Biden Defends Withdrawal Amid Deadly Chaos in Afghanistan
Centrist Democrats still insist on bipartisan infrastructure vote
In Today’s Digital Newspaper
— Biden defends withdrawal amid deadly chaos in Afghanistan. President Joe Biden offered a defiant defense Monday of his decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, blaming the swift collapse of the Afghan government and chaotic scenes at the Kabul airport on the refusal of the country’s military to stand and fight in the face of the Taliban advance. "I stand squarely behind my decision,” Biden said.
As thousands attempt to leave for the United States, other countries are offering to take in Afghan refugees. Canada has said it would resettle 20,000 Afghan citizens, while the United Kingdom is to announce its plans to accept Afghan refugees in the coming days. The bulk of any refugee exodus will fall on Afghanistan’s neighbors. Of the 2.7 million Afghan refugees registered by the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR, 1.4 million are in Pakistan, while 780,000 are in Iran.
— Day 1 Crop Tour results for South Dakota and Ohio. Scouts on the first day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 151.5 bu. per acre in South Dakota, which was down sharply from last year’s 179.2 bu. per acre yield and well under the three-year average of 170.4 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 996.9 for South Dakota, which compares with 1,250.9 pods last year and 1,036.1 pods for the three-year average.
In Ohio, samples yielded an average corn yield of 185.1 bu. per acre, up sharply from 167.7 bu. per acre last year on Tour and 167.2 bu. per acre for the three-year average. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,195.4 for Ohio, which compared to 1,155.7 pods last year for the state and 1,056.0 pods for the three-year average.
Today, scouts on the eastern leg of the Tour travel from Noblesville, Indiana, to Bloomington, Illinois. Scouts on the western leg will travel from Grand Island to Nebraska City, Nebraska. Tonight, we will release official Tour results from Nebraska and Indiana.
— Western states face first federal water cuts. U.S. officials on Monday declared the first-ever water shortage from a river that serves 40 million people in the West, triggering cuts to some Arizona farmers next year amid a gripping drought. Water levels at the largest reservoir on the Colorado River — Lake Mead — have fallen to record lows. Under a 2019 drought contingency plan, Arizona, Nevada, California and Mexico agreed to give up shares of their water to maintain water levels at Lake Mead. The voluntary measures weren’t enough to prevent the shortage declaration. Eventually, some city and industrial water users could be affected. Arizona will be hardest-hit and lose 18% of its share from the river next year, or 512,000 acre-feet of water. That’s around 8% of the state’s total water use. An acre-foot is enough water to supply one to two households a year. Nevada will lose about 7% of its allocation, or 21,000 acre-feet of water. But it will not feel the shortage mainly because of conservation efforts. California is spared from immediate cuts because it has more senior water rights than Arizona and Nevada. Mexico will see a reduction of roughly 5%, or 80,000 acre-feet.
Farmers in central Arizona, who are among the state’s largest producers of livestock, dairy, alfalfa, wheat and barley, will bear the brunt of the cuts. Their allocation comes from water deemed “extra” by the agency that supplies water to much of the region, making them the first to lose it during a shortage. As a result, the farmers will probably need to fallow land — as many already have in recent years because of persisting drought — and rely even more on groundwater, switch to water-efficient crops and find other ways to use less water.
— Tropical Storm Fred bears down on Florida Panhandle. Tropical Storm Fred made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon, lashing the Gulf Coast with powerful winds that could cause a dangerous storm surge, the National Hurricane Center said.
— NWS weather outlook: Tropical Cyclone Fred will continue to bring heavy rain, flash flooding, gusty winds and a few tornadoes as it tracks across western Georgia Tuesday and across the southern Appalachians to West Virginia by Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures, critical fire weather and poor air quality from wildfires will continue across much of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies through midweek.
— Oil steadied after a three-day slide driven by delta variant worries. West Texas Intermediate traded near $67 after losing almost 3% over the previous three sessions. U.S. gasoline consumption has fallen for a third week, while data from China revealed a slowdown in economic activity in the world’s biggest oil importer in July. U.S. crude prices are near their lowest levels since late May and 11% below last month’s multiyear high.
— German association trims wheat and rapeseed crop estimates. Germany’s association of farm cooperatives today lowered their estimate of the country’s wheat crop by 400,000 MT to 22.39 MMT, which would be a 1.3% decline from the 2020 season. The country dealt with repeated rain in August, though the country was able to skirt the crop damage late-season moisture caused in France. And this came after a cold spring and a hot, dry summer. The association says crop quality is reasonable to good. The group also lowered its 2021 winter rapeseed production forecast from 3.68 MMT to 3.51 MMT, which would be near steady with last year’s crop. Harvest of both crops is winding down. Germany is the EU’s second largest producer of wheat and often its largest rapeseed producer.
