Policy Updates: USDA lowers farm income forecast

Yesterday, the USDA released a report lowering its 2025 farm income outlook, citing weaker crop revenues that outweigh gains for cattle producers.

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Pro Farmer Policy News Markets Update
(Lindsey Pound)
  • USDA lowers farm income forecast (Agri-Pulse): The USDA has lowered its 2025 farm income outlook, citing weaker crop revenues that outweigh gains for cattle producers. Net cash farm income — a measure of farm cash flow — is now projected at $180.7 billion, down from the February forecast of $193.7 billion, though still 25% higher than last year when adjusted for inflation. Net farm income, a broader gauge of profitability, is forecast at $179.8 billion, nearly matching February’s projection and running 37% above 2024 levels.

    Despite the downgrade, both measures remain above their 20-year averages, largely due to a sharp rise in government support. Direct government payments are expected to total $40.5 billion in 2025 — the highest since 2020 and more than triple last year’s level — after Congress approved major aid for row-crop producers in December. Lawmakers are also weighing additional emergency relief to offset trade disruptions tied to former President Trump’s trade policies.

  • USDA announces forest health resilience projects to improve timber production (USDA Press Release): The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is investing more than $8 million for five new projects to reduce wildfire risk, protect water quality, and improve forest health across the nation.

    The Joint Chiefs’ Landscape Restoration Partnership Program is a collaborative effort between USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and Forest Service to work across public-private boundaries and at a landscape scale. The $8 million investment in new projects is in addition to $32 million for 24 existing three-year-long Joint Chiefs’ projects.

    The five new projects are:

    • Alabama – National Forest in Alabama “Alabama Chattahoochee Fall Line Restoring Longleaf”
    • Colorado and Wyoming – Medicine Bow-Routt National Forest “Headwaters of the Colorado”
    • Montana – Lolo National Forest “Blackfoot River Valley Landscape Mosaic”
    • North Carolina – National Forests in North Carolina “Uwharries to Sandhills, Phase 2”
    • Oregon – Mt. Hood National Forest “Hood River Wildfire and Watershed Resilience”