Good morning!
Grain futures narrowly mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, December corn was up 1/4 cent. January soybeans were 1/2 cent lower. December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were up 2 to 4 1/2 cents. The grain market bulls early today are working to stabilize prices after the sell-offs seen on Wednesday. Good follow-through selling pressure today would kill the price uptrend in December corn and put in jeopardy the uptrend in January soybeans. Winter wheat futures trading has turned sideways and choppy as the bulls have lost momentum late this week. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $60.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.14 percent.
Soggy, foggy weather over much of the Plains, central U.S today... The National Weather Service today said moisture streaming northward of the Gulf will produce heavy rain and thunderstorms over parts of the southern Plains today. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, heavy rain and thunderstorms will impact parts of the central Plains and the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, along with some fog. Low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will move eastward to southeastern Canada. The system will produce light rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes through late Thursday night. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today.
Big Midwest grain merchandiser files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy… Nationwide grain merchandiser and processor Hansen-Mueller Co. this week filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The firm, based in Omaha, has nine elevators across five states. It also operates port terminals in Minnesota, Texas, Wisconsin and Ohio. Ag Web reported that in October more than three dozen Nebraska farmers were owed a total of $2 million. At that time, Hansen-Mueller’s grain dealer license was suspended by the Nebraska Public Service Commission. After paying farmers $2.1 million, the Commission reinstated the company’s license on Nov. 4 and did not issue any civil penalties. The bankruptcy filing came two weeks later. “After careful consideration of all available strategic alternatives, the Board of Directors determined that a Court-supervised process is the most effective and efficient way to achieve an orderly sale of our assets,” said Josh Hansen, Chief Executive Officer of Hansen-Mueller Co. in the company press release. “We believe this path will maximize the value of the company’s assets for the benefit of our creditors, employees, and all stakeholders.”
Solid Nvidia corporate earnings rally global stock markets… Global stock markets and U.S. stock indexes posted solid gains overnight, following Nvidia Corp. on Wednesday afternoon delivering a surprisingly strong revenue forecast. The company also pushed back on the idea that the artificial intelligence industry is in a bubble, easing concerns that had spread across the tech sector. Nvidia sales will be about $65 billion in the January quarter, the chipmaker said in a statement on Wednesday. Analysts had estimated $62 billion on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has faced mounting concerns about an AI bubble. The outlook signals demand remains robust for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence accelerators, the pricey and powerful chips used to develop AI models. Nvidia has faced growing fears that the runaway spending on such equipment isn’t sustainable.
September U.S. employment report out today… The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its September monthly jobs report today at 7:30 a.m. CST. The marketplace expects a rise of 50,000 non-farm payroll jobs in the September data. The August jobs report showed a rise of just 22,000 non-farm jobs. The agency on Wednesday said it is cancelling its October jobs report due to lack of sufficient data collected. Some October jobs data will be rolled into a report to be published after the Fed’s December FOMC decision on Dec. 8, said the bureau, prompting traders to scale back expectations for a quarter-point Fed reduction at that time. Markets on Wednesday afternoon implied about a 30% chance of a Fed rate cut in early December.
FOMC minutes show divided Federal Reserve… Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the late-October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed many Fed officials believe it would likely be appropriate to keep U.S. interest rates steady for the remainder of 2025. “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year,” the minutes said. However, the minutes said “several participants” said another cut “could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected” before the next meeting. The minutes underscored the uncertainty around the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next month, given ongoing divisions in the committee over whether inflation or unemployment represents a greater threat to the U.S. economy.
U.S. military delegation met with Ukraine officials in Kyiv… A group of U.S. military officials met with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv Wednesday as part of a fresh bid by President Trump to rejuvenate peace talks with Russia, even as another U.S.-Russian proposal modeled on the Gaza ceasefire got a tepid reception from Ukraine’s supporters, Bloomberg reported. The delegation, led by Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll, will examine ways to force Russia to end the fighting, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Joining him were General Randy George, the Army chief of staff, and General Chris Donahue, the US Army commander for Europe. One of the people said Driscoll had already been planning to go to Ukraine and Trump enlisted him to see if he could come up with fresh ideas for a path toward peace. Driscoll plans to meet with Russian officials later, according to the person. The Pentagon declined to comment on details of the trip. Axios reported earlier that the Trump administration has been working up a 28-point plan in consultation with Russia, inspired by the ceasefire deal that Trump achieved in Gaza, Bloomberg reported. Reports of the meeting between U.S. military officials and Ukrainian officials surfaced Wednesday morning and helped to pressure wheat futures prices, on notions any Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could mean more wheat shipments coming out of the Black Sea.
China considering new stimulus for its struggling property sector… China is considering new measures to turn around its struggling property market, as concerns mount that a further weakening of the sector will threaten to destabilize its financial system, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. “Policymakers, including the housing ministry, are considering a slew of options, such as providing new homebuyers mortgage subsidies for the first time nationwide, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Other measures being floated include raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers and lowering home transaction costs, one of the people said. “The relaxation of fiscal policy is in line with our previous expectations, and reducing taxes and fees will moderately boost home buying activities,” said Jeff Zhang, a property equity analyst at Morningstar Inc. “We believe that the confidence of homebuyers still needs further stabilizing property prices to recover.”
Malaysian palm oil futures dip… Malaysian palm oil futures slid around 1.5% to below MYR 4,200 per MT Thursday, snapping a five-session advance amid weakness in rival oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Sentiment also weakened after the Malaysian Palm Oil Board set a lower crude palm oil reference price for December. In top consumer India, October palm oil imports fell to a five-month low as buyers shifted to soybean oil, pulling 2024/25 imports down 16% to a five-year low of 7.56 million MT. On the export front, early signs of slower shipments emerged, with cargo surveyor data showing Malaysian palm oil product exports for Nov. 1–15 down 10% to 15.5% from the prior month. Still, prices have risen 0.9% so far this week, marking a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by a weaker ringgit. Meanwhile, supply concerns grew from stricter land-seizure rules and a planned B50 biodiesel mandate next year in the world’s largest producer, Indonesia, which analysts warn could curb exports going forward.
Cattle futures bears re-emerge and show power… December live cattle futures on Wednesday fell $3.725 to $216.30 and hit a 4.5-month low. January feeder cattle lost $4.60 to $321.45. The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw heavy technical selling pressure kick in again Wednesday. Weakening cash cattle prices this week were also bearish for futures. Somewhat elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week limited speculator buying interest in the cattle futures. USDA Wednesday reported light cash cattle trading so far this week, with steers averaging $220.29 and heifers averaging $220.00. Last week’s USDA average cash cattle trading price was $225.06, down $3.64 from the week prior.
Short covering in lean hog futures… December lean hog futures on Wednesday rose 95 cents to $78.85. Lean hog futures market Wednesday saw short covering in a bear market. Steadily declining cash hog prices and weakening pork cutout values limited buying interest and will likely continue to do so. Lean hog futures’ discount to the cash market also worked in the hog futures bulls’ favor Wednesday. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 33 cents at $86.67. Today’s projected cash index price is down 40 cents to $86.27. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $76.55.