This is an updated version of an article that appeared in the Oct. 31 Pro Farmer weekly newsletter.
Election Day will likely see Democrats take control of the House, while the fate of the Senate will depend in large part on the outcome of a handful of closely contested farm-state races.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball newsletter last week saw scope for Democrats to win 225 seats in the House (218 are needed for a majority), with the possibility to take as many as 235 if a larger wave develops. With 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats up for election this year, Crystal Ball sees Democrats with a “slight advantage” to wrest control from Republicans, with the outcome dependent on seven toss-up races.
Races to watch
Important farm-state battles include North Carolina, which Democrats view as a prime pickup opportunity following Republican Sen. Thom Tillis’s decision not to run for re-election. Iowa pits Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek to succeed Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Ohio features a battle between former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican nominee Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat by Ohio’s governor after JD Vance resigned in early 2025 to serve as vice president. Michigan sees Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a close battle with Republican Rep. Mike Rogers to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. In Kansas, challenger Adam Hamilton is attempting to become the first Democrat sent to the Senate by the state since 1932 in a race with incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. And then there’s agricultural powerhouse Texas, where Democratic State Rep. James Talarico is in a close contest with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The outcomes in those traditional farm states, as well as races in Maine and Alaska, may be what determines control of the Senate.
Be wary of the ‘wave’
Democrats are benefiting from the typical midterm boost seen by the party out of power in the White House. But frustration over soaring diesel prices and ag inputs, resentment over a decision to allow beef imports, and the continued impact of tariffs is seen potentially sapping support for Republicans in rural areas. As a result, states that have long trended Republican are in play while pundits talk of a potential “blue wave.”
A note of caution is in order when it comes to talk of waves, however. Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, notes that prediction markets and polls “say nothing about the size or stability of any majority, which will be riven by factional dissent, as the 2025-26 tiny [Republican] majorities have been,” he wrote.
Post-election agenda
The lame-duck session following the midterms will be jam-packed. At the top of the list will be any effort to finalize a farm bill. The Senate Agriculture Committee in a party-line vote in September advanced a version that includes language allowing year-round E15. A standalone House-passed version doesn’t, leaving the issue open to negotiations. Senate Democrats will likely feel emboldened to press their demand for a longer delay to SNAP state cost-sharing rules if they win a majority, making passage of a farm bill in a lame-duck session much less likely. At the same time, Democrats won’t have a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority in the next Congress, meaning they’ll need Republican votes to pass a bill of their own.
In other words, more horse-trading likely lies ahead.
Who’s in charge?
If Democrats prevail, they will control committee chairmanships. California Democrat Jim Costa threw his hat in the ring to become the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. He’ll be competing with Rep. Shontel Brown of Ohio, currently the vice ranking member of the panel. On the other side of the aisle, House Ag Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson of Pennsylvania has petitioned GOP leaders to grant him a waiver to stay on as the panel’s top Republican despite a party-imposed term limit.
Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas is fully expected to remain the top Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee, but the race for top Democrat is seen as wide open. Sen. Corey Booker of New Jersey and Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado are seen potentially jockeying for the top spot. Meanwhile, numerous veterans of both committees from both parties are stepping down.
As noted by our colleagues at Farm Journal, 22 lawmakers with direct agricultural experience are set to leave Congress at the end of the current term, while 12 such “ag voices” are up for re-election in competitive races.