Good morning!
Grain futures higher overnight, led by wheat… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 3/4 cents. January soybeans were 4 cents higher and hit a 16-month high. December SRW and HRW wheat futures markets were up 4 to 7 1/2 cents and hit a three-month high in SRW and a 2.5-month high in HRW. The grains got a boost overnight on the weekend news China wants to buy U.S. wheat. (See item below.) Also, the technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes in soybean, soybean meal, SRW wheat and HRW wheat futures markets Friday have the chart-based bulls fired up to continue to be buyers early this week. Technicals remain fully bullish for beans and meal, but the Relative Strength Index is flashing very overbought conditions in both markets at present. Don’t be surprised to see some corrective selling pressure at some point this week. The technical posture for corn has also turned near-term bullish recently. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $61.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.09 percent.
Warm and mostly dry in central U.S. this week… Above to well-above average temperatures will occur across much of the U.S. this week, including the central U.S. Dry weather is expected across the High Plains/Plains.Any precipitation for the Great Lakes and east should be modest in amounts. Downslope flow in the High Plains also promises breezy conditions early this week. The southern High Plains could see conditions favorable for fire weather during the heating of the day today.On Tuesday, portions of the High Plains continue have some potential for wildfire risk due to the continued dry air mass and breezy conditions. Record high temperatures are possible for portions of the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas.
China wants to buy U.S. wheat… China is seeking to buy U.S. wheat in what would be the first purchase in more than a year, following last week’s trade truce between the two nations, Bloomberg reported. A major grains importer in China made inquiries over the weekend for U.S. wheat cargoes loading from December to February, according to people familiar with matter, who asked not to be named as they aren’t authorized to speak to media. China hasn’t bought any U.S. wheat since early October of last year, according to USDA data, and the inquiries come after the Asian nation resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans last week. China will suspend all levies announced since March 4 on U.S. agricultural products, according to a White House fact sheet released over the weekend. The fact sheet is the most detailed account yet regarding the U.S.-China trade truce made during the summit meeting between Presidents Trump Xi Jinping last week. The apparent renewed interest in U.S. wheat comes as China’s overall imports of wheat have fallen to less than a third in the first nine months of this year from the same period in 2024 as Beijing moved to bolster domestic prices due to sluggish demand and ample supply.
USDA will release some reports in November… As the U.S. government shutdown is in its 34th day, which ties a record for the longest ever, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on Friday announced the following data releases, as the U.S. government shutdown continues:
—Milk Production – November 10, 2025 (previously scheduled for October 22, 2025)
—Crop Production – November 14, 2025 (previously scheduled for November 10, