Good morning!
Grain futures prices weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 3 cents and May soybeans down 1 cent. May SRW and HRW wheat futures were 5 to 6 cents lower. Corn and soybean futures saw corrective price pullbacks from Friday’s gains, while the winter wheat futures markets saw follow-through selling pressure. Corn, beans and winter wheat futures are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts. However, the uptrends in winter wheat markets see their price uptrends in some jeopardy. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, with crude oil prices firmer and trading around $64.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.03 percent and at a 2.5-month low.
Winter weather returning to the Midwest, Plains later this week … The National Weather Service today reported that over the Plains into the Midwest there are chances for rain and snow this evening. On Wednesday, the low-pressure system will accumulate higher amounts of mixed precipitation over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes as it continues to move eastward into Mississippi/Ohio Valley. There will be chances for rain and high-elevation snow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Thursday. Above-normal temperatures will continue across portions of the Plains into the East Coast with temperatures between 15-30 degrees above normal through Wednesday, but near normal to slightly below normal temperatures start to push into parts of the Plains by Thursday. Across western U.S., temperatures will trend cooler with 10-25 degrees below normal. Over into the Northern Rockies/Plains, temperatures start to enter the teens with some areas seeing single digits on Wednesday into Thursday.
U.S., Iran hold talks in Geneva… Iran and the U.S. met for a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Switzerland today as they seek to avoid renewed conflict in the Middle East following last year’s U.S. attacks on the Islamic Republic. The talks are being mediated by Oman. “Iranian officials have expressed willingness to discuss their nuclear-enrichment activities but have tied any concessions to the potential easing of American sanctions. Meanwhile, both sides have increased their military presence in the region. The U.S. is deploying a second aircraft carrier to the region amid warnings of a possible strike on Iran if talks — which could drag on for weeks — fail to produce a compromise, Bloomberg reported. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps held drills around the strategic Strait of Hormuz on Monday that were focused on delivering a “decisive” response to security threats. The U.S. team is led by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Trump said on Monday that Iran wants to make a deal and that he’ll be indirectly involved in the discussions.
Russian grain port sees heavy drone attacks… Russia’s Black Sea coastal region came under heavy drone attack during the weekend, with damage reported to infrastructure at the Taman seaport and fuel tanks, Bloomberg said in a report. The strikes come as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are expected to gather again in Geneva today for peace talks. The heaviest damage was reported in the settlement of Volna in the Temryuk district, where the Taman port is located. A fuel storage tank, warehouse facilities and port terminals were struck, according to the governor. Taman is located on a peninsula across the Kerch Strait from Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. The facility, which was previously attacked in December, handles oil, liquefied petroleum gas, grains, fertilizers and other cargo, said Bloomberg. According to Russia’s Interfax news agency, the Taman Grain Terminal Complex has a capacity of 5.5 million MT per annum and one-time storage capacity of 192,000 tons.
U.S., China officials talk in Munich, ahead of Trump-Xi summit meeting… Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Munich late last week, as the two countries prepare for a planned visit by President Trump to Beijing in April. Wang called for 2026 to be a year in which China and the U.S. move toward mutual respect, and the two sides agreed to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in various fields. The meeting was seen as a way to keep momentum moving forward ahead of the U.S.-China summit in April.
U.S. natural gas prices drop to four-month low on warmer weather… U.S. natural gas prices tumbled to a four-month low as forecasts for warmer weather weighed on the outlook for heating demand. “ Vast parts of the country, especially the central and southern US, are expected to see higher-than-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, according to a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,” Bloomberg reported. “U.S. natural gas prices have whipsawed wildly since the start of the year, with the front-month futures contract reaching a three-year high last month after a winter storm raised demand and disrupted some supplies. Since then, futures have pulled back, in part due to the outlook for warmer weather,” said the report.
Smithfield Foods to build new pork facility in Sioux Falls, S.D. … Smithfield Foods, Inc. on Monday announced it will build a new state-of-the-art packaged meats and fresh pork processing facility in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The new facility will replace Smithfield’s existing plant, which has been in existence for more than 100 years. The company currently employs 3,200 people in Sioux Falls, according to a Smithfield news release. Smithfield’s preliminary cost estimate of the proposed facility is up to $1.3 billion over the next three years. “The proposed combined fresh pork and packaged meats facility will be the most modern of its kind in the U.S., with highly efficient process flow, advanced automation technology and a streamlined design. The new, best-in-class facility will deliver significant efficiency gains to Smithfield’s fresh pork and high-value packaged meats operations,” the company said.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices lower Monday… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,050 per MT on Monday, reversing modest gains from the prior session amid a stronger ringgit and softer exports. The market was closed Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday and trading will resume Thursday. Cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments for February 1–15 fell between 11.2% and 14.9% month-on-month, reinforcing concerns over near-term demand. Prices held around their lowest levels in four weeks, with trading subdued ahead of the Lunar New Year break. Some supportive factors emerged. India, the top buyer, boosted palm oil imports by 51% mom in January to a four-month high after December’s sharp drop. Meanwhile, monthly data from the industry regulator showed inventories fell 7.7%, and production dropped 13.8% in January, suggesting a tighter supply that could help cushion further downside.
Cattle futures see mild profit-taking; losses limited by steady-firmer cash trade… April live cattle futures on Friday fell 2 1/2 cents to $240.625 and for the week rose $3.375. March feeder cattle futures gained 42 1/2 cents to $366.15 and for the week were down $1.275. The cattle futures markets Friday saw mild profit-taking pressure and position evening heading into the three-day U.S. holiday weekend. Cash cattle trading as of midday Friday was still very light, with USDA reporting steers averaging $241.00 and heifers averaging $243.00. USDA last Monday reported average cash cattle for the week prior was $241.31.
Lean hog futures bulls need to right the ship… April lean hog futures last Friday fell 55 cents to $91.275, hit a four-week low and for the week lost $6.675. The lean hog futures market had a dreadful week last week, highlighted by strong technical selling from the chart-based speculators, as prices saw a downside breakout from a bearish broadening pattern on the daily bar chart. Friday’s technically bearish weekly low close in April hogs suggests there will be some follow-through selling pressure when trading resumes today. The latest CME lean hog index is up 37 cents to $86.89. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 4 cents to $86.93. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $65.41.