Vilsack: Bringing CRP Ground Back into Production ‘Not Feasible’

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In letter to NGFA, Vilsack indicates less CRP re-enrollments in the latest general signup

 

                                                In Today’s Digital Newspaper

U.S. and Western leaders condemned Russia after Ukrainian forces, journalists, and human rights groups reported 

U.S. and Western leaders condemned Russia after Ukrainian forces, journalists, and human rights groups reported discovering gruesome scenes in the streets outside Kyiv as Russian forces retreated, including dead civilians shot at close range, some with their hands tied behind their backs. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CBS’ Face the Nation Russia’s actions amounted to “genocide.” And U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the images coming out of the region on Sunday “a punch to the gut.” European officials are discussing new and additional sanctions. U.S. officials talked about “secondary sanctions.”

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says bringing CRP ground back into production is not ‘feasible,’ and indicates less CRP re-enrollments in the latest general signup. He revealed the info in a letter to the National Grain & Feed Association. Details in Policy section.

The world is piling on debt as it battles inflation. Surging food and fuel prices are raising pressure on governments to pick up the tab for consumers, stretching precarious public finances and intensifying political instability in the shakiest economies. The handouts are boosting already high government debt just as borrowing costs are rising. Emerging economies must refinance debt totaling about $7 trillion this year, up from $5.5 trillion in 2021.

A rapidly escalating bird-flu outbreak in the U.S. is contributing to a surge in egg prices and threatens to raise prices on other poultry products in the coming months. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that USDA is mulling vaccination as a potential bird flu option. 

Senators are looking to reappropriate roughly $10 billion to pay for Covid-19 treatments and vaccines, saying they need to act quickly ahead of a possible resurgence.

Restaurant relief part of House aid package; ag sector aid? The House might vote this week on a small-business pandemic aid package that would provide $42 billion for additional restaurant relief and $13 billion for other “hard hit” industries. Ag industry stakeholders wonder if any relief is coming from surging fertilizer prices.

U.S. companies are relaxing many Covid-19-related requirements as office occupancy nears pandemic-era highs in many cities.

Shanghai began testing all 25 million residents for Covid-19 today, with the entire city now effectively under a lockdown that was meant to be in its final day.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban won a fifth term Sunday in an election that became a referendum on his promise to block support for Ukraine.

 

MARKET FOCUS

Equities today: Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings. Major indexes in Asia closed with gains. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.7%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up almost 0.3%. Markets in mainland China were closed for a holiday. Hong Kong stocks led gains in the region. Technology stocks were among the biggest advancers, boosted by hopes that a potential compromise by China over audit inspections could help avert the eventual delisting of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 5.4%, while the city’s main Hang Seng Index rose 2.1%. The Nikkei rose 70.49 points, 0.25%, at 27,736.47. European equities are mixed in early dealings. The Stoxx 600 up 0.3% and regional markets seeing losses of 0.7% to gains of 1%.

     U.S. equities Friday: The Dow rose 139.92 points, 0.4%, to 34,818.27, while the S&P 500 climbed 15.45 points, 0.3%, to 4,545.86 and the Nasdaq added 40.98 points, 0.3%, to 14,261.50.

     Stocks_040122_Week

Agriculture markets Friday:

  • Corn: Nearby May futures fell 13 3/4 cents to $7.35 and December futures rose 4 1/4 to $6.88. May corn dropped 19 cents for the week, while December corn firmed 19 cents.
  • Soy complex: May soybean futures closed the day down 35 1/2 cents at $15.82 3/4, hitting a five-week low, and for the week tumbled $1.27 1/2. May soybean meal futures hit a four-week low and closed down $17.50 at $450.00 and on the week lost $37.90. May soybean oil futures rebounded from a five-week low earlier to finish 126 points higher at 71.20 cents and for the week fell 355 points.
  • Wheat: May SRW wheat fell 21 1/2 cents to $9.84 1/2 today and plunged $1.17 3/4 for the week. May HRW wheat dropped 16 3/4 cents to $10.13, which was down 97 3/4 cents for the week. May HRS wheat declined 14 1/4 cents to $10.65 1/4 and was down 39 cents for the week.
  • Cotton: May cotton futures dropped 114 points to 134.55 cents to end the week. That marked a weekly loss of 135 points for the week.
  • Cattle: Nearby April live cattle slid 72.5 cents to $138.65 and most-active June fell 1.275 cents to $135.85. Those represent weekly losses of $1.825 and $1.525, respectively. May feeder futures sagged 42.5 cents to $166.125, marking a weekly decline of 87.5 cents.   
  • Hogs: June lean hog futures closed down 17 1/2 cents at $120.45 and near the session low. For the week, June hogs lost $5.40. April hogs closed down 45 cents at $101.30.

Ag markets today: Corn, soybean and wheat futures rebounded from last week’s losses in overnight. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 6 to 11 cents higher, soybeans were 7 to 11 cents higher, winter wheat futures were 10 to 15 cents higher and spring wheat was mostly 9 to 11 cents higher. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures were around 50 cents higher and the U.S. dollar index was more than 200 points higher this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

     April 4 Corn

     April 4 Soybeans

     April 4 Crude

     April 4 Bonds

     April 4 Gold

On tap today:

     • U.S. factory orders for February are expected to fall 0.6% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
     • Japan household spending for February is expected to increase 2.6% from one year earlier. (7:30 p.m. ET)
     • USDA Grain Export Inspections report, 11 a.m. ET.
     • USDA Crop Progress report, 4 p.m. ET.

IMF’s top economist says it is too early to discuss the risk of a recession in the U.S., where growth is likely to remain positive for the near future even as it slows down. Russia’s war in Ukraine has landed quite a “sizable shock” to the global economy that will challenge policymakers to tame inflation without hurting growth, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in his first interview since taking the job in January. Link for details.

     IMF Needed

The world is piling on debt as it battles inflation. Surging food and fuel prices are raising pressure on governments to pick up the tab for consumers, stretching precarious public finances and intensifying political instability in the shakiest economies. The handouts can help keep fuel and food price protests in check, but they are boosting already high government debt just as borrowing costs are rising. Emerging economies must refinance debt totaling about $7 trillion this year, up from $5.5 trillion in 2021.

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is firmer in action ahead of U.S. trading, with the euro slightly weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has firmed to trading around 2.39% with a mixed-to-weaker tone in global government bond yields. Gold and silver futures are rising ahead of U.S. economic data, with gold around $1,935 per troy ounce and silver around $24.90 per troy ounce.

     • U.S. dollar's dominance is facing headwinds, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs. Analysts at the bank warned that similar obstacles eroded the British pound's power in the early 1900s and could do the same to the U.S. dollar — with investors taking the possibility seriously. Goldman Sachs highlighted these vulnerabilities:

  1. The U.S. has a deteriorating net foreign asset position.
  2. Massive and rising foreign debts are weighing down the U.S.
  3. An increased use of other currencies in world trade would cause central banks to diversify away from the dollar.

     Sanctions by the U.S. and its allies that froze much of Russia's foreign-currency reserves have raised concerns that other countries could grow wary about relying heavily on the dollar.

     A top IMF official warned that the sanctions on Russia could end up chipping away at the dollar's status and noted that some nations are already renegotiating the currencies they use in international trade. "The dollar would remain the major global currency even in that landscape, but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible," Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director at the IMF, told the Financial Times last week.

     • Crude oil futures are posting advances in early activity ahead of U.S. trading, with U.S. crude around $100.45 per barrel and Brent around $105.45 per barrel.

     • Crude oil posted its biggest weekly loss in more than 10 years after the Biden administration ordered an unprecedented release of U.S. strategic reserves to tame surging prices at the pump. The White House on Thursday announced plans to release around 180M barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in what be the largest release from stockpile since it was created in 1975. The SPR decision would see 1 million barrels released daily over the course of six months, but analysts are still debating the benefits and whether it would put a dent in the inflationary forces seen in the current environment.

     • Average U.S. gas prices are $4.18 a gallon for regular unleaded, down 5 cents a gallon from last week’s average, but still 41 cents higher than March’s average of $3.77, according to GasBuddy.

     • U.S. diesel fuel prices increased last week by 5.1 cents to a national average of $5.185 per gallon. prices increased in all regions, with the most significant increase being seen in New England, where prices jumped 18.4 cents last week, followed by the Rocky Mountain region, which saw a 15.7-cent increase, according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration. According to ProMiles’ Fuel Surcharge Index, the most expensive diesel can be found in California at $6.212 per gallon, and the cheapest can be found in the Midwest region at $4.856 per gallon.

        Diesel prices

        While U.S. diesel prices are high, look at what they are in the eurozone:

        DP EZone

     • Wheat rallied as some European governments push for new financial measures against Russia. The European Commission today condemned the major exporter for atrocities by its military in several Ukrainian towns, saying that the bloc will “as a matter of urgency” work on additional sanctions against Moscow (see related item below). Chicago wheat futures rose 2%, returning above $10 a bushel and rebounding from an 11% loss last week, the biggest since 2011. “The hardening of the West’s attitude to Russia over the weekend might present new difficulties for Russian exports of anything, wheat included,” said Tobin Gorey, agricultural strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

     • Ag demand: Saudi Arabia booked 625,000 tons of wheat in a tender, roughly double the amount it sought. The grain is for September through November delivery, a sign some countries are already working at securing supply for late in the year. Iraq purchased 100,000 MT of wheat expected to be sourced from Germany. Jordan tendered to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

     • CFTC Commitments of Traders report (Source: Barron’s):

        CFTC_032922

     • NWS weather: Increasingly stormy conditions expected to impact the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains for the next couple of days as a deep low pressure system moves onshore... ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm threat expand across the Deep South for the next couple of days before moving up the East Coast Tuesday night/Wednesday morning... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk will persist over the northern High Plains.

        NWS 040422
        Wx 040422

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Grains firmer to open the week
     • Crop progress/condition reports start this afternoon
     • Kazakhstan may limit grain, flour exports
     • Focus should shift to beef movement
     • Hogs likely to face more pressure

 

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Summary: Reports of civilian massacres in Bucha led to swift international condemnation and claims of war crimes from world leaders, as well as pledges to escalate the West’s economic measures against Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, called Russia’s war a “genocide” on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday. Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, called the scenes from Bucha “a punch to the gut” on CNN, though he declined to call them war crimes. He said the U.S. will collect evidence in Ukraine and make a judgment. In an address early on Saturday morning Zelenskyy said that, although Russian forces in the north of the country were withdrawing at a “slow but noticeable” rate, the military situation in the east “remains extremely difficult.” Zelenskyy also condemned the Russian tactic of installing pro-Kremlin leaders in occupied Ukrainian cities. He warned the public that there would be consequences for collaborating with them. European officials have openly began calling for new sanctions to be imposed as soon as Wednesday. Both Germany and France’s foreign ministers have already vowed to push for strengthened sanctions, citing the atrocities in Bucha, according to the Financial Times. Some U.S. officials talked about “secondary sanctions” ahead.

     Haunting
     Satellite image: ©2022 Maxar Technologies

  • Ukraine’s top security official denied that Ukraine was responsible for an attack on a fuel depot in the Russian oblast of Belgorod, around 35km north of the countries’ shared border. Russia claimed that the attack, which took place on Friday, was carried out by Ukrainian helicopters. Instead, Oleksiy Danilov speculated that it could have been a Russian false-flag operation.
  • Lithuania is the first EU country to end imports of Russian gas, with the two other Baltic states also temporarily stopping its flow in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Lithuanian authorities said that from April 1 they would no longer import Russian gas but instead rely on liquefied natural gas from their terminal called Independence. “From now . . . on Lithuania won’t be consuming a cubic cm of toxic Russian gas. Lithuania is the first EU country to refuse Russian gas import,” Ingrida Simonyte, Lithuania’s prime minister, wrote on Twitter on Sunday. The country has turned to liquefied natural gas for its energy needs after emphasizing energy security and opening an LNG terminal in the port of Klaipeda in 2014. "If we can do it, the rest of Europe can do it too," added Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. The three Baltic states have been among the loudest voices urging the EU to end its members’ dependence on Russian oil and gas as countries pay Moscow for petroleum even after its invasion of Ukraine.
  • Immediate European steps may include a ban on Russian ships from EU ports and putting more pressure on oligarchs. But a big potential move would be a ban on Russian oil and gas. Momentum is building in Germany for such a step (the country already announced it would be "virtually independent" by the end of 2022), while Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio revealed there could soon be "debate on the issue of imports of hydrocarbons from Russia." Last month, the U.S. pledged to boost LNG supplies to Europe after announcing its own ban on Russian oil, gas and coal imports.
  • Senior Biden officials have previously discussed potentially devastating “secondary sanctions” that would target countries that continue to trade with Russia.
  • In a pre-recorded video shown at the Grammy Awards last night, Zelenskyy urged Americans from a bunker in Kyiv to "support us in any way you can. Any — but not silence… The war. What is more opposite to music? The silence of ruined cities and killed people. Our children draw swooping rockets, not shooting stars," he told the celebrities at the awards night in Las Vegas. "Our musicians wear body armor instead of tuxedos. They sing to the wounded, in hospitals. Even to those who can't hear them. But the music will break through anyway. We defend our freedom. To live, to love. To sound."

— Market impacts:

  • Blinken: Ruble’s recovery is ‘not sustainable,’ sees decline. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the ruble’s rebound is fueled by “a lot of manipulation” by Russian authorities and won’t be sustainable. “People are being prevented from unloading rubles,” Blinken said on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday. “That’s artificially propping up the value. That’s not sustainable. So, I think you’re going to see that change.” Russia’s central bank has imposed severe capital controls to help counter financial sanctions by the U.S. and its allies and the impact of an exodus of western companies after President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. That’s helped prop up the currency, which closed at 85.42 rubles per dollar on Friday, almost matching the exchange rate on Feb. 24 when Russia began the war. Export controls imposed to deny Russia access to technology will have an increasing impact, Blinken said. “Having said that, we’re working every single day with partners and allies around the world to make sure that we’re tightening the sanctions, closing any loopholes, adding new ones,” he said. Russia’s economy, however, is on track to see $321 billion in energy exports this year, Bloomberg reported Friday, if oil and gas continues to flow.
     
  • Russia is on pace to rake in $321 billion from energy exports this year. Despite its war with Ukraine, Russia continues to sell oil and gas to its trade partners. If it keeps up the current pace, this would mark an increase of more than one-third from 2021.
  • Russian military forces repeatedly attacked grain storage facilities in Ukraine late last week, leading to added concerns about global food supply shortages and price increases. Additionally, Russia also bombed at least three ships carrying cargo from the Black Sea to the rest of the world. Russia currently occupies areas that constitute 20% of Ukraine’s farmland. Meanwhile, reports note that Russian troops seized tractors and combines from John Deere dealerships in the Ukraine upon occupation.
  • Ukraine sees 2022 spring sowing area down 21% Y/y. Projected areas under Ukraine’s spring crops will probably total 13.4 million hectares this year, about 21% less than in 2021, Agriculture Ministry said on its website. Planting has begun in 21 regions out of 24, not counting annexed Crimea; that’s more than this time last year due to favorable weather Total area sown so far includes:
    • 81,000 ha of spring wheat
    • 327,300 ha of spring barley
    • 33,700 ha of sunflower
    • 10,400 ha of soybean

 

POLICY UPDATE

—  USDA’s Vilsack says bringing CRP ground back into production ‘not feasible’ and indicates less CRP re-enrollments in latest general signup. The calls for USDA to allow ground in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to be brought back into production does not appear to be one USDA will be heeding. In a letter (link) to the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) and obtained by Politico, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said bringing CRP acres back into production is “not feasible” in part as land in the program is not highly productive. The 202 Natural Resources Inventory by USDA showed only 1.3% of prime farmland is in CRP and “more than 75% of acres” are less productive non-prime farmland. Drought in several parts of the US is another factor against tapping CRP acres cited by Vilsack along with facts that we have signaled — acres coming out of CRP have significant “slippage,” which Vilsack said means “one acre coming out of CRP does not transfer into an acre of crop production, but closer to half that.”

     USDA’s own guidance is that it takes two years of above-normal inputs being applied to CRP ground to return it to production. Those with land in CRP with contracts expiring in the fall have typically sought to re-enroll a high percentage of those acres back into the program, typically more than 50% to 60%. USDA concluded a general CRP signup March 11, and Vilsack indicated that the trend of re-enrolling acres may not be as strong this time relative to the 4 million acres under contracts that mature September 30. While cautioning USDA is still sorting through the CRP offers, Vilsack said, “our data reflect the reality that, with higher commodity prices, producers are not re-enrolling all of these acres in CRP. Instead, high prices for this year’s crops will motivate producers to plant more acres of wheat, soybeans, and corn, with the main limiting factors being weather and soil moisture conditions.” That shows that producers are willing to bring acres out of CRP when contracts mature during a time of higher commodity prices even with higher costs involved to return such lands to productivity.

— Lawmakers consider $10 billion Covid-19 funding as cases rebound. U.S. lawmakers are trying to close a deal this week to devote $10 billion of federal funding to the Biden administration’s efforts to fight Covid-19, including stockpiling treatments and vaccines, as public-health officials warn of a possible reemergence of the latest strain of coronavirus. The amount is less than half the $22.5 billion Biden initially requested. The White House has said it is running out of funds for Covid-19 preparedness, forced to begin the wind-down of a program that reimbursed healthcare providers to care for uninsured Covid-19 patients.

     Restaurant relief part of aid package; ag sector aid? The House might vote this week on a small-business pandemic aid package that would provide $42 billion for additional restaurant relief and $13 billion for other “hard hit” industries. The Rules Committee is scheduled to meet on the revised bill Tuesday afternoon, which indicates floor action soon thereafter. Ag industry stakeholders wonder if any relief is coming from surging fertilizer prices.

 

PERSONNEL

— White House announced new nominations, including Robert Godec as ambassador to Thailand and Vinay Singh as CFO at HUD.

 

CHINA UPDATE

— Wang Lutong, a senior Chinese diplomat, argued on Saturday that China was not deliberately working around sanctions placed on Russia by the West. He also claimed that China was helping the world economy by continuing to trade with Russia. On Friday Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, warned Chinese officials of the “major reputational damage” they would suffer if China abetted the Russian war effort.

— China starts Covid-19 mass testing for 25 million Shanghai residents. In a world first, military transport planes have been drafted to Shanghai, as its 25 million residents undergo a three-day mass testing from Sunday, aimed at cutting Covid-19 transmission chains in China’s most developed metropolis, according to the South China Morning Post. The rapid testing exercise was carried out as Shanghai announced a record 9,000 new cases, amid a citywide lockdown. Total infections since March 1, when the outbreak began, have now topped 61,000 – most of them asymptomatic, making detection difficult. All of the city’s residents are required to take part in Monday’s nucleic acid testing, with positive results leading to hospitalization or quarantine within 36 hours of the start of the exercise, which began in the early morning. On Sunday, all citizens were required to conduct a rapid antigen test on themselves at home.

— Hong Kong’s top official Carrie Lam said she won’t seek a second term in office, as she nears the end of a five-year stint as the city’s chief executive.

 

TRADE POLICY

— First potato shipments destined for the U.S. are expected to leave Prince Edward Island (PEI) early this week following the lifting of a crippling four-month ban. USDA issued its final order on Friday, which cleared the way for imports of table-stock potatoes from PEI to resume. Canada stopped sending potatoes to the U.S. in November after potato wart fungus was detected in several fields on the Island last fall. Potato wart is an otherwise harmless disease that disfigures potatoes and reduces crop yields.

     However, seed potatoes, which account for about 10% of the Island’s annual output, are still banned from the U.S. until the outcome of a more thorough review by U.S. authorities. A Canadian ban, meanwhile, also applies to seed potato shipments to other provinces. Federal Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau has said that seed potato shipments are unlikely to resume until 2023.

 

LIVESTOCK, FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY

— Iowa announces four more commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI. The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS) has confirmed four new cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry operations. The agency reported confirmed cases in commercial layer chickens in Osceola County, commercial turkeys in Cherokee County, commercial turkeys in Sac County and commercial breeding chickens in Humboldt County. There were no figures provided on the number of birds impacted, but industry contacts signal the Osceola County, Iowa, case involved more than 5 million birds. Meanwhile, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed HPAI in a commercial pheasant flock in Erath County, Texas.

     Upshot: More than 11 million egg-laying chickens, roughly 3% of the total U.S. flock, have died or been destroyed because of the disease, along with more than two million commercially raised turkeys. Shell egg prices have climbed to $2.88 a dozen, up about 52% since Feb. 8, when the USDA confirmed the first case in a U.S. commercial turkey flock in Indiana. It is their highest point since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, according to market research firm Urner Barry. analysts said retailers are buying up eggs in anticipation that supplies could tighten in the coming weeks. USDA compensates farm owners for fair market value of any animals euthanized and other costs associated with controlling the virus.

