Don’t Count Pelosi Out Yet… But Details of Hoped-for Framework are Key

PCE index is highest rate of inflation since 1991 | Why China goofed re: Phase 1 accord

In Today’s Digital Newspaper

Market Focus:
• PCE price index rose 0.4% in August, putting it up 4.3% on an annualized basis
• PCE index is highest rate of inflation since 1991
• Euro zone inflation hits highest level in 13 years as energy prices soar
• How U.S. social safety net compares with other countries
• Relative to other industrialized economies, U.S. outlier on metrics of gov’t support
• Extended gate operation at the Port of Long Beach is lacking interest 
• Transportation nuggets
• Some stabilization for corn and soybeans overnight
• Welcome moisture for HRW wheat areas
• Soybean crush expected to hit four-year low for the month of August
• Corn use for ethanol expected slide from July to August
• Russian wheat tariff will hit a new high next week
• Ukraine’s grain exports running well ahead of year-ago
• India imported a record amount of vegoils in September
• Beef prices still sliding
• Hogs headed for a test of the summer highs

Policy Focus:
• Biden signs bill to avert partial gov’t shutdown
• BIF vote delayed as Democratic factions dig in over details of safety net bill
• What’s in the delayed BIF measure
• Debt ceiling update
• Why Dems avoid debt limit extension language via reconciliation 

Biden Administration Personnel:
• Senate today resumes consideration of administrator of USAID
• Senate clears CFPB, BLM heads
• Organic adviser at USDA 

China Update:
• USTR Tai poised to flesh out Biden administration trade policy with China
• More on U.S./China trade policy via Tai interview with Politico
• How China goofed up relative to Phase 1 accord with U.S. Reason: Energy
• U.S. dominating China’s grain-fed beef market 

Energy & Climate Change:
• Interior to hold oil and gas lease sale

Livestock, Food & Beverage Industry Update:
• USDA finally sends plan for supplemental DMC payments, other farm programs to OMB
• USDA: Vaccine shown to prevent and protect swine from current Asian ASF strain
• Cheesemakers across Cyprus are happy

Coronavirus Update:
• Delta variant’s deadly two-month U.S. surge leveling off
• Rural Americans dying of Covid at more than twice rate of urbanites
• Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh tests positive for Covid-19
• Asia surpasses U.S. in vaccinations
• Australia to open up from November
• Merck: Experimental pill cuts worst effects of Covid-19

Politics & Elections:
• Roanoke poll: McAuliffe up 7 Over Youngkin in new poll
• Nicolas Sarkozy convicted of illegal campaign financing 

Congress:
• Will Pelosi send House members home for two weeks, or keep them in DC?

Other Items of Note:
• Surprise? U.S. mail delivery will cost more for even less
• Up to 80,000 employment-based green cards set to expire today
• Cotton AWP highest in nearly a decade
• Turkish man declared missing found after he accidentally volunteered for his own search

MARKET FOCUS

Equities today: Global stock markets were lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings. Asian equities were mostly lower with some markets closed for a holiday. Japan’s Nikkei fell 681.59 points, 2.31%, at 28,771.07. Markets in Hong Kong and Mainland China were closed for a holiday. European equities are lower in early trade action after big losses in U.S. trading Thursday. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% with regional markets seeing losses of 0.1% to 0.8%.

     U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow fell 546.80 points, 1.59%, at 33,843.92. The Nasdaq declined 63.86 points, 0.44%, at 14,448.58. The S&P 500 was down 51.92 points, 1.19%, at 4,307.54.

     For September, the Dow slid 4.3%, while the Nasdaq fell 5.3%. The S&P 500 tumbled 4.8% in September, its largest monthly decline since March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic spurred a selloff. Despite the slump, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a 0.2% gain for the quarter to notch its sixth consecutive quarter of gains. The Nasdaq and Dow, meanwhile, ended the period lower, marking their first quarterly losses since the first three months of 2020.

