Good morning!
Grain prices firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 2 1/4 cents, November soybeans up 3 3/4 cents and December winter wheat futures markets were 1 1/2 cents higher. It appears to be a “Turnaround Tuesday” in the corn and soybean futures markets, following Monday’s losses. The corn market bulls are working to keep alive a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart for December futures. November soybean prices are in the middle of a choppy trading range but continue to be hamstrung by a lethargic meal futures market.Winter wheat market bulls are hoping recent price action is “basing” at lower levels that will soon put in market bottoms. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hit a seven-week low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $63.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.04 percent.
Midwest to see stormy weather… The National Weather Service today reported that across the mid-section of the country rounds of heavy rain associated with clusters of thunderstorms can be expected today into Wednesday in large sections of the central to northern Plains in response to a mid- to upper-level system pushing out of the northern Rockies. From Wednesday into Thursday, a low-pressure system is forecast to become more consolidated over the north-central U.S.Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today and especially on Wednesday across the central to northern Plains, with these showers and thunderstorms continuing into Thursday as the system will be moving slowly. “These rains will bring relief to areas of western Nebraska and southern South Dakota that are experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions,” said the NWS. Temperatures across the lower 48 states will be above average temperatures over the next few days in the last full week of summer.
U.S. soybean crop drying down fast… If you’re wondering whether you need to harvest soybeans soon, the answer is yes – maybe even this week – according to a Farm Journal report. The warmer weather pattern that has set in across much of the Midwest is resulting in a rapid dry-down of soybean crops, advancing moisture losses in the beans (seeds) faster than what many farmers might be anticipating. The U.S. Drought Monitor released last Thursday, Sept. 11, reported nearly one-fourth (22%) of all U.S. soybean acres are experiencing some level of extreme dryness or drought.
USDA crop progress reports: corn, soybean conditions downtick slightly… USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. corn crop condition declined 1% and is now rated at 67% good/excellent.Five states reported the corn condition improved last week, 12 said the corn condition declined and 1 was unchanged.Most of the improvements were generally found in the western locations, while most of the declines were found in the central and eastern locations. The corn condition has declined for three weeks in a row. Seven percent of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday. The U.S. soybean crop condition also declined 1% and is rated 63% good/excellent. Seven states reported the soybean condition improved last week and 11 reported the soybean condition declined. Most of the improvements were found in the western locations, while most of the declines were found in the central and eastern locations. Five percent of the soybean crop was harvested as of Sunday. The U.S. spring wheat crop was 94% harvested. The U.S. winter wheat crop was 11% planted as of Sunday. The U.S. cotton crop was in 52% good to excellent condition, 34% fair and 14% poor to very poor condition. Nine percent of the cotton crop was harvested as of Sunday.
U.S.-China trade talks went generally well… There are signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade talks held in Madrid, Spain. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to speak Friday to finalize some terms, with discussions also covering the divestment of Chinese-owned TikTok. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the commercial terms for the TikTok deal had already been settled. However, China on Monday criticized a U.S. proposal urging its allies, including the European Union and Group of Seven countries, to impose tariffs of 50% to 100% on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s purchases of Russian oil. China called the U.S. move “a typical act of unilateral bullying and economic coercion,” China’s commerce ministry said it violated prior consensus between Chinese and U.S. leaders and risked destabilizing global trade and supply chains.
U.S.-India trade talks continue… The U.S. and India are stepping up talks to resolve their trade tensions, with two separate teams of officials meeting in New Delhi this week, according to a Bloomberg report. The Indian team began talks Tuesday morning with the visiting U.S. trade delegation led by Brendan Lynch, assistant trade representative for South and Central Asia, a person familiar with the matter said in New Delhi, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. The meeting between the trade teams is expected to decide the future course of India-U.S. negotiations, India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal said on Monday. The two sides are seeking to resolve their differences after the U.S. slapped India with a 50% tariff last month — the highest in Asia — to penalize the country for its trade barriers and Russian oil purchases.
Tyson Foods to stop using high-fructose corn syrup… Tyson Foods on Monday said it would stop using high-fructose corn syrup in branded products by the end of the year, the latest company to change recipes as the Trump administration takes aim at ingredients used in processed foods. The Arkansas-based meatpacking giant owns brands such as Jimmy Dean, Ball Park and Hillshire. Tyson said the decision was voluntary and follows its previous efforts to reduce sodium, sugars and other food additives. Chief Executive Donnie King said Tyson continuously reviews and assesses its product portfolio to meet the needs of consumers. Tyson, which processes one-fifth of all chicken, beef and pork sold in the U.S., said its goal was to stop using high-fructose corn syrup and the other ingredients in its U.S. branded products by the end of the year. Tyson products that list the sweetener as an ingredient range from frozen honey battered breast tenders to frozen Jimmy Dean sausage, egg and cheese croissant breakfast sandwiches.
FOMC meeting starts today… The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins this morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut, which would be the first since November of 2024. The decision comes amid criticism the Fed has been slow to react to weakening U.S. economic data. Updated Fed projections on Wednesday may show slower U.S. growth and rising unemployment, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to face sharp questioning on Fed monetary policy at his post-meeting press conference Wednesday afternoon. Gold prices hit a record high overnight on notions of a more dovish U.S. monetary policy in the coming months. The Euro currency hit a four-year high overnight, ahead of the expected Fed rate cut Wednesday afternoon.
Cattle futures markets again show resilience… Live and feeder cattle futures Markets Monday posted strong gains after suffering knock-down punches last Friday. Once again, bulls Monday showed they can bounce back strongly. Key for the cattle futures markets bulls now will be to show good follow-through buying strength soon, which would begin to suggest last week’s lows were just “reaction lows” in revived price uptrends on the daily charts. But right now the bulls still have some heavy lifting to do to suggest price uptrends can be restarted. USDA Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $239.33. That compares to the prior week’s cash cattle trade that averaged $242.55.
Lean hog futures market bulls remain in control… The lean hog futures market saw some mild technical buying Monday. A solid price uptrend remains in place on the daily chart for October lean hog futures, with prices not far below last week’s contract high. The hog market bulls were also encouraged Monday by news that U.S. and China trade officials are making progress in talks going on in Madrid, Spain. A new U.S.-China trade accord could mean more China purchases of U.S. pork. The latest CME lean hog index is up 10 cents to $106.14. Today’s projected cash hog index is steady at $106.14. Monday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $106.85.
USDA reports today—Tuesday
-- Vegetables and Pulses Data
-- Fruit & Tree Nut Data
-- Feed Grains Database
-- Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables
-- Oil Crops Outlook
-- Feed Outlook
-- Wheat Outlook
-- Rice Outlook