Good morning!
Grain futures higher overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 3 1/4 cents. March soybeans were 10 cents higher and hit a four-week high, while March SRW and HRW wheat futures were up 5 to 7 cents. The corn market bulls were pleased that President Trump has endorsed year-round E15 gasoline (see item below). The slumping U.S. dollar is also a bullish element for the grain markets (see item below). The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil futures prices a bit firmer and trading around $62.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.24 percent.
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Below-average temps remain over eastern half of U.S… The National Weather Service today reports colder-than-average temperatures are lingering over the eastern half of the U.S., and will continue to do so for the next few days. World Weather Inc. said today in a special report:
- “A reinforcing surge of arctic air is developing and will be moving south from Canada later this week. With so much snow and sleet coverage present across the Midwest, northern Delta, Kansas, and Oklahoma, the cold air mass will not be able to moderate quite as much as it would otherwise when it moves south. This will help lead to significant cold anomalies across the southern U.S. again late Friday into Tuesday. Hard freezes are expected down into southern Texas, the Gulf of America coast and down into interior southern Florida. Crops at risk of more damage include sugarcane and citrus. Temperatures in Florida are likely to be the coldest of the season so far and heating fuel demand will remain very strong through early next week.”
Meantime, the NWS said cold air moving over the Great Lakes will create lake-effect snow downwind from the lakes through Friday. In addition, high pressure moving southward out of central Canada will create upslope snow over the northern/central Plains from this afternoon through Friday. Moreover, low pressure developing over the southern Plains will draw moisture northward over the lower Mississippi Valley, producing scattered showers on Thursday evening. This afternoon, light snow will develop over the northern intermountain region and northern Rockies through Friday.
Trump says year-round E15 is near… President Trump said in a speech in Iowa Tuesday afternoon that year-round E15 gasoline sales in the U.S. will happen. Trump said in his speech he is trusting House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to broker a deal in Congress. Lawmakers are “very close to getting it done,” said Trump. He said a bill supporting year-round E15 would come quickly. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a press release Tuesday evening that “President Trump is honoring his commitment to America’s farmers and energy producers in Iowa by announcing his support for the nationwide year-round sale of E-15. As Congress continues to work through the details, the President has been clear-- get a bill that allows nationwide E-15 to his desk, and he will sign it to unleash American homegrown row crops for biofuel use like never before.”
Trump says U.S. dollar weakness is good for U.S. business… The U.S. dollar index on Tuesday hit a four-year low and suffered its steepest one-day drop since last year’s tariff rollout after President Trump said on Tuesday afternoon he didn’t think the currency had weakened excessively. “This may very well be the beginning of the next leg lower in the dollar, and many may not be prepared for it,” said Stephen Jen, a former Morgan Stanley currency analyst, and as reported by Bloomberg. “There has been a generation of currency analysts accustomed to dealing with a strong dollar and a strong U.S. economy, and unable to process the scenario of a weakening dollar and a strong U.S. economy.” The U.S. dollar’s recent decline is great for U.S. businesses, Trump told reporters in Iowa. While that’s in line with previous commentary from U.S. officials, his remarks moved currency markets late Tuesday, partly because they appeared to validate the steep decline in the greenback in recent sessions. Gold rallied to another record high overnight, at $5,345.00 an ounce, basis April Comex futures, supported in part by the slumping U.S. dollar index.
Fed decision day; likely no change in U.S. rates… The Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning ends early this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is widely expected to keep U.S. interest rates unchanged. However, the FOMC statement and Powell’s remarks at his press conference will be parsed by the marketplace for any clues regarding the trajectory of monetary policy in the coming months, including Fed officials’ comments on inflation.
China buying Canadian canola again… China has resumed its purchases of Canadian canola, an early sign of a revival in the trade after the nations reached a deal this month, Bloomberg reported. “Crushers in the country have booked cargoes of Canadian rapeseed, known locally as canola, for loading in the next few months, according to people with knowledge of the shipments. Importers also booked some canola meal for loading between April to June, said other people involved in the deals,” said the report. China’s imports of canola and canola products from Canada — a trade valued at C$4.9 billion ($3.6 billion) in 2024 — had plunged last year after Beijing imposed steep levies on the goods, a move seen as retaliation for Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other industrial products.
Amazon cutting 16,000 more jobs… Amazon.com Inc. announced plans to terminate about 16,000 corporate employees, “ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy amid rising competition over artificial intelligence,” reported Bloomberg. The company will offer U.S.-based employees 90 days to search for a new role internally, as well as severance and other transition support, Beth Galetti, senior vice president of people experience and technology at Amazon, said Wednesday in a blog post.
ADM pays big fine to SEC… Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. agreed to pay $40 million to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that former executives sought to boost a flailing business unit’s bottom line to meet company targets, the regulator said Tuesday. The Chicago-based company didn’t admit to or deny the SEC’s allegations. Two former executives, Vince Macciocchi and Ray Young, agreed to pay more than $500,000 each including disgorgement and civil penalties. “We are pleased to put these matters behind the company,” said ADM Chief Executive Officer Juan Luciano. ADM also said the Department of Justice had closed its investigation of the company with no further action.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend rally… Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher on Wednesday, hovering around MYR 4,265 per MT and extending gains for a third consecutive session, as prices remained near a two-month peak. The upside was supported by firmer edible oil prices on the Dalian and Chicago markets, alongside stronger export estimates. Cargo surveyors reported that Malaysian palm oil exports for January 1–25 rose between 7.97% and 9.97% compared with the same period in December. Meanwhile, demand is expected to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year and the Ramadan season in February, while market participants also anticipate a sharp decline in January output due to seasonal factors. However, gains were capped by a firmer ringgit, which tends to reduce export competitiveness, and caution ahead of China’s January PMI data, given the country’s role as a key buyer.
Cattle futures markets pause… April live cattle on Tuesday fell 60 cents to $237.40. March feeder cattle lost 60 cents to $362.00. The cattle futures markets paused and saw selling interest limited by the lingering effects of last Friday afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report that leaned overall price-friendly. USDA Tuesday reported very light cash cattle trading activity so far this week, averaging $234.00. USDA Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $234.70, up $2.20 from the week prior.
Lean hog futures hit another contract high… April lean hog futures on Tuesday rose 10 cents to $96.825 and hit another contract high early on. Selling interest was limited by solid technicals and rising cash hog and CME lean hog index prices. The latest CME lean hog index is up 39 cents at $84.01. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 42 cents at $84.43. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Tuesday was $60.71.