On tap today (see detailed list of events and reports below):

     •  U.S. personal income for August is expected to increase 0.2% from the prior month, and consumer spending is forecast to rise 0.7% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET) Update: Inflation remains high even as consumer spending increased. Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in August, putting it up 4.3% on an annualized basis which marks the highest rate of inflation since 1991. Minus energy and food, prices rose 0.3% during August, slightly ahead of expectations, while the annual rate maintained at 3.6%, also a 30-year high. But consumer spending rose 0.8% for the month, above expectations and after the July rate was revised down to a decline of 0.1% after initially having been reported as an increase of 0.3%. Fed officials have indicated the rate of inflation is still likely to be temporarily above their 2% target, but officials have acknowledged this week the rise in prices could last into 2022 as supply chain constraints remain a key factor that has increased prices across the U.S. economy.
     • U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy for August is expected to rise 0.2% from one month earlier and 3.5% from one year earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)
     • IHS Markit's U.S. manufacturing index for September is expected to hold at 60.5, unchanged from a preliminary reading. (9:45 a.m. ET)
     • Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index is expected to tick down to 59.5 in September from 59.9 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
     • U.S. construction spending for August is expected to rise 0.3% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
     • University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September is expected to hold at 71, unchanged from a preliminary reading. (10 a.m. ET)
     • Federal Reserve: Philadelphia's Patrick Harker speaks to the New Castle County Chamber of Commerce at 11 a.m. ET, and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester speaks to a Shadow Open Market Committee forum at 1 p.m. ET.
     • Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
     • CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.

Euro zone inflation hits highest level in 13 years as energy prices soar. Headline inflation came in at 3.4% last month, according to preliminary data from Europe’s statistics office Eurostat. This was the highest level since September 2008 when inflation stood at 3.6%. It comes after German consumer prices rose by 4.1% in September — the highest level in almost 30 years. The rise has been driven higher by surging energy prices.

How U.S. social safety net compares with other countries. The $3.5 trillion fiscal package Democrats initially hoped to pass would have been an ambitious expansion of the social safety net, offering regular child allowances, paid sick and parental leave, universal preschool and free college. What would most Americans pay for all these new benefits? Nothing. Led by President Biden, Democrats seek to emulate the comprehensive welfare states common in Western Europe, without the high taxes Europeans routinely pay, the Wall Street Journal reports (link).

Relative to other industrialized economies, U.S. is an outlier on many metrics of gov’t support. It spends barely 1% of gross domestic product on direct benefits to families with children, third lowest in the 38-member Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The U.S. is also the only country in the OECD whose national government doesn’t offer paid maternity leave.

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is weaker ahead of U.S. economic updates, with the euro and British pound both higher versus the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was little changed ahead of inflation data, trading just under 1.50%. Gold and silver futures are mixed ahead of U.S. economic data, with gold lower and trading around $1,753 per troy ounce and silver slightly higher around $22.30 per troy ounce.

     • Crude prices are under pressure ahead of U.S. trading, with U.S. crude around $74.40 per barrel and Brent crude around $77.80 per barrel. Futures were lower in Asian action, with U.S. crude down 23 cents at $74.80 per barrel and Brent crude was down 29 cents at $78.02 per barrel.

     • Extended gate operation at the Port of Long Beach is lacking interest. A pilot program offering 24-hour container operations at the Southern California port hasn’t attracted any truckers more than two weeks since it began, the WSJ reports (link). The program is an attempt to cut into the congestion that has jammed the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, but the WSJ writes that it so far is demonstrating the challenges of clearing the backlogs created by a flood of imports. Total Terminals International, which is operating the extended gates, says it is looking to make adjustments to attract truckers. The program underscores the difficulties in aligning operations from the docks to truck drayage companies to warehouses. Terminal operators say many slots for container pickups are going unused at all times of the day, even as container ships continue to line up offshore.

     • Transportation nuggets:
        — Home Depot will offer its flatbed capacity to other shippers under an agreement with Loadsmart. (Journal of Commerce)
        — China’s government is encouraging exporters to sign long-term shipping contracts as a hedge against skyrocketing container freight rates. (The Loadstar)
        — The Port of Jacksonville, Fla., will spend $48 million to expand container handling capacity. (Port Technology)

     • NWS weather: There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains through Saturday morning... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Northern High Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, including the Great Lakes.

