White House Getting Impatient as Democrats Slow Walk Lingering Issues

Sens. Sanders and Manchin renew testy exchanges | House Dems Caucus Wednesday

Washington Focus

Both the House and Senate are in session this week.

In the Senate: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he will tee up a floor vote for Wednesday on advancing a Democrat-drafted overhaul of U.S. election laws, a move that is very likely to be blocked by Republicans and set up another confrontation over whether to alter or end the filibuster — something Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has consistently said he would not support. In a letter to all Senate Democrats, Schumer said he will take steps Monday to set up the vote for later in the week on “consequential voting rights legislation that has the support of our entire caucus.”

The House could consider three labor-related bills: Workplace accommodations for nursing mothers — such as reasonable break times and private lactation areas — would be expanded under HR 3110. Employers would be prohibited from limiting, segregating, or classifying job applicants based on their age under HR 3992. Federal domestic violence prevention and services grants would be reauthorized at a level of $270 million annually from fiscal 2022 through 2026 under HR 2119

Democratic member discord continues regarding the Build Back Better/budget reconciliation package. The latest kerfuffle is the public dispute between Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) over the size and scope of a multitrillion-dollar spending package. The differences escalated Friday after Sanders published an opinion article in Manchin’s home state newspaper urging him to support the landmark Democratic proposal.

Sanders, writing in the Charleston Gazette-Mail (link), attacked the legislation’s opponents — “every Republican in Congress as well as the drug companies, the insurance companies, the fossil fuel industry and the billionaire class” — as defenders of a status quo “in which the very rich get richer while ordinary Americans continue to struggle to make ends meet.” House progressives have vowed to block the Senate-passed, bipartisan $550 billion infrastructure bill until Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) commit to support a version of the larger measure, which would carry many liberal priorities into law.

Manchin quickly issued a sharp response: “This isn’t the first time an out-of-stater has tried to tell West Virginians what is best for them despite having no relationship to our state,” he said a tweet. He added that he would not vote for what he termed a “reckless expansion of government programs.”

President Biden Friday evening was asked what his message would be to Manchin and Sinema. “I’m about to deliver it,” he said. He declined to specify if that meant he’d speak to them later Friday. Asked if there was a deadline for negotiations, he replied: “No… I’m working hard to try to get it moving as quickly as I can,” he added.

The White House has signaled its intent to compromise on the economic package. “I’m convinced we’re going to get it done. We’re not going to get $3.5 trillion. We’ll get less than that, but we’re going to get it,” President Biden said during a visit to a child-care center in Connecticut on Friday. Biden said he’d like to see his economic plan address a “whole range of issues,” even if funding for individual provisions must be pared back or timed to expire to keep the legislation’s cost down. “The question is how much of what is important can we get in the legislation,” Biden told reporters in Connecticut, after earlier conceding the bill would cost less than the $3.5 trillion over a decade that House progressives want. “I’m of the view that it’s important to establish the principles on a whole range of issues without guaranteeing we get the whole 10 years,” he said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a letter to House Democrats last Monday that the consensus among them “is to do fewer things well, so that we can still have a transformative impact on families in the workplace and responsibly address the climate crisis.” Pelosi and her leadership team scheduled a closed-door caucus meeting of House Democrats for Wednesday to discuss the work on Biden’s plan, according to an email sent to members on Saturday.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on the Pod Save America podcast that the disagreements reflected “democracy working… When it comes down to it, no bill is perfect,” she said. “It’s not going to be everything that Joe Biden wants; it’s not going to be everything Joe Manchin wants. It’s ultimately a compromise,” she said.

Regarding the debt limit, President Biden signed a bill that provides a short-term increase in the U.S. debt limit, the White House said on Thursday night. His signature on the legislation, approved by the House last Tuesday night and narrowly by the Senate the prior week, averts the threat of a default. The bill allows the Treasury Department to meet its financial obligations only until roughly Dec. 3, lawmakers said, but some private analysts note the deadline is more likely mid-December into early January.

Economic Reports for the Week

On Wednesday, the Fed issues its Beige Book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts. Focus will be on the mentions of higher prices and energy price and supply concerns.

Monday, Oct. 18

Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.

Tuesday, Oct. 19

Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.

Wednesday, Oct. 20

MBA Mortgage Applications
Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.

Thursday, Oct. 21

Jobless Claims
National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.
Philadelphia Fed diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.
Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, Oct. 22

IHS Markit releases the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

China this week releases several reports that traders will note regarding trade data and its third quarter pork output and inventories.

Monday, Oct. 18

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Crop Progress
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
China’s second batch of trade data, including corn, wheat, sugar, pork imports
China 3Q pork output and inventories
GrainCom conference, Geneva, day 1