Good morning!
Grain futures prices mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, July corn was down 1/4 cent. July soybeans were 3 1/4 cents lower. July soybean meal was down $2.70 and July bean oil was 54 points up. July SRW wheat was up 7 1/4 cents and July HRW was 13 3/4 cents higher and hit a two-week high. Winter wheat futures are being led higher by HRW amid heightened concerns about dry weather key U.S. growing regions. (See item below.) Corn’s solid price gains on Wednesday, if followed by decent gains today, would begin to suggest that market has put in a near-term bottom. The soybean futures market got no lasting overnight traction from Wednesday’s NOPA monthly soybean crush report for March, which at 226.16 million bushels reached a new record high for the month and was a 16% increase over the previous year. U.S. soybean oil stocks decreased to 1.1 billion pounds, a drop of roughly 24% compared to the same time last year. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $92.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.28 percent.
Latest on the war in the Middle East…
—Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic remains way down amid blockade
—Bessent ‘optimistic’ gasoline prices will drop to $3 per gallon over summer
—Half-full oil tanker heading to Japan highlights scramble for crude
—Pakistan faces extensive blackouts as gas shortfall worsen
—Global stock markets upbeat as traders factoring in war winding down
Pakistan has stepped up efforts to ensure the U.S. and Iran prolong a ceasefire that’s set to end next week, allowing more time for the warring sides to negotiate a lasting peace deal. Both countries are considering a two-week ceasefire extension, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with the matte . Neither side desires restarting fighting, said another person familiar with the discussions, with the war having devastated Iran’s infrastructure and sent energy prices soaring, including in the U.S. “Still, there are many contentious issues for the countries to resolve, including the reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic. For now, Washington and Tehran are saying they haven’t agreed to any ceasefire that lasts beyond late Tuesday U.S. time,” said the report.
Drought intensifying across U.S. Plains states… World Weather Inc. late Wednesday issued a special report saying drought is intensifying across the U.S. central and southern Plains. “A significant amount of the hard red winter wheat is rated poor or very poor and there is a pressing need for rain. The High Plains region will remain mostly dry through the middle of next week, with temperatures often running above or well above normal for this time of year.” Eastern sections of Oklahoma and Kansas will see periods of rain and thunderstorms that will alleviate some of the dryness, though not enough to completely fix the drought. “Wheat conditions will likely deteriorate and the need for abundant rain will remain high heading into early May.”
U.N. pushing for safe fertilizer passage through Strait of Hormuz… The United Nations is ready to set up a corridor to allow fertilizer to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz and reach farmers for the planting season — but doing so hinges on a political agreement to go forward, Bloomberg reported. “The U.N. is ready — we have the teams identified, we have the system prepared, we have the technical design of the mechanism. We just need a political and diplomatic solution that allows us to start,” U.N. Undersecretary General Jorge Moreira da Silva, who is overseeing the initiative, said in an interview. Talks with U.N. member states are underway in a bid to reach an international agreement, da Silva said. He didn’t share who was involved but said he’s having “extensive conversations with countries in the region, not only those that are more direct affected and involved in the conflict, but also globally.”
Fed’s beige book: war causing business uncertainty… The conflict in the Middle East was cited by the Federal Reserve’s beige book as a major source of uncertainty that has complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture. Wednesday afternoon’s Fed report said U.S. economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace across most regions, despite higher uncertainty, and price growth remained moderate overall, but energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all 12 Fed districts. The U.S. labor market remained stable across most districts, but several districts noted increased demand for temporary or contract workers, as firms remained cautious about committing to permanent hires due to the uncertainty.
Baltic Dry Index rises to four-month high… A key gauge of bulk shipping rates climbed to the highest since early December, driven by a surge in demand and tightening vessel supply. The Baltic Dry Index rose 5.5% to 2,484 points on Wednesday in London, extending its rally for a ninth straight session. The index tracks freight rates across Capesize, Panamax and Supermax vessels hauling raw materials including iron ore, coal and grains. Demand was concentrated in Capesize ships, the segment most exposed to iron ore.
China’s economic growth stronger than expected… China’s economic growth rebounded more than expected in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 5% from a year ago. Industrial output grew 5.7% in March from a year ago, while retail sales increased 1.7%, down from a 2.8% expansion in the first two months. The economy’s growth was driven by strong manufacturing and exports. However, consumer spending and private investment continued to cool, resulting in an increasingly lopsided economy.
Euro zone inflation upticks… Euro-zone inflation was faster than initially reported in March, suggesting stronger upward pressure on prices from the U.S.-Iran war. Last month’s reading was revised up to 2.6%, year-on-year, from an initial estimate of 2.5%, Eurostat said Thursday. The gauges for core and services inflation came in at 2.3% and 3.2%. March marked this year’s first increase in the inflation rate beyond the European Central Bank’s 2% annually target as the fighting in the Middle East drives energy costs higher. The revision followed similar moves this week by France, Italy and Spain.
Malaysian palm oil futures weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures held below MYR 4,500 per MT Thursday, hovering near a five-week low, as weak exports weighed on sentiment. Cargo surveyors estimated April 1–15 shipments plunged over 34% mom, reflecting the absence of festive demand. So far this week, contracts logged a second straight weekly decline, pressured by uncertainty over U.S.–Iran talks to end the Middle East conflict. Still, the downside was cushioned by firmer edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago markets, alongside expectations that India, the top consumer, may boost purchases ahead of seasonal demand after March imports fell 19% to a three-month low. On the supply side, Malaysia’s inventories dropped for a third month to a seven-month low in March. Kuala Lumpur is also considering expanding biodiesel use to ease fuel strains amid the crisis. In key buyer China, solid Q1 2026 GDP growth lent support, though momentum may weaken as demand-supply imbalances and fragile external conditions persist.
Cattle futures see routine profit-taking… June live cattle on Wednesday fell $0.35 to $251.075. May feeder cattle lost $3.90 to $370.95. The cattle futures markets saw routine profit-taking pressure that is not unhealthy for the price uptrends to be extended. Solid cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain intact. USDA reported light cash cattle trading so far this week at an average of $247.93. Last week’s average cash trade was $248.38. That’s up $3.42 from the prior week’s average of $244.96.
Lean hog futures bears in technical control… June lean hog futures on Wednesday fell $0.50 to $101.95 and hit a more-than-three-month low. The lean hog futures market saw more technical selling pressure at mid-week, amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 6 cents at $90.33. Today’s projected cash index price is up 27 cents at $90.60. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $69.80.