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Some stabilization for corn and soybeans overnight
     • Welcome moisture for HRW wheat areas
     • Soybean crush expected to hit four-year low for the month of August
     • Corn use for ethanol expected slide from July to August
     • Russian wheat tariff will hit a new high next week
     • Ukraine’s grain exports running well ahead of year-ago
     • India imported a record amount of vegoils in September
     • Beef prices still sliding
     • Hogs headed for a test of the summer highs

POLICY FOCUS

— Biden signs bill to avert partial gov’t shutdown. President Biden on Thursday signed a stopgap bill that will keep the government funded through Dec. 3, at which point Congress will need to issue another CR to fund the remainder of the fiscal year. The House and Senate each passed the continuing resolution earlier Thursday.

     The bill includes $28.6 billion in additional disaster relief ($10 billion for ag disasters in 2020 and 2021) and $6.3 billion for Afghan refugee resettlement, as requested by the White House. Agricultural assistance would include wine grapes tainted by smoke from wildfires along with losses caused by drought, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat and extreme cold, winter storms including the polar vortex, and damaging precipitation. The bill directs $750 million to livestock producers for losses this year from drought or wildfires.  (Note: Farmers always want to know when they will get the ag disaster aid. Sources inform it will take a while to get the regulations out. It could be early next year before actual payments are made, but we will focus on this in the coming days.)

     The bill also extended the life of a livestock price-reporting bill until Dec. 3.

     Senate vote: The CR cleared the Senate by a 65-35 vote. 35 Republicans voted against funding the government.

     Senate GOP ayes: Sens. Roy Blunt (Mo.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), Bill Cassidy (La.), Susan Collins (Maine), John Cornyn (Texas), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), John Kennedy (La.), Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitt Romney (Utah), Mike Rounds (S.D.), Richard Shelby (Ala.), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Todd Young (Ind.).

     House vote: The CR cleared the House by a vote of 254-175.

     34 GOP House ayes: Reps. Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio), Tony Gonzales (Texas), Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.), Peter Meijer (Mich.), Mark Amodei (Nev.), Tom Cole (Okla.), María Elvira Salazar (Fla.), Fred Upton (Mich.), Mike Simpson (Idaho), Clay Higgins (La.), Tom Reed (N.Y.), Don Young (Alaska), Garret Graves (La.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Young Kim (Calif.), Hal Rogers (Ky.), Chris Smith (N.J.), Dan Newhouse (Wash.), Glenn Thompson (Pa.), Mario Diaz Balart (Fla.), Rodney Davis (Ill.), Jaime Herrera Beutler (Wash.), John Katko (N.Y.), Julia Letlow (La.), Patrick McHenry (N.C.), Blake Moore (Utah), Doug LaMalfa (Calif.), Jay Obernolte (Calif.), Cathy McMorris Rogers (Wash.), David Valadao (Calif.), Michael Turner (Ohio), Carlos Gimenez (Fla.) and Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.).

— BIF vote delayed as Democratic factions dig in over the details of a safety net bill. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) canceled a vote late Thursday on President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure (BIF) bill amid deep Democratic infighting — liberal Democrats had threatened to block it without substantial progress toward passing a $3.5 trillion social policy and climate bill — dubbed the Build Back Better (BBB) measure. Democrats plan to continue their work today. The speaker had waged an effort to curry votes on the approximately $1-trillion infrastructure plan and to reach a framework agreement on the size and scope of the social and climate change bill.

     White House officials to Capitol Hill. White House domestic policy advisor Susan Rice, national economic advisor Brian Deese and Shuwanza Goff, a key member of the legislative affairs team, came to Capitol Hill to help seek an agreement between Democratic leaders and two centrist Democratic holdouts in the Senate. But those efforts ended just before 11 p.m. ET.

     Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said publicly for the first time that he would support a safety net package costing $1.5 trillion — less than half as much as other Democrats had agreed to. Manchin signed an agreement, dated July 28, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), stating he would support spending $1.5 trillion at most on a safety net bill. There is still unknowns about what centrist Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.) will accept.

     Now what? Democrats might scale back their social safety net and climate change bill. They could cut whole programs or give each of them a substantial haircut by reducing the number of years they would be in effect or by means testing them based on income. An ambitious plan to require pharmaceutical companies to negotiate drug prices in Medicare — a longtime Democratic campaign promise that would unleash hundreds of billions of dollars in savings to go to other health programs — will likely be cut or scaled back, according to several Democrats.

     Bottom line: Pelosi is big on frameworks, so observers should be looking for that — and a needed endorsement of any framework by President Biden. If you hear Biden is making an appearance on Capitol Hill, up the odds an actual deal could be forthcoming. There would also have to be a public endorsement by Sens. Manchin and Sinema. Pelosi spent Thursday working with White House aides to sketch out a BBB framework that would appeal to the two moderate senators while freeing House progressives to vote for the BIF. Upon leaving the Capitol just after midnight, the speaker declared “there will be a vote today.” — she said the same thing on Thursday. Reports note that Pelosi’s BBB offer to moderate Sens. Manchin and Sinema included a top line of $2.1 trillion broken into three buckets: (1) family issues (e.g. child care and paid leave), (2) health care (locking in subsidies for ObamaCare) and (3) climate change. But a framework might not be enough. Progressives want the Senate to vote on reconciliation before the House votes on infrastructure.

— What’s in the delayed BIF measure:

• In August, a bipartisan group of 69 senators — all 50 Democrats and 19 Republicans — passed a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure package, which includes about $550 billion above projected federal spending on roads, bridges, expanded broadband access and more.
• $110 billion in funding for roads, bridges and major projects, as well as $39 billion to modernize and make public transit more accessible to the disabled and elderly.
• $66 billion investment in rail maintenance, modernization and expansion, most of which will go to Amtrak.
• $11 billion in funding for highway and pedestrian safety programs.
• $7.5 billion will go to implementing a network of electric vehicle chargers.
• $7.5 billion will be used for zero-emission or low-emission buses and ferries.
• Ports and airports will be boosted with $42 billion in new spending.
• $50 billion to bolster the country’s infrastructure generally against climate change and cyberattacks.
• $55 billion will go toward clean drinking water.
• $65 billion will go toward nroadband infrastructure and development.
• $21 billion in removing pollution from soil and groundwater, job creation in energy communities and a focus on economic and environmental justice.
• $73 billion to update and expand the power grid.

— Debt ceiling update: On Thursday night, the Senate took its first procedural step to raise the debt limit, setting up another partisan clash. Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, told Congress earlier this week that the deadline was Oct. 18 and inaction would risk a first-ever default on the federal debt. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he will seek a vote “as early as next week” on House-passed legislation suspending the legal ceiling. But Republicans in the past have blocked similar requests not linked with a reconciliation vote.

     Yellen said lawmakers should abolish the legal limit on how much Treasury can borrow to meet the federal government’s payment obligations, pushing lawmakers to eliminate the potential threat of a U.S. default. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen said the current debt ceiling law can prove “very destructive” by creating a legal debt limit that has to be raised separate from what Congress has already ordered the federal government to spend.” Yellen, asked by a member of the House Financial Services Committee if the damage done by failure to meet the federal government’s debt obligations would be ‘irreparable,’” replied, “Yes.”

     Why do Democrats insist on suspending the debt and why not link it to reconciliation? Sources say that although it has not been tested, it appears that if the debt limit language is included in reconciliation, a specific dollar figure must be included. Link to a CRS document on the topic. If so, sources signal the Congressional Budget Office puts the likely debt limit figure at $35 trillion. Democrats do not want a specific debt limit figure, knowing they will be the only votes for the matter via reconciliation.

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION PERSONNEL

— Senate today resumes consideration of the nomination of Paloma Adams-Allen to be deputy administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development.

