Good morning!
Grain futures weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was down 1 3/4 cents. January soybeans were 1 3/4 cents lower. March HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were down 4 to 4 3/4 cents, with SRW hitting a four-week low. The grain futures bulls have faded badly the past week. The near-term technical postures for the grain markets have also deteriorated, which have emboldened the chart-based speculators to start this holiday-shortened trading week. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $58.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.06 percent.
Rain, snow in Midwest, Plains… The National Weather Service today reported a frontal system reaching into the Pacific Northwest this morning will continue to push farther inland, bringing fairly widespread precipitation across the Pacific Northwest this morning, followed by high-elevation wet snow, heavy at times, across the northern Rockies together with blustery conditions. The associated upper trough is forecast to amplify and spawn an extended stretch of snow beginning near the Canadian border of Montana today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on Tuesday, and then into the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It appears that 3 to 6 inches of accumulation can be expected along this stretch of the northern Plains. From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, this system is forecast to intensify and expand in size as it tracks across the upper Midwest reaching into the upper Great Lakes. The threat of high winds has increased across the northern Plains on Tuesday, with the threat expanding across the upper Midwest Wednesday morning. The blustery conditions will be in conjunction with the accumulating snow just to the northern of the clipper center. Meantime, a low-pressure system developing over the south-central Plains will be the impetus for a round of heavy rain together with severe weather threats across the Mid-South through the next couple of days. The low-pressure system will track northeast into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night.Many areas of the eastern U.S. from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic will receive rainfall from this system on Tuesday. From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
USDA cattle-on-feed report leans price-friendly… Cattle futures traders Friday afternoon got their first USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report since September 19. The agency Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024, which was very close to market expectations. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024 and less than traders expected. Net placements were 1.99 million head. Placements were the lowest for October since the series began in 1996. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 515,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 420,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 445,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 384,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 195,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.70 million head, 8 percent below the same time in 2024 and close to market expectations. Other disappearance totaled 54,000 head during October, 2 percent below 2024.
Tyson shuts down Lexington, Nebraska beef operations, pares back Amarillo, Texas shifts… Tyson Foods Inc. on Friday said it is ending operations at a beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska and cutting a shift at an Amarillo, Texas facility as the meat producer loses millions of dollars amid the smallest U.S. cattle herd in decades. “Consumers are paying record-high prices for beef as packers are forced to pay up to buy a shrinking amount of cattle. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has moved to boost imports from countries, including Brazil and Argentina, to help make up a domestic shortfall, but the measures have yet to bring down retail prices,” said a Bloomberg report. Tyson earlier this month said it was set to lose as much as $600 million in its beef segment in fiscal 2026, after losing $720 million over the past two years. The company on Friday said it was seeking to “right-size its beef business” by ending operations in Lexington, Nebraska, and converting the plant in Amarillo, Texas, to a single shift. About 3,200 workers will be impacted in Lexington and 1,700 in Amarillo, Tyson said and as reported by Bloomberg. One of Tyson’s biggest slaughter plants, the facility in Lexington can slaughter nearly 5,000 head of cattle per day. “To meet customer demand, production will be increased at other company beef facilities, optimizing volumes across our network,” Tyson said in the statement.
U.S. Cattlemen’s Association urges Trump to reconsider importing Argentine beef… The USCA wrote to President Trump late last week: “We recognize the global challenges at play in economic policy and international trade. However, U.S. cattlemen—who have weathered decades of adversity—should not be made the sacrifice for larger geopolitical aims. Expanding beef imports from Argentina would risk the very foundation of U.S. cattle production and the heart of rural America. U.S. producers will lose in any deal with Argentina. Today’s beef prices are not the byproduct of runaway inflation or market manipulation—they are the result of years of industry contraction, a 75-year low in the national cow herd, and steep increases in ranchers’ input costs. For the first time in years, cattle producers are finally earning prices that reflect actual costs of production—a long-overdue correction, not an unintended sign of distress.” The letter continued: “In addition, U.S. beef remains one of the safest, highest-quality proteins—and best values—available to American families. Even with recent increases, the time required for an average American to afford a pound of ground beef is unchanged since the 1980s: about 12 minutes of work, a benchmark of affordability few foods can claim. Dollar for dollar, nothing surpasses U.S. beef for nutrition, safety, or consumer trust; today’s families can choose quality beef for about the price of a $5 daily latte. In times of economic downturn, U.S. consumers have proven beef demand is inelastic – it stands the test of time and wallets. In fact, current U.S. beef demand is at a 40-year high, reflecting the enduring place of beef at the center of the American table.”
U.S. pressing Ukraine to accept peace deal; some progress made on Sunday… U.S. officials are pushing Ukraine to accept the terms of a 28-point proposal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine as the basis for negotiations, according to two people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. U.S. officials, including Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steven Witkoff, met with their Ukrainian counterparts in Geneva Sunday to discuss the U.S. plan as President Trump continues to push for a quick deal. The discussions Sunday demonstrated significant progress in reconciling positions and clearly identifying next steps, Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, said in a post on Telegram and as reported by Bloomberg. Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline to secure Ukraine’s support for the plan isn’t set in stone and could drift into the following week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after the meeting in Switzerland. Any agreement would require sign-off by Zelenskiy, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meantime, Ukrainian officials met with European national security advisers Sunday. The U.S. is currently objecting to meeting the Ukrainians and Europeans together, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The U.S. also asked Ukraine to attest that it provided input into the proposals after it emerged that Moscow contributed heavily to the plan, one of the people said. Under the terms proposed by the U.S., Ukraine would have to withdraw troops from parts of the eastern Donbas region that Russia has failed to fully occupy during its almost four-year full-scale invasion. The area would become a neutral, demilitarized buffer zone internationally recognized as Russian.
USDA launches unified New World Screwworm website… USDA Friday said it is launching a new, unified New World screwworm (NWS) website, screwworm.gov. “This dynamic new site centralizes NWS information available across the federal government and reflects our whole-of-government effort to fight this pest through implementation of Secretary Rollins’ comprehensive five-pronged plan, said a USDA press release. “Screwworm.gov has targeted resources for a wide range of stakeholders including livestock producers, veterinarians, animal health officials, wildlife professionals, healthcare providers, pet owners, researchers, drug manufacturers, and the general public. It also has the latest USDA-verified information on cases and response activities in Mexico and U.S. preparedness efforts,” said USDA.
China corn prices on the rise after heavy rains… Corn prices in China rose to the highest in more than two months as buyers rushed to secure good-quality supplies after heavy rains, Bloomberg reported. Corn futures rose more than 1% in Dalian to hit the highest since September. Feed producers and hog producers were seeking new-harvest supplies from the northeast, China’s top producer, after rain in the north, a separate region, damaged crops, according to Guolian Futures. Corn is one of the three most significant crops in China, but while the central government has been predicting record output, there’s underlying concern about the impact from recent extreme weather. Epic rains in northern China, which accounts for at least 30% of total production, have disrupted the harvest, said Bloomberg.
Trump administration to make announcement on U.S. healthcare this week… U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday the Trump administration is working on bringing down U.S. health-care costs and an announcement to address the issue is planned for this week. “We believe health care’s going to come down,” Bessent said Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press in response to a question about Vice President JD Vance asking Americans for “a little bit of patience” as the White House works out a plan to address the cost of living. “We will see an announcement this coming week on that,” Bessent said. Trump said last week he hopes to secure a plan by Jan. 30 to address an impending surge in health insurance premiums caused by subsidies that expire at the end of this year.
U.S., EU officials meet on trade… The European Union said no deal was expected today to lower tariffs on steel and other products during talks with senior U.S. trade officials. “Today it’s not about negotiations, it’s about the stock-taking exercise,” EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic told reporters before the bloc’s trade ministers met with senior U.S. officials and as reported by Bloomberg. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are in Brussels for the first time since the EU and U.S. reached a trade agreement in July. The deal set a 15% U.S. tariff on many EU goods, while the EU pledged to erase tariffs on U.S. industrial products as well as some agriculture and food items. The two sides also vowed to keep working to lower other tariffs.
Malaysian palm oil futures rise… Malaysian palm oil futures rose to around MYR 4,080 per MT on Monday, reversing sharp losses from the previous two sessions as traders engaged in bargain hunting after prices sank to a 4-1/2-month low last week. Firmer rival oils on the Chicago exchange also lifted sentiment, amid reports of increased Chinese buying from the U.S. In top buyer India, palm oil imports in the new marketing year are expected to rebound by about 20% as competitive prices help the tropical oil regain market share. Further ahead, Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, plans to roll out B50 in H2 2026, a move that could tighten global supply. The domestic industry group expects prices could approach MYR 5,000, with Indonesia’s exports likely falling to 26 million MT in 2026, from an estimated 31 million MT this year. Still, gains were limited by weakening export momentum, with cargo surveyors estimating Malaysian shipments for November 1–20 fell 14.1% to 20.5% from the prior month.
Cattle, hog futures markets bears rule the roost… December live cattle futures Friday hit a 4.5-month low and for the week lost $4.70 a hundredweight. January feeder cattle futures also notched a 4.5-month low and on the week fell $6.325. December lean hog futures last week were down 70 cents. Live and feeder cattle futures, and lean hog futures markets are all in near-term price downtrends on their daily bar charts, which suggest the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to lower for at least the time being. However, the livestock futures bulls can correctly argue their markets have taken a beating lately and the bears may now be exhausted. The high-range closes in live and feeder cattle futures markets on Friday begin to suggest such to be the case.