Good morning!
Grain prices steady-slightly down overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1/4 cent, November soybeans down 1 cent and December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets steady to 3/4 cent higher. The corn and soybean bulls had one foot in the grave early Wednesday but prices have since rebounded smartly late this week to begin to suggest near-term market bottoms may be in place. Gains in soybean meal futures have been especially impressive late this week. Technically bullish weekly high closes in corn and soybean futures today would better suggest near-term lows are in place and that prices can trend at least sideways, if not sideways to higher, in the near term. The winter wheat futures markets have seen some tepid short covering late this week, after hitting contract lows Wednesday. Look for the wheat futures markets to take the lead from corn and soybeans in the near term. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $60.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.092 percent.
Record high temperatures likely in Northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes... The National Weather Service today reports that east of the Rocky Mountains an existing upper ridge will promote above average to well above average temperatures for most areas. Record high afternoon temperatures and record high morning low temperatures are likely to stretch from the Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes over the next two days. Across these areas, high temperatures Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the mid-80s to lower 90s, ranging from 15 to 30 degrees above average. This late-season heat wave will produce moderate to major heat risk across parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, western Wisconsin, and into northern Illinois. Relief from this heat will begin late this weekend as a strong front pushes eastward across the north-central U.S.
Day 3 of U.S. government shutdown and no signs of progress to end it… Democrats are standing firm in the face of President Trump’s threats to fire thousands of federal workers, with the two sides locked in a standoff that raises the prospects of lengthy furloughs and a prolonged disruption in U.S. government services. “The leaders of both parties are sticking to their talking points as the first shutdown in nearly seven years enters its third day. Lower-level negotiations have failed to strike a deal and another Senate vote Friday on a House-passed temporary spending bill is expected to fail,” said a Bloomberg report. The Senate is unlikely to hold votes over the weekend, almost certainly pushing the shutdown into next week as the two parties blame the other for the failure to reach an accord.
U.S. government will provide financial support to soybean farmers… U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday the federal government will support American farmers amid China’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans and that an announcement would be made next Tuesday. “American farmers overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election,” Bessent said, adding he met with Trump and Ag Secretary Rollins in the Oval Office Wednesday to discuss a strategy to help U.S. farmers, especially soybean farmers. The Wall Street Journal reported the administration is considering providing $10 billion or more in aid to U.S. farmers as the agriculture sector has warned of the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs.
Crude oil price slide pauses after major fire at southern California refinery… A large blaze broke out after an explosion at a Chevron Corp. refinery in Los Angeles County, according to CBS News and reported by Bloomberg. Firefighters responded after multiple reports of an explosion at the El Segundo operation, south of Los Angeles airport, on Thursday evening.According to the company website, the El Segundo refinery, built in 1911, supplies 20% of all motor vehicle fuels and 40% of the jet fuel consumed in southern California. Crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading, after slumping to a four-month low of $60.40 in Nymex futures on Thursday.
U.N.’s global meat price index hits record high… Global meat prices hit a fresh record high in September — in the longest run of monthly gains since 2021 — as shrinking U.S. cattle herds are unable to keep up with strong demand for beef. An index tracking meat-commodity costs rose 0.7% for an eighth straight monthly increase, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Friday. The rally has been largely driven by rising beef prices — with the U.S. cattle herd reaching the smallest in decades, higher prices in top exporter Brazil, and worries over the deadly New World Screwworm pest in Mexico. In the U.S., “limited domestic supplies and favorable price differentials continued to encourage beef imports, especially from Australia where prices rose,” the FAO said in its report. “Brazilian bovine prices increased as well, underpinned by robust global demand, offsetting reduced access to the U.S. following the imposition of higher tariffs.”
Malaysian palm oil futures extend rally… Malaysian palm oil futures on Friday were above MYR 4,450 per MT, extending gains for the third session to reach a two-week peak amid a weaker ringgit and a modest rise in crude oil prices. The bullish momentum is set to deliver the first weekly advance in three, up about 1.9% so far, boosted by higher export signs, with cargo surveyors noting September shipments of Malaysian palm oil products rose 7.3–9.6% from a month earlier. Forecasts of lower year-end stocks of 1.7 million MT from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board also lifted risk appetite, amid seasonal production dips and stronger festive demand. In top buyer India, edible oil imports may hit a record 17.1 million MT in 2025/26, even after authorities raised base import prices for all vegetable oils to reflect higher global benchmarks.
Cattle futures market bulls are fading… The live and feeder cattle futures markets Thursday saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term traders. Big drops in boxed beef prices also pressured futures. More active cash cattle trading was reported by USDA at midday Thursday. Steers were averaging $230.08 and heifers $230.47. That’s down from last week’s USDA reported cash cattle trading average of $232.65. The live and feeder cattle futures bulls have also faded, technically, recently to suggest major market tops are in place. There are very strong chart resistance levels that lie above present prices.
Lean hog futures hit five-week low… December lean hogs on Thursday saw more profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculative traders and prices hit a five-week low. Thursday marked the fourth straight session of price losses in December hogs, which suggests a market top is in place. Bulls are hoping lean hog futures’ discounts to the cash hog index will help to stop the bleeding. Cash and fresh pork fundamentals have been weakening. The latest CME lean hog index is down 47 cents at $104.26. Today’s projected cash hog index is down another 56 cents at $103.70. Thursday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $101.82.