USDA projects bigger corn harvest, lower soybean and cotton yields (Morning Ag Clips): USDA’s latest Crop Production report shows mixed results for major crops compared to 2024. Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, a 13% increase from last year, supported by a 9% rise in planted acres and record-high yields in several states despite a slight dip from last month’s forecast. Soybean output is projected at 4.30 billion bushels, down 2% from 2024, with planted acres 7% lower than last year but yields expected to hit record highs in multiple states. Cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million bales, an 8% decline from 2024, with planted area down 17% and yields slightly lower than both last month and last year.
These estimates are based on updated acreage data from the Farm Service Agency and surveys of more than 7,600 producers nationwide.
North Dakota growers warn of crisis as China stops buying U.S. soybeans (The New York Times): North Dakota soybean farmers are facing major financial strain as China halts U.S. soybean purchases in response to Trump administration tariffs. For the Gackle family, whose 2,300-acre farm has relied on China as its top customer, the loss could reach $400,000 in 2025, with unsold beans piling up in storage.
Before the tariffs, more than 70% of North Dakota’s soybeans were exported to China. Without renewed trade, many growers fear steep losses could trigger farm bankruptcies and foreclosures, drawing comparisons to the 1980s farm crisis. Farmers cite mounting stress from low prices, high input costs, and high interest rates.
Trade talks in Spain this week will be closely watched, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent leading U.S. negotiations. While Bessent himself owns millions of dollars’ worth of North Dakota farmland, his wealth shields him from the risks now threatening family farms.
Experts caution that China has not completely ruled out buying American soybeans. Officials have recently visited Washington and North Dakota, and some analysts note China values access to U.S. supplies as a hedge against disruptions in Brazil. Still, China is unlikely to surrender its leverage, leaving American farmers caught in a period of extraordinary uncertainty.