Good morning!
Grain futures prices narrowly mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, July corn was up 3/4 cent. July soybeans were 2 3/4 cents lower. July soybean meal was down $0.20 and July bean oil was 36 points lower. July SRW wheat was down 1 1/4 cents and July HRW was 1/2 cent lower. The winter wheat markets are set for their best weekly price gains in two months. (See item below.) The corn market has also pulled out of its tailspin this week. Soybeans continue to languish in a choppy and sideways trading range. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Latest on the war in the Middle East…
--Trump says Iran deal getting closer as Lebanon-Israel truce starts
-- Asia relying on U.S. crude to replace Middle East supply
--Oil, gas recovery may take two years after war, IEA says
--Trump admin. officials urge oil industry to boost output amid war
President Trump on Thursday struck an optimistic tone for prospects that the U.S. and Iran could clinch a permanent ceasefire as the two sides discuss an extended truce ahead of its expiration next week. “It’s looking very good that we’re going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal,” Trump told reporters at the White House Thursday, according to Bloomberg. Talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend, he said. Trump said that Iran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapon and turning over nuclear material. The deal would also include “free oil” and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump added. Tehran has not publicly confirmed it’s made those concessions. The president said he didn’t expect he would have to extend the two-week ceasefire in order to reach a deal, predicting a resolution would be made “fairly soon,” but that if he needed to, he would.
Another active weather day in Midwest, Plains… Another active day of spring weather is in store for much of the central U.S. The Midwest and central/southern Plains will see ample moisture and warm, buoyant air, supporting development of widespread thunderstorms through the day. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the upper Mississippi Valley southwest through the lower Missouri Valley and into portions of the central/southern Plains with an enhanced risk of severe weather (level 3/5), with a broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) covering the general region. Thunderstorms capable of very large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong, are possible. The best chance for strong tornadoes will be over the upper Mississippi Valley, while the best chance for very large hail will be over portions of the central/southern Plains. Beyond the noted thunderstorm threats, winter weather still remains in the forecast, with a wintry mix likely north and west of the surface low track through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. Some light to moderate accumulating snow is also expected under the base of the upper trough to the west through the northern/central Rockies and perhaps into portions of the adjacent High Plains. The well- above-average heat across much of the eastern and central U.S. will remain in place one more day on Friday before the noted cold front begins to bring much cooler, generally below
average temperatures.
Winter wheat futures set for best weekly gains in two months… Winter wheat futures are set for the biggest weekly gains in almost two months, “as persistent weather concerns and tighter fertilizer supplies linked to the Iran war stoked worries over the crop’s supply outlook,” Bloomberg reported overnight. SRW futures are on track to climb nearly 5% on the week, their biggest jump since February. HRW extended its gains to hit its highest level since June of 2024. “Drought conditions were expected to linger in key areas of the U.S. Great Plains, while in Australia, a shortage of farm inputs and persistent dryness weighed on wheat acreage in the major producer and exporter. Dry weather also continued in parts of the Black Sea growing region and some areas of Europe, impacting wheat supply outlook in some of the world’s top producing regions, according to the latest forecasts from Vaisala XWeather,” said the Bloomberg report.
Australia’s wheat acreage seen at lowest in seven years… Australia’s wheat acreage for the 2026/27 crop is expected to fall to a seven-year low due to weak prices and shortages of fertilizer and fuel, Bloomberg reports. “The total wheat area is forecast to shrink by about 7.5% from a year earlier to 11.5 million hectares, with production expected to drop by about a fifth year-on-year to 29.8 million tons. Analysts’ opinions vary on the severity of the downturn, with some expecting a drop of more than 20% in sown acreage and a 40% decline in production, while others predict a smaller change in crop area and production.” The decline “shows how quickly the war in the Middle East has impacted the means of food production. A shortage of farm inputs due to the throttling of shipping via the Strait of Hormuz has forced farmers to revise plans, with rice growers in Southeast Asia also considering reduced planting in the weeks ahead,” said the report.
Canada says its ready for comprehensive U.S. trade agreement… Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Thursday his government wants to resolve trade frictions with the Trump administration as part of a comprehensive agreement. LeBlanc said Canada is ready and willing to resolve issues raised by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, including Canada’s supply-managed dairy system and regulations affecting major U.S. technology firms, Bloomberg reported. LeBlanc emphasized that any progress must come as part of a “larger agreement” that would ease pressure on tariff-affected sectors of Canada’s economy and provide greater certainty around the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review process.
Malaysian palm oil futures set for second straight weekly decline… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,500 per MT on Friday, set for a second weekly decline, down about 1.4% so far. Weakness stemmed from softer soyoil prices in Chicago markets and sluggish exports, with cargo surveyors noting April 1–15 shipments fell over 34% mom amid muted festive demand. Easing Middle East tensions also pressured crude oil, dampening risk appetite. Still, losses were capped by a weaker ringgit and firmer edible oil prices on China’s Dalian exchange. On the demand side, purchases from India, the largest consumer, are expected to rebound after March imports dropped 19% to a three-month low. Supply factors remained supportive, with inventories falling for a third month to a seven-month low. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s palm-based biodiesel consumption is projected to rise by more than 300,000 MT annually, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, as the country joins top supplier Indonesia in boosting blending mandates to curb reliance on energy imports.
Cattle futures see heavy profit-taking… June live cattle on Thursday fell $3.45 to $247.625. May feeder cattle fell $3.85 to $367.10. The cattle futures markets saw heavy, follow-through profit-taking selling pressure amid reports of weaker cash cattle trading taking place this week. Bulls are not in trouble but more selling pressure on Friday that would produce technically bearish weekly low closes would be one clue that near-term market tops are in place. USDA at midday Thursday reported light cash cattle trading so far this week, with steers averaging $245.89 and heifers $246.00. Last week’s average cash trade was $248.38.
Lean hog futures continue to bleed… June lean hog futures fell $0.275 on Thursday to $101.675 and hit another more-than-three-month low. The lean hog futures market mild technical selling pressure after heavier selling earlier this week. The latest CME lean hog index is up 27 cents at $90.60. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 6 cents at $90.66. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $69.80.