Policy Updates: China’s U.S. soy bean buying stalls after trade truce

Just two weeks after the announced trade truce between China and the United States, Chinese purchases of American soybeans have unexpectedly stagnated, and traders now say they see no new orders coming in.

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Pro Farmer Policy News Markets Update
(Lindsey Pound)
  • China’s U.S. soybean buying stalls after trade truce (Bloomberg): In the wake of the recently announced trade truce between China and the United States, Chinese purchases of American soybeans have unexpectedly stagnated. While earlier shipments suggested a rebound, traders now say they see no new orders coming in — a hiatus that casts doubt on the deal’s agricultural commitments. According to market observers, the pause is raising questions about whether China will follow through on the previously cited purchase targets.

    The slowdown reflects deeper structural issues: China already carries a large soybean surplus, crush-margins for processors remain negative, and imports from Brazil remain more cost-competitive. Those factors are limiting the appetite for more U.S. cargoes even though tariffs were eased under the truce. In effect, the ag-market segment of the truce is encountering supply-side and financial headwinds that reduce the likelihood of a rapid rebound in U.S. exports.

  • Stopgap spending bill extends Farm Bill; signals shift toward piecemeal agriculture policy (ProFarmer): The Senate has passed a continuing resolution that not only funds the federal government through January 30, 2026, but also includes a one-year extension of key programs from the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (2018 Farm Bill). The extension safeguards core farm safety-net programs, crop insurance, and export promotion mechanisms from reverting to outdated “permanent law” statutes, while also ensuring that federal agricultural inspection services under the U.S. Grain Standards Act continue uninterrupted.

    However, this stopgap measure also raises a bigger question for agricultural policy: are the days of passing a comprehensive five-year Farm Bill ending? Many economists surveyed believe so — nearly 40 % indicated a “piecemeal” approach may become the new normal. While farmers and farm-groups welcomed the extension as a relief from uncertainty, critics warn that tying conservation-program payment-limit eliminations and other provisions into short-term extensions may create instability and favor large operations over small and medium farms.