Good morning!
Grain futures sell off after early overnight gains… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 5 cents. May soybeans were 6 cents lower as a bear flag pattern has now formed on the daily bar chart. May soybean meal was down $1.40. May bean oil was 102 points lower. May SRW wheat was down 8 3/4 cents and May HRW wheat was 11 1/2 cents lower. Grain markets were posting good overnight gains until the post on social media around 6:00 a.m. CDT from President Trump that he has instructed the U.S. military to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants. Crude oil prices dropped sharply on the news, with May Nymex crude trading around $89.00 a barrel. The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--President Trump orders the Pentagon to postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, according to a Truth Social post. U.S. and Iran have had very good and productive conversations over the past two days, he said.
--Crude oil prices drop by over 10% on apparent de-escalation of U.S. military action
--Israel hits Tehran again, while Iran carries out fresh strikes across Gulf
--More than 40 energy assets across Middle East damaged since the conflict began, IEA says
-- Global stock markets rebound, bond prices rally on Trump social media post
--Gold, silver prices plunge to lowest levels this year but recover some losses on Trump news
--Modi seeks to calm India as Iran war causes acute gas shortage
Weekend heat wave in Plains, Midwest “nothing short of amazing”… World Weather Inc. said Sunday evening in a special report that a heatwave in the western United States late last week through Saturday “was nothing short of amazing. Hundreds of record temperatures were noted Friday and Saturday. Some of the records were for the date and others were set for the warmest temperatures ever recorded in the month of March.” The heat was most significant in the central Plains and areas southwest into the desert areas of North America. However, hard red winter wheat and livestock in the Plains were most impacted. Temperatures cooled down Sunday and additional cooling is expected today. However, a new round of hot weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday.Saturday was, by far, the hottest day with highs in the 90s to 103 degrees occurring from the central through the southwestern Plains. “The areas impacted were the very same that experienced low temperatures in the single digits, teens and 20s March 14-16. Very few times in recorded history has there been such a wild swing in temperatures over such a short period of time. The stress was greatest on livestock, although some of the wheat crop likely suffered as well because of damage already resulting from previous bouts of extreme cold and snow-free conditions earlier in the
winter and due to drought and dryness more recently,” said World Weather.
Here’s how Goldman sees crude oil prices playing out this year… Goldman Sachs has raised its crude oil price forecasts for 2026 due to the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the largest-ever supply shock for the global crude market. The firm expects Brent crude oil prices to average $85.00 a barrel in 2026 and West Texas Intermediate to average $79.00 a barrel, up from earlier forecasts of $77.00 and $72.00, respectively. Goldman said the revisions are based on an assumption that oil flows through Hormuz would remain at only 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a one-month recovery, resulting in cumulative losses of just over 800 million barrels.
U.S. dollar remains strong as American economy better insulated from war… The U.S. dollar advanced today and traders are betting on further appreciation for the greenback as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week and the U.S. exchanged threats with Iran. “Surging energy prices support the oil-exporting U.S. economy and investors are rushing to safe-haven assets. The greenback is just shy of a fresh year-to-date high and options traders see more gains, with one-month sentiment the most bullish since 2022,” said a Bloomberg report. The currency climbed versus its Group-of-10 peers after President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or have its power plants bombed. Tehran countered that it would close the Strait of Hormuz “completely,” and higher oil prices supported the greenback once again. “In real terms, the U.S. economy is still looking better insulated against the energy shock, which we expect to support the dollar over coming weeks,” said Jens Naervig Pedersen, a senior analyst at Danske Bank and as reported by Bloomberg. Hedge funds that bought the dollar on Friday are coming back now for more, according to currency traders familiar with the transactions.
Mexico says technical talks on USMCA going well so far… Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said over the weekend the start of technical talks with the U.S. to review the North American free trade agreement is “good news.” The talks have focused exclusively on the U.S.-Mexico trade, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s office saying the two sides will review options for increasing U.S. and Mexican production and manufacturing employment. Ebrard expects Ottawa to join the talks soon and defended the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, saying it has delivered significant results, including economic growth and employment. The talks began even as President Trump has suggested abandoning the three-nation framework for bilateral deals. A key deadline looms in July 2026, when all three governments must confirm in writing whether to extend the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, known as USMCA, for a new 16-year term.
China seeks balanced trade despite its growing exports... Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged to address worries that trade partners have about China’s large surplus, and to promote the sound and balanced development of trade. He said China will further widen market access for the services sector and increase imports of certain products to provide more business opportunities for foreign companies. Authorities in China have taken some steps to address trade tensions, and the People’s Bank of China Governor defended the nation’s current account surplus, saying it has underpinned global economic growth and financial stability. “We take our trading partners’ concerns seriously and we are ready to work with all parties to promote the sound and balanced development of trade,” Li said in a keynote speech at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Sunday and as reported by Bloomberg. “We will also further widen market access for the services sector, and increase imports of medical and health care products, digital technologies and low carbon services to provide more business opportunities for foreign companies,” he added. China racked up a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion last year and exports continued to soar in the first two months of this year, exacerbating worry in many countries about the future of their own industries.
USDA Secretary Rollins to visit western Nebraska today to view wildfire damage… U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins will conduct an aerial tour of the Morrill County Fire on today, accompanied by Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen, U.S. Senator Pete Ricketts, U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, Congressman Adrian Smith, and USDA Under Secretary Richard Fordyce, according to a USDA press release. Following the tour, Rollins will join firefighters, emergency responders, and affected ranchers and producers for a press briefing.
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Malaysian palm oil futures were closed for a holiday today.
USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report not as bullish… USDA Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on March 1. The inventory was slightly below that of March 1, 2025. However, placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.61 million head, 4 percent above 2025. Traders expected a steady number, to slight rise, in placements in this report. Net placements were 1.56 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 305,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 280,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 445,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 396,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 130,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 55,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.52 million head, 7 percent below 2025 and close to trader expectations. Marketings were the second-lowest for February since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 50,000 head during February, 17 percent below 2025.
Cattle futures bulls once again show resilience… April live cattle futures on Friday rose $0.775 to $234.05 and for the week up $4.00. May feeder cattle futures gained $2.95 to $346.375 and for the week up $7.20. The live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets bulls had a decent week, which gives them some momentum heading into trading early this week. Traders today will begin to digest last Friday’s USDA cattle-on-feed report, which was a bit less bullish than in past reports. (See item just above.) Workers remain on strike at the JBS-owned meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, which still has the cattle market bulls uneasy. More active cash cattle was reported by USDA at midday Friday, with the agency saying steer prices averaged $234.05 and heifer prices averaged $234.41. USDA last Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $234.83—down $5.11 from the week prior
Lean hog futures charts deteriorating… April lean hog futures on Friday fell $0.775 to $91.275, hit a nine-week low and for the week were down $2.175. The lean hog futures market saw another technically bearish weekly low close Friday, which sets the stage for follow-through selling pressure from the chart-based speculators early this week. Still shaky trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace last week kept the hog futures bulls very timid amid the ongoing Middle East war. Such may be the case again this week. The latest CME lean hog index is up 11 cents to $92.04. Today’s projected cash index price is down 9 cents to $91.95. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $69.73.