— Brazil’s Safrinha corn harvest picks up, quality issues abound… Brazilian farmers in the country’s center-south have harvested 70% of their safrinha corn crop, which lags last year’s pace by seven percentage points, reports the agribusiness consultancy AgRural. Progress picked up over the past week, though quality issues continue. AgRural reports, “In the west and southwest of Paraná ... quality problems caused by frosts abounded, with reports of loads leaving the fields with up to 40% of damage,” adding that there are also quality issued in Mato Grosso do Sul, but they are not as severe.
— China’s sow herd contracts for first time in nearly two years… China’s sow herd declined 0.5% from June to July, the first decline in nearly two years, reports state media. But the herd was still up 25% from year-ago, according to China’s National Development and Reform Commission (CNDRC) spokesman Meng Wei. The country had 45.6 million sows at the end of June, which was still up 2% from late 2017, before African swine fever hit. A dive in prices in recent months led to panic selling and producers have been working to get rid of unproductive sows. An executive at China’s largest pork processor, WH Group, last week warned that the June liquidation of sows had been significant and could push live hog prices higher the second half of 2022. China’s total pig herd climbed 0.8% in July, with the herd now up 31% from year-ago, CNDRC reports.
— Biden administration to call for Covid-19 vaccine booster shots. The U.S. is expected to recommend that Americans get a Covid-19 booster shot eight months after being fully vaccinated.
— Global cases of Covid-19 are at 207,914,588 with 4,372,554 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 36,889,041 with 622,322 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 357,292,057 doses administered, 168.689.357 have been fully vaccinated, or 51.4% of the U.S. population.
— CFAP 2 payouts rose incrementally the past week. Payments authorized under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 2 (CFAP 2) edged up to $13.79 billion as of August 15, up from $13.78 billion the prior week. Acreage-based payments are still the largest at $6.28 billion, with livestock at $3.46 billion, sales commodities are at $2.77 billion, dairy total $1.22 billion and eggs/broilers are at $65.3 million.
CFAP 1 payouts were little changed at $10.6 billion. As for other pandemic-related assistance or the CFAP Additional Assistance effort, USDA has not released any payment information.
— Centrist Democrats still insist on bipartisan infrastructure vote. The nine moderate Democrats who said they would not vote for the fiscal year (FY) 2022 budget resolution unless the House first voted on the bipartisan infrastructure package are sticking to their position despite the plan announced by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to have the chamber vote on a rule for the infrastructure package. “While we appreciate the forward procedural movement on the bipartisan infrastructure agreement, our view remains consistent: We should vote first on the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework without delay and them move to immediate consideration of the budget resolution,” the lawmakers said in a statement. “As the President echoed after the infrastructure bill passed the Senate, we must get shovels in the ground and people to work.” Touting the benefits of the infrastructure plan, the group of lawmakers stated, “We simply can’t afford any delays.” The group of lawmakers includes Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Filemon Vela (D-Texas), Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.), Jared Golden (D-Maine), Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.). With no Republicans backing the FY 2022 budget resolution, the votes of this group remain key for the measure moving forward.
— USDA clears another Brazil plant to export meat to U.S. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced that as of Aug. 12, Mafrig Global SA (establishment (3250) has been added to the list of eligible plants that have been certified to export meat to the US. No further information was offered by the agency for the decision.
— China reports decline in sow herd in July. China’s sow herd was down 0.5% in July compared with June, the first decline in nearly two years, according to state media reports on the numbers. Despite the month-to-month decline, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) spokesman Meng Wei noted the numbers are up 25% from year ago. The country had 45.6 million sows at the end of June. Total pig numbers were announced as being up 0.8% in July compared with June and up 31% from year-ago levels. The total pig herd numbers were put at 439 million, 99.4% of the level seen at the end of 2017 before the outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF).
— USTR seeking comments on annual China WTO compliance report. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) published a notice (link) today (August 17) seeking public input to be provided to the Trade Policy Staff Committee (TPSC) as it prepares its annual report to Congress on China’s compliance with its WTO commitments. Due to Covid, TPSC “will foster public participation via written questions and responses relating to the comments received by the TPSC rather than an in-person hearing.” The notice calls for public written comments to be provided by Sept. 15, with Sept. 29 set as the deadline for the TPSC to pose questions on those comments and responses to those questions are due Oct. 13. Input on trading rights, import regulation, export regulation, internal Chinese policies affecting trade, intellectual property rights, services, rule of law issues, and other WTO commitments. The notice also asks for those submitting comments to “specifically identify unresolved compliance issues that warrant review and evaluation by USTR's China Enforcement Task Force.”
— Financial markets: The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher with a mostly weaker tone to foreign currencies against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has fallen to trade under 1.23% tracking a weaker tone in global government bond yields.
— Precious metals: Gold and silver are seeing buying interest ahead of U.S. trading, with gold around $1,796 per troy ounce and silver around $23.90 per troy ounce
— Crude oil markets: Crude oil prices are seeing moderate declines, with U.S. crude trading around $66.80 per barrel and Brent around $69.15 per barrel. In Asian action, U.S. crude was up 10 cents at $67.36 per barrel while Brent was up 16 cents at $69.62 per barrel.
