12.9 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 12.5 MMT in February
— compares with 22.15 MMT in 2021-22

Australia wheat: 39.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 38.0 MMT in February
— compares with 36.24 MMT in 2021-22

China wheat: 137.72 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 137.72 MMT in February
— compares with 136.95 MMT in 2021-22

Canada wheat: 33.82 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 33.82 MMT in February
— compares with 22.42 MMT in 2021-22

EU wheat: 134.70 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 134.70 MMT in February
— compares with 138.22 MMT in 2021-22

Russia wheat: 92.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 92.0 MMT in February
— compares with 75.16 MMT in 2021-22

Ukraine wheat: 21.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 21.0 MMT in February
— compares with 33.01 MMT in 2021-22

China corn: 277.2 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 277.2 MMT in February
— compares with 272.55 MMT in 2021-22

Argentina corn: 40.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 47.0 MMT in February
— compares with 49.5 MMT in 2021-22

Brazil corn: 125.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 125.0 MMT in February
— compares with 116.0 MMT in 2021-22

Ukraine corn: 27.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 27.0 MMT in February
— compares with 42.13 MMT in 2021-22

South Africa corn: 16.7 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 16.7 MMT in February
— compares with 16.14 MMT in 2021-22

China cotton: 29.5 million bales for 2022-23; compares with 28.5 million bales in February
— compares with 26.8 million bales in 2021-22