Good morning!
Grain prices steady to weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1/4 cent, November soybeans were down 4 1/2 cents and hit a six-week low overnight. December winter wheat futures markets were 1 3/4 to 3 cents lower. Corn bulls are enjoying a price uptrend in December futures but they need to show fresh power early this week to keep it alive. Soybean bulls are fading fast and the bears are now working on a fledgling price downtrend on the daily chart for November futures. Meal futures are trending lower and the bleeding needs to stop in that market for soybean prices to recover. The winter wheat bulls need to “eat their Wheaties” this week as prices continue to languish not far above their recent contract lows. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly down and trading around $62.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.125 percent.
More stormy weather in the Midwest, Plains early this week… The National Weather Service today said widespread clusters of thunderstorms will occur from the Midwest and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys west through the central/southern Plains through at least mid-week. A continual flow of Gulf moisture northward will fuel heavy rainfall-producing storms, with repeated rounds of storms and long-duration rainfall and heavy totals. For Monday, the current greatest risk for heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is expected across portions of western/south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma. More isolated instances of flash flooding are possible from the Ohio Valley west through the Mid-South, Ozarks, and into portions of the central/southern Plains. The Middle Missouri Valley and portions of southwest Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle have slight risks of severe weather, mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Well above average highs across much of the central/eastern U.S. as well as the west coast will feel more like summer the next couple of days.
AgriTalk Radio speaks with USDA Secretary Rollins… AgriTalk Radio’s host, Chip Flory, talked with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins Friday afternoon. The USDA secretary discussed the trade deal announced with Taiwan, calling it a game changer for U.S. farmers and ranchers. On China, Rollins noted President Trump’s conversation Friday morning with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying the two mainly discussed TikTok and related items, but she noted, “…we are making sure we focus on our soybean farmers. There should be good news for farmers very soon.”Regarding progress on the U.S.-China trade front, Rollins said, “We have the world’s top deal maker, top negotiator making sure everything he does at every turn and every corner; he is hyper-focused on getting the deal.” When asked by AgriTalk about economic support for U.S. farmers Rollins said, “If necessary, we would step into the gap again. I have been in lots of conversations on The Hill and across the cabinet… We are putting together (lots of) options so that when the President decides it’s time to step in we are ready. We want to make sure we’ve got the backs of our farmers.”
Mexico confirms northernmost case of New World Screwworm… USDA said in a press release Sunday that Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) confirmed a new case of New World screwworm (NWS) in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. This is now the northernmost detection of NWS during this outbreak, “and the one most threatening to the American cattle and livestock industry,” said the press release. Sabinas Hidalgo is located near the major highway from Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, to Laredo, Texas, which is one of the most heavily trafficked commercial thoroughfares in the world. “Protecting the United States from NWS is non-negotiable and a top priority of the Trump Administration,” said U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. “This is a national security priority. We have given Mexico every opportunity and every resource necessary to counter NWS since announcing the NWS Bold Plan in June 2025. Nevertheless, American ranchers and families should know that we will not rely on Mexico to defend our industry, our food supply, or our way of life.”
USDA cattle-on-feed report leans price-friendly for futures… Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report showed still historically tight cattle supplies in feedlots. The report showed cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1. That’s 1 percent below September 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.78 million head, 10 percent below the same time in 2024. Net placements were 1.73 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 355,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 265,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 390,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 420,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 260,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 90,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.57 million head, 14 percent below the same time in 2024. Marketings were the lowest for August since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 51,000 head during August, 6 percent below the same period in 2024.
U.S. lawmakers travel to China… A group of U.S. congress members traveled to China over the weekend and called for better military communication between the U.S. and China in a meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun. The two countries are seeking to steady relations ahead of a potential summit meeting between their leaders. U.S. Representative Adam Smith said today the bipartisan delegation wants to have “open lines of communication” about the countries’ shared interest in peace and security. In his opening remarks, Dong expressed hopes that the visit will help the U.S. understand China and its military more. The lawmakers, including Representatives Michael Baumgartner, Ro Khanna and Chrissy Houlahan, on Sunday met with Premier Li Qiang, who called their visit an “ice-breaking trip.” It marks the first official visit by U.S. House representatives in six years, signaling a diplomatic thaw. They were joined by Ambassador David Perdue.
China holds key lending rates at record lows… The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged at record lows for the fourth straight month in September 2025, in line with market forecasts, according to TradingEconomics.com. The move came amid signs of easing China-U.S. trade tensions, but against a backdrop of weakening domestic momentum and fresh U.S. monetary policy easing. The one-year loan prime rate was kept at 3.0%, while the five-year benchmark, which guides mortgage costs, remained at 3.5%.
Trump continues pressure on European countries to stop buying Russian oil… President Trump on Saturday renewed his call for European countries to stop buying crude oil from Russia to halt the war in Ukraine. Trump has chided Europe repeatedly for its Russian energy purchases, despite most European nations ending direct purchases of Russian oil after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reported Bloomberg. Trump suggested that U.S. ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker increase pressure on Europe, saying “they have to stop buying oil from Russia” to squeeze oil prices and potentially stop the war.” With no end in sight for the war in Ukraine, Trump reiterated his frustration with the Russian leader, saying he’s “very disappointed in President Putin.”
Gold, silver prices power still higher… Gold prices hit a record high and silver a 14-year high overnight as flows into gold exchange-traded funds hit a three-year high. Traders and investors betting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-cutting cycle will extend. Gold and silver have been among the year’s best performing commodities markets. Price-supportive factors include the Fed easing its monetary policy, major central banks adding gold to their reserve holdings and lingering geopolitical tensions that are driving safe-haven demand for the two precious metals. Comex gold overnight hit $3,730.70 an ounce, while silver hit $42.865 an ounce.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures climbed nearly 1%, trading above MYR 4,450 per MT Monday and snapping two sessions of losses, supported by a weaker ringgit and stronger rival soyoil on the Dalian exchange. Firmer crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, also lent support. On the demand side, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services estimated that Malaysian palm oil exports for September 1–20 rose 8.7% from the same period a month earlier, with purchases from top buyer India expected to remain strong ahead of the mid-October festive season. India’s imports may stay above 800,000 MT in September after surging to a 13-month high of 990,528 MT in August. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board set the October crude palm oil reference price at a level that keeps the export duty at 10%.
Cattle futures markets show price strength late last week… October live cattle futures Friday rose $1.20 to $233.575 and for the week were up $3.60. September feeder cattle futures Friday rose 97 1/2 cents to $359.15 and for the week up $8.75. The live and feeder cattle futures markets Friday closed out the trading week at or near their weekly highs. That’s a positive technical signal heading into trading this week. However, the cash cattle and beef market fundamentals continued to weaken last week, which may limit the upside in cattle futures markets this week, despite live cattle futures’ discounts to the cash cattle market. Cash cattle trading turned more active Friday. USDA at midday Friday reported steers fetched an average price of $237.02 and heifers an average of $236.71. That compares to the week prior’s average cash cattle trade at $239.33.
Lean hog futures saw late-week price consolidation… October lean hog futures Friday rose 50 cents to $97.975 and for the week rose 85 cents. After October hog futures scored a contract high last Tuesday, the market spent the rest of the week in consolidation mode, which is not bearish. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart for October hogs, which will continue to invite the speculators to play the long side. Futures’ discounts to the cash hog index will also limit selling interest in futures in the near term. The latest CME lean hog index fell 16 cents to $105.70 as of Sept 17. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 36 cents to $105.34. The national direct five-day rolling average cash price Friday was $105.92. Hog market watchers will get an update on fall hog supplies in the Thursday, Sept. 25 USDA Hogs & Pigs Report.
USDA reports today—Monday
-- Export Inspections
-- Cotton Ginnings
-- Chickens & Eggs
-- Milk Production
-- Crop Progress