— Senate clears CFPB, BLM heads. The Senate Thursday voted to approve Rohit Chopra to be head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), approving the nomination on a 50-48 vote. Chopra was at CFPB when the agency was initially formed and served in various roles from 2010 to 2015. It also marks an end to his being a member of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The Senate also approved the nomination of Tracy Stone-Manning to lead the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), a role that was never permanently filled during the Trump administration. The chamber approved her nomination 50-45. She had previously served on the staff of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and former Montana Governor Steve Bullock.

— Organic adviser at USDA. Marni Karlin, chief lawyer at the Organic Trade Association, was appointed USDA senior adviser for organic and emerging markets, and Linda Delgado, returning to a post she held during the Clinton era, was named senior adviser to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack.

CHINA UPDATE

— USTR Tai poised to flesh out Biden administration trade policy with China. U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai Oct. 4 is to appear at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and deliver remarks on the Biden administration’s trade agenda with China. According to CSIS, Tai will “deliver a speech outlining the Biden/Harris Administration’s approach to the bilateral trade relationship with China.”

     She will also participate in a conversation with Bill Reinsch, Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business at CSIS and will answer questions from the audience.

     In a Twitter post, USTR spokesman Adam Hodge said Tai will “lay out initial steps of the Biden administration’s approach to realign the bilateral trade relationship with China,” a post that Tai has retweeted. This suggests the review of U.S./China trade policy launched at the start of her tenure at USTR has reached a point where Tai is willing to comment on it publicly, though it is not clear how revealing the comments will be given the USTR tweet that it will lay out the “initial stages” relative to the U.S./China trade relationship.

— More on U.S./China trade policy. In an interview with Politico this week in Pennsylvania, Tai said the Biden administration wants to “build” on the existing tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and confront China for failing to live up to terms of the Phase 1 agreement between the two countries. “I think it’s going to be important to review China's performance with China, and that's going to be the critical first step in my mind,” Tai said relative to the Phase 1 deal.

     Tai also revealed that the review of the U.S. trade policy with China is still ongoing but would be completed “very soon.”

     Tai would not comment on whether there were plans being made for a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. However, she stated, “I think that that is an important part of what needs to happen.”

     As for the tariffs, Tai told Politico that they got “a lot of people’s attention,” and that they are a “tool for creating the kind of effective policies, and [are] something for us to us to build on and to use in terms of defending to the hilt the interests of the American economy, the American worker and American businesses and our farmers, too.”

     Comments: Given Tai’s comments, it would appear this appearance at CSIS will not provide the hoped-for clarity on the U.S./China trade policy that has been awaited, particularly given Tai’s admission the review of U.S./China trade policy is not yet completed, and it is not clear what kind of timeline “very soon” would imply. It would also appear that Section 301 tariffs deployed by the Trump administration are not something Tai and the Biden administration are removing from the U.S. trade toolbox any time soon.

— China goofed up relative to Phase 1 accord with U.S. How? The country would not be so lacking in energy supplies had they followed the energy purchase commitments in Phase 1. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, China’s energy purchases at $12.6 billion were only 56% of the seasonal targeted rate. It appears China was too focused restoring depleted grain supplies and got caught short-bought on energy needs. Reports say China this week ordered its state-owned companies to secure energy supplies at all costs, including ordering coal producers to run at full speed even if they exceed annual quota limits. That news pushed natural gas and power prices to record highs in Europe.

— U.S. dominating China’s grain-fed beef market. During the first eight months of 2021, China imported 83,000 MT of beef from the U.S., a ninefold increase from last year at this time, according to Chinese customs data. The U.S. surpassed Australia as the top exporter of grain-fed beef to China with China limiting purchases from the latter due to political tensions. “They don't have a lot of other options when it comes to the well-marbled, grain-fed product,” said Joe Schuele, spokesman at the U.S. Meat Export Federation. "That's the product that really stands out in China." Grain-fed beef is a mid- to high-end product in China, while grass-fed beef typically goes to cheaper channels like mass-market restaurants and supermarkets. Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay dominate the grass-fed market, where a slowing economy is curbing demand. The number of U.S. facilities allowed to ship beef to China has surged to more than 500 thanks to the Phase 1 trade agreement.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Interior to hold oil and gas lease sale. The Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced Wednesday (Sept. 30) that it will hold an oil and gas lease sale for the Gulf of Mexico in compliance with an order from a U.S. District Court judge in Louisiana. The sale is set for Nov. 17 and will be the first offshore lease sale since President Joe Biden took office. Biden halted new lease sales pending a review — including of potential environmental impacts — but a federal judge ordered BOEM to resume the sales citing provisions of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. The Gulf sale will include more than 15,000 unleased blocks “located from three to 231 miles offshore” with “water depths ranging from nine to more than 11,115 feet,” according to a BOEM release. The total area being auctioned is around 80 million acres. Bids are due by Nov. 16.

LIVESTOCK, FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY

— USDA finally sends plan for supplemental DMC payments, other farm programs to OMB for review. USDA has said for months that it will be making supplemental payments to some dairy producers under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program, an effort our contacts have indicated needed to go through a rulemaking process before they can be made. That appears to be getting closer as USDA has forwarded to OMB a rule to amend the DMC to allow for the supplemental payments that were approved last December in the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021.

     Key: “Eligible dairy operations with less than 5 million pounds of established production history may enroll supplemental pounds based upon a formula using 2019 actual milk marketing,” according to a summary of the information sent to OMB. “Supplemental DMC coverage is applicable to calendar years 2021, 2022, and 2023.  Participating dairy operations with supplemental production may receive supplemental payments in addition to payments based on their established production history.”

     The package also includes changes to the Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) and Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) regulations to make them consistent with the 2018 Farm Bill.

     The rule also covers the $9 million in assistance that was in the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2019 to make payments to producers impacted by an Oriental Fruit Fly Quarantine in Florida. There was $9 million appropriated for the payments that may cover crops intended to be harvested in the 2015 and/or 2016 crop growing seasons.

— USDA reports one of its vaccines shown to prevent and protect swine from current Asian ASF strain. Researchers at USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) said one of their African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) vaccine candidates “has been shown to prevent and effectively protect both European and Asian bred swine against the current circulating Asian strain of the virus.” New research published in the journal Transboundary and Emerging Diseases shows ARS has developed a vaccine that “ability to be commercially produced while still maintaining its vaccine efficacy against Asian ASFV strains when tested in both European and Asian breeds of swine.

     The findings also show that a commercial partner can replicate experimental level results and prevent the spread of the virus.”

     Details: ARS said that the onset of immunity happened in one-third of swine by the second week after being vaccinated and that full protection in all swine was seen by the fourth week. "We are working carefully to see our vaccine candidate commercialized through the joint efforts of the U.S. government, and our commercial partner, the Navetco National Veterinary Joint Stock Company,” said ARS researcher Manuel Borca.

— Cheesemakers across Cyprus are happy as the island’s treasured cheese, halloumi, will hit shelves as a product of protected designation of origin (PDO). This means only the cheese made on the island can be sold in the European Union under that name. The decision will also apply to producers in the breakaway republic of northern Cyprus, occupied by Turkey since 1974, where the cheese — salty, rubbery, and best served grilled — is known as hellim.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

— Summary: Global cases of Covid-19 are at 233,799,148 with 4,784,202 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 43,459,971 with 697,849 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 392,909,995 doses administered, 184,601.450 have been fully vaccinated, or 56.2% of the U.S. population.

— Delta variant’s deadly two-month U.S. surge is leveling off, with the seven-day average for daily Covid-19 deaths having steadied near 2,000 for more than a week. The surge has pushed northward into states from Idaho and Montana to Maine, but a cool-down in places like Florida has helped slow the national numbers. Cases started leveling nationally in early September, and death trends tend to trail case trends by several weeks.

— Rural Americans are dying of Covid at more than twice the rate of urbanites. While the initial surge of Covid-19 deaths alluded much of rural America — where around 15% of Americans live — nonmetropolitan mortality rates outpaced those of metropolitan areas as the virus spread nationwide before vaccinations became available, according to data from the Rural Policy Research Institute (link).

— Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh tests positive for Covid-19. Kavanaugh has no symptoms and has been fully vaccinated since January, according to the court.

— Asia surpasses U.S. in vaccinations. About 77% of adults in the U.S. have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. But countries in Asia are starting to speed ahead of the U.S. in their vaccination rates. South Korea, Japan and Malaysia have administered more vaccine doses per 100 people than the United States. Several have surpassed the U.S. in fully vaccinating their populations or are on track to do so, limiting the possible damage from the Delta variant. Separately, only nine African countries have met a target of vaccinating 10 percent of their populations by the end of September, the WHO said.

— Australia to open up. Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, said that the country would reopen its international border from November. Australians fully inoculated against Covid-19 will be permitted to travel abroad once their states’ vaccination rates exceed 80%.

— Experimental pill cuts worst effects of Covid-19, Merck says. Pharmaceutical company Merck says its experimental Covid-19 pill reduced hospitalizations and deaths by half in people recently infected with the coronavirus. Merck plans to seek Emergency Use Authorization in the U.S. and submit marketing applications to other global drug regulators. If authorized by regulatory bodies, molnupiravir could be the first oral antiviral medicine for Covid-19.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Roanoke poll: McAuliffe up 7 Over Youngkin in new poll. A Roanoke College poll of 603 likely voters taken Sept. 12-26 shows former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) leading businessman Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%-41% in the Virginia gubernatorial race. However, Republicans have an enthusiasm edge, with 43% of likely GOP voters saying they’re enthusiastic about voting compared to just 35% of Democrats.

— Nicolas Sarkozy was convicted of illegal campaign financing. The former French president will be allowed to serve his one-year sentence at home under electronic surveillance.

CONGRESS  

— Unknown: Will Pelosi send House members home for two weeks, or keep them in DC?

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE     

— Ahead of the holiday season, U.S. mail delivery will cost more for even less speed. Today, the Postal Service will slow down some mail delivery as part of a controversial 10-year plan to improve cost-effectiveness.

— As many as 80,000 employment-based green cards are set to expire today, leaving foreign workers waiting for a permanent resolution to their immigration in limbo.

— Cotton AWP highest in nearly a decade. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for Upland Cotton rose to 83.92 cents per pound, effective today (Oct. 1), the second time the AWP has been above 80 cents per pound so far this marketing year and the highest since it was 86.63 cents per pound the week ended Nov. 18, 2011. Meanwhile, USDA said that Special Import Quota #24 would be established Oct. 7 for 53,532 bales of Upland cotton, applying to supplies purchased not later than Jan. 4, 2022, and entered into the U.S. not later than April 4.

— A Turkish man declared missing has been found after he accidentally volunteered for his own search party. Beyhan Mutlu had wandered into a forest in Turkey’s western Bursa province after drinking with friends, and authorities began the search there after he never returned home. According to Turkish broadcaster NTV, Mutlu stumbled upon the search party and decided to join it, only to realize hours later it was for him when the team started shouting his name. He was soon driven home by police.

EVENTS AND REPORTS

Friday, Oct. 1
     · Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester to speak.
     · Climate security. Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program virtual discussion on "All Systems Go: Integrating Climate Security Across the U.S. Government," as part of the 2021 Berlin Climate and Security Conference.
     · U.S./EU technology council meeting. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on "Inaugural U.S./EU Trade and Technology Council Meeting Recap," focusing on the Sept. 29-30 meeting in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
     · China views. Hudson Institute virtual discussion on "A Dissident's View of Communist China."

     · Economic reports. Personal Income & Outlays | PMI Mfg. Index Final | ISM Mfg. Index | Construction Spending | Consumer Sentiment   

     · Energy reports. Baker-Hughes Rig Count

     · USDA reports. ERS: Commodity Costs and Returns | Milk Cost of Production Estimates  NASS: Cotton System | Fats & Oils | Grain Crushings | Peanut Prices