Good morning!
Grain prices slightly down overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1 cent, November soybeans were 1 1/2 cents lower and December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were 3/4 cent to 2 cents lower. December corn remains in a price uptrend on the daily chart, but stiff chart resistance lies at the September high. November soybeans have seen a bearish pennant pattern form on the daily chart this week. December soybean meal continues to struggle, with prices just barely above the contract low. Winter wheat bulls are having a decent week and would gain more technical strength if prices today closed at a technically bullish weekly high close. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $64.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.18 percent.
Lower U.S. Midwest, north Delta and Tennessee dry conditions ease… Rain earlier this week brought some much- needed relief to drought and dryness from the northern Delta into southern Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and southern portions of both Indiana and Ohio, said World Weather in a special report today. “The rain came too late to help late- season crop production, but it did settle the dust and improved topsoil moisture for wheat planting this autumn.” More rain is needed to get river and stream flows to increase a little more, but with the harvest looming it would be best for follow up rain to fall later in the autumn. Quick drying in the coming week will get farmers back into their fields relatively fast.Rain totals this week varied greatly from one location to another, but the vast majority of the region from southern Missouri and northern Arkansas through the northern Delta and most of Tennessee to Kentucky southern Indiana and southern Ohio received 1.00 to 3.00 inches. The rain brought relief to many areas after weeks of well below normal precipitation. Some of the lightest rain of 1.00 to 2.00 inches failed to bring much lasting relief to dryness, “but with the harvest underway and many crops maturing it would be best that rain stays light for now…. Most importantly, topsoil moisture has been improved for future wheat planting, emergence and establishment and the dust has been settled for better summer crop harvest conditions,” said World Weather.
Argentina’s hefty grain sales this week have its central bank flush with currency… Argentina’s Treasury is moving to scoop up large amounts of foreign currency in block trades just as $7 billion from grain exports enters the market, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter and reported by Bloomberg. “Central bank officials have contacted the trading desks at major financial institutions on behalf of the Treasury, asking to be notified whenever a client posts a sizable dollar-sale order, the people said, requesting anonymity to discuss private conversations with Argentine officials.” The Argentine Treasury aims to buy those dollars directly from sellers to prevent large inflows from strengthening the peso excessively. Argentina’s currency market has been flooded by dollars from grain exporters rushing to take advantage of a temporary tax holiday. President Javier Milei announced Monday he would exempt grain exports from taxes in a bid to shore up the peso as investors fled the currency after the ruling party suffered a crushing election defeat. By Wednesday night, Argentina said a $7 billion cap set by the government for tax-free exports had been reached.
Key U.S. inflation report out today… The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, out this morning, is expected to rise 0.3%, month-on-month in August, following a 0.2% gain in July. The Core PCE (minus food and energy) is projected to increase 0.2%, below the 0.3% rise in each of the previous two months. Annually, headline PCE inflation is seen rising to 2.7%, which would mark the highest in six months, from 2.6%. Core PCE inflation is seen to hold at 2.9%. The PCE inflation data is said to be very closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
Notable U.S. dollar strength this week… The U.S. dollar index on Thursday posted solid gains and hit a four-week high in the wake of an upbeat U.S. GDP report that was better than market expectations. The GDP report and other recent U.S. data are forcing traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s trajectory for interest-rate cuts, with attention turning to today’s PCE inflation report. Having nearly priced in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by year-end, the marketplace now sees the odds of that closer to 50-50. “The data serve as a warning sign for the Fed,” Danske Bank strategists wrote in a note, predicting the U.S. dollar and short-end Treasury yields could continue to climb in the near term. “With growth momentum proving stronger than expected, market focus could swing back to the inflation mandate.”
USDA hogs and pigs report: Hog inventory down 1%... USDA Thursday afternoon reported the U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2025 was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 1, 2024, but up 1 percent from June 1, 2025. A Reuters survey expected the hog herd on September 1 was likely about the same size as it was a year earlier. The breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter. The market hog inventory, at 68.5 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, but up 1 percent from last quarter.The June-August 2025 pig crop, at 34.1 million head, was down 3 percent from 2024. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.88 million head, down 3 percent from 2024. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.82 for the June-August period, compared to 11.72 last year. U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.86 million sows farrow during the September-November 2025 quarter, down 2 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 4 percent from the same period two years earlier. Intended farrowings for December 2025-February 2026, at 2.82 million sows, are down slightly from the same period one year earlier, and down 4 percent from the same period two years earlier. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 52 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, down 1 percent from the previous year.
Top Indian vegoil buyer sees cheaper soy oil replacing palm oil… India, the world’s largest vegetable oil buyer, is poised to boost soybean oil purchases next year as bumper global soybean crops have made soybean oil cheaper than rival palm oil, according to a top importer and as reported by Bloomberg. “Indian households are price-conscious and flexible in switching to cheaper vegetable oils,” said Aashish Acharya, a vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., in an interview at a Globoil, a vegetable oil conference. India’s soy oil imports will rise by about 9% next year, starting in November, from an estimated 5.5 million tons imported in 2024-25, he said in Mumbai on Thursday.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices little changed… Malaysian palm oil futures on Friday were little changed, trading near MYR 4,440 after rising in the previous two sessions. Support from stronger Dalian oils and higher crude oil prices was offset by weakness in Chicago soyoil. Market participants also assessed the EU’s decision to delay its anti-deforestation law for a second time, postponing the ban on imports of commodities such as palm oil linked to forest destruction by another year. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council welcomed the move, saying it allows the EU more time to address concerns over implementation. For the week, palm oil is on track for a moderate 0.4% rise, snapping declines in the past two periods.
Live, feeder cattle futures fade late this week to begin to suggest market tops in place… The live and feeder cattle markets Thursday succumbed to more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation as the cattle and fresh beef markets are deteriorating a bit, as are the technical postures for both markets. That begins to suggest the live and feeder cattle markets have peaked. Some risk aversion in the general marketplace Thursday also kept the buyers in the cattle futures markets scarce. The U.S. government is on the verge of a shutdown, with the Trump administration warning of mass firings in federal agencies if a shutdown occurs. USDA at midday Thursday reported that so far this week very light cash cattle trading has occurred at an average price of $232.00. Last week’s cash cattle trading average price was $237.51.
Lean hog futures get slightly friendly snout count… Thursday’s USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report showed the U.S. hog herd on September 1 was down 1% from a year earlier, whereas a Reuters survey of analysts showed they expected the herd size to be about the same as last year. On Thursday, the lean hog futures bulls got right back in the saddle after a bout of profit taking Wednesday. The speculative hog traders are still wanting to ride that bullish futures train amid firmly positive technicals and amid a rebound in fresh pork prices late this week. The latest CME lean hog index is up 10 cents at $105.00. Today’s projected cash hog index is up 6 cents at $105.06. Thursday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $105.10.
USDA reports today—Friday
--Turkeys Raised
--Peanut Stocks and Processing
--Cold Storage
--Potatoes
--Peanut Prices