     Egg prices

— Reuters: USDA mulling vaccination as a potential bird flu option. USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) is looking into the potential for developing a vaccine for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that could be distinguished from the wild type of the virus that is found in poultry, USDA Chief Veterinary Officer Rosemary Sifford told Reuters in an interview. That could address a key concern in the poultry industry that importing countries could ban imports of U.S. poultry as they cannot currently distinguish between vaccinated and infected birds. "We feel strongly that if we could develop a vaccine like that, that would have less of a trade impact," Sifford said.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Summary: Global cases of Covid-19 are at 491,494,197 with 6.153,286 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 80,155,397 with 982,565 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 562,085,242 doses administered, 217,834,304 have been fully vaccinated, or 66.36% of the U.S. population.

— U.S. companies are relaxing many of the vaccine and other Covid-related requirements that had become a staple of corporate life in the pandemic. As office occupancy nears pandemic-era highs in many U.S. cities, several employers have communicated new, looser safety protocols to workers. The new protocols in many cases follow updated guidance from health authorities, who have moved away from blanket preventive measures in favor of a more targeted approach.

     Covid 040422

 

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) announced Friday that she will run for the state’s lone U.S. House seat, joining a crowded field of nearly 40 candidates to fill the House seat left vacant by Rep. Don Young. The announcement came about 45 minutes before the filing deadline. The Washington Post reports former president Donald Trump on Sunday “endorsed Sarah Palin for Alaska’s lone congressional seat, throwing his weight behind the ex-governor who embraced Trump before he came to dominate the GOP.”

— Poll: Democratic voter interest decreasing, Republican interest increasing. Axios reports (link) Republican voters “are signaling how they’re thinking about the 2022 midterms, with a recent Pew Research survey showing they’re much more motivated this cycle by which party controls Congress after November.” Axios says it is a “significant shift from the 2018 elections, when there was only a narrow gap between the two parties on the same question.” Voters “saying which party controls Congress ‘really matters’ to them is similar this cycle (63%) to the last midterm cycle (65%).” But “of that group, 70% of Republicans agree party control on the Hill is an important factor to them, compared to just 60% of Democrats. ... That’s down from 67% of Democratic voters who said the same in 2018.”

— Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, clinching a fourth consecutive term in power. Orban's Fidesz party had a commanding lead with 71% of the votes counted, Hungary's national elections board said on Sunday evening. The election campaign was dominated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which put Orban's lengthy association with Russian President Vladimir Putin under scrutiny. In his victory speech, Orban called Ukrainian President Zelenskyy an "opponent" that he had to overcome during the campaign.

— White House: Biden to stay out of Jan. 6 prosecution decisions; no involvement in Hunter Biden probe, chief of staff says. White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain said Attorney General Merrick Garland, not President Joe Biden, will make decisions on prosecutions in the January 6, 2021, riot and in other cases. Klain was responding to a New York Times report this weekend that Biden told his inner circle last year that former President Donald Trump should be prosecuted. The NYT cited people familiar with the comments. Klain said on ABC’s This Week he has never heard Biden “advocate the prosecution of any person.” Only Richard Nixon and Trump believed those decisions should be made in the Oval Office, he said. “The president has confidence in the attorney general to make those decisions,” Klain said on the Sunday show. Klain also said no one at the White House nor the president have had contact with the Department of Justice on Hunter Biden, who has faced scrutiny for his overseas business dealings. “Of course, the president is confident that his son didn’t break the law,” Klain said, but that’s “something no one at the White House has any involvement in.” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), speaking on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, alleged that intelligence agencies and the media covered up the story of Hunter Biden’s business ties in countries such as China and Ukraine. “This is the most corruption I’ve seen in the United States government,” Johnson said. “This is corruption at the highest level.” Johnson and fellow Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) released a report on Hunter Biden in September 2020 shortly before the election. While Republicans said the report raised concerns including conflicts of interest, the findings didn’t disclose any impact on policy or prove wrongdoing.

 

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

Iran: Agreement to revive nuclear deal with U.S. is close. Iran said it is close to reaching an agreement with the U.S. over restoring the 2015 nuclear accord after sending its latest proposals to Washington for resolving an impasse over terrorism sanctions.


 

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