Good morning!
Grain futures firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 2 1/2 cents. May soybeans were 4 cents higher. May soybean meal was up $0.50 and May bean oil was 48 points higher. May SRW wheat was up 3 1/2 cents and May HRW wheat was 4 1/2 cents higher. If corn, beans and winter wheat futures can hold their overnight gains into the close today, all would produce technically bullish weekly high closes and give the bulls good momentum heading into a critical trading period next week that sees the USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports on Tuesday. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $97.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.45 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump delays Iran energy attack deadline by 10 days, claims U.S.-Iran are talking
--Pentagon mulling sending as many as 10,000 more U.S. troops to region: WSJ
--Iran continues drone and missile strikes across Middle East
--Oil rises as traders brace for longer war, European stocks slide, bond yields rise
--Iran says it turned back 3 vessels of different nationalities trying to transit Hormuz
-- Two Chinese container ships attempt Hormuz exit before U-turning
--Brace for $200 oil If war lasts until June, Macquarie warns
Cooler temps, windy in the Plains, Midwest… The National Weather Service today said the record-breaking heat that was gripping the U.S. heartland is abating as a cold front is moving southward across the southern Plains and the Ohio Valley. Northerly winds behind the front will bring cooler temperatures today for much of the Midwest into the Northeast. Gusty winds, some as high as 35-50 mph in states like Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico, and low relative humidity will be present. Red flag warnings, wind advisories, and high wind warnings are in effect throughout the region.
Trump says announcement on aid to farmers coming today… President Trump on Thursday said his administration will today announce actions to help U.S. farmers, as the White House prepares to host hundreds of farmers, ranchers and executives for an event highlighting the agricultural sector. The move comes as the administration is expected to release long-awaited biofuel blending quotas under the Renewable Fuel Standard, a policy closely watched by corn growers, ethanol producers and oil refiners that dictates how much renewable fuel must be mixed into the nation’s gasoline and diesel supply. Reuters reported the Trump administration will release its 2026-27 biofuel blending volume obligations this week, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The rule will not differ materially from volumes proposed by the EPA prior to the onset of the Iran war, the sources said.
China launches investigations into unfair U.S. trade practices… China started a pair of investigations into U.S. trade practices, retaliating against similar probes by the Trump administration as the superpowers stake out positions before an expected presidential summit in May. “The move, announced by the Ministry of Commerce on Friday, is a direct mirror of steps U.S. President Donald Trump took to revive his tariff agenda after the Supreme Court last month struck down some of his duties,” said a Bloomberg report. “China expresses its strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to these actions,” a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said in a statement, referring to the so-called Section 301 investigations initiated on March 11. The Chinese measures come days after the White House said Trump will travel to China in mid-May to meet with President Xi Jinping for a summit delayed by the U.S. conflict with Iran. The world’s two biggest economies have largely stabilized ties after a tariff tit-for-tat last year, although Beijing has signaled its opposition to fresh U.S. actions.
U.S. Senate passes measure to fund DHS… The U.S. Senate early today passed legislation to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, which must still pass the House of Representatives and be signed by President Trump. The bill marks an abrupt reversal for Republicans, who had blocked similar proposals backed by Democrats to partially fund the department for weeks, and comes after lengthy lines and waits at airport security checkpoints. Democrats are poised to walk away from the DHS shutdown debate without reforms to immigration enforcement policies they had sought, while Republicans face a high-stakes fight to fund their immigration agenda on their own via a subsequent partisan budget bill.
Another Fed official leans hawkish on U.S. monetary policy… Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr on Thursday said Fed policymakers are well positioned to hold U.S. interest rates steady due to the conflict in the Middle East and other factors complicating their ability to nudge inflation toward the annual 2% target. Barr noted that non-housing services inflation and core inflation are both elevated, and that the impact of tariffs on inflation may continue beyond this year.
Malaysian palm oil futures see late-week rally… Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a second straight session on Friday, hovering near MYR 4,600 per MT, supported by firmer edible oils on the Dalian exchange and a weaker ringgit. Strong export demand added momentum, with cargo surveyors reporting that March 1–25 shipments surged between 38% to 51% from February, reflecting robust post-Eid buying. Elevated crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions further lifted sentiment, boosting prospects for biofuel demand. However, futures are set to end the week slightly lower, down 0.2%, as earlier gains faded. The pullback was driven by expectations of weaker Indian demand, with March imports projected at 680,000 MT versus 847,689 MT in February. In Indonesia, authorities are accelerating the B50 biodiesel rollout while weighing higher export taxes for April. Meanwhile, caution lingers ahead of March PMI data in China, a key buyer, due next week, after factory activity slowed in February during the extended Lunar New Year holiday.
USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report shows slight expansion from year-ago… USDA on Thursday afternoon reported that as of March 1, there were 74.3 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, up slightly from March of 2025 but down 1% from Dec. 1, 2025, according to its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Other key findings in the report were: Of the 74.3 million hogs and pigs, 68.4 million were market hogs, while 5.89 million were kept for breeding. Between December 2025 and February 2026, 33.2 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, up 1% from the same time period one year earlier. From December 2025 through February 2026, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.90 pigs per litter. U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.86 million sows farrow between March and May 2026, and 2.90 million sows farrow between June and August 2026. Iowa hog producers accounted for the largest inventory among the states, at 24.7 million head. Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 9.30 million head. North Carolina was third with 7.60 million head.
Cattle futures bulls enjoying price uptrends… April live cattle on Thursday rose $0.675 to $235.10. May feeder cattle gained $1.70 to $351.75 and closed at a three-week high close. The cattle futures markets paused most of Thursday’s session, but then the chart-based bulls stepped up late to push prices higher. Fledgling price uptrends remain in place on the daily bar charts. Buying interest was limited most of Thursday amid keener trader/investor risk aversion in the general marketplace. A late-week drop in Choice-grade boxed beef prices also somewhat limited the upside in cattle futures. USDA at midday Thursday reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week, with steers averaging $234.76 and heifers averaging $234.00. The agency reported cash trading last week averaged $235.08.
Lean hog futures bears in technical control… April lean hog futures on Thursday fell $0.075 to $90.825 and closed at a nine-week low close. The hog futures market paused Thursday but bulls remain timid amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. The rally in the cash hog market has stalled out and prices are starting to dip. The latest CME lean hog index is down 6 cents at $91.65. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 18 cents at $91.46. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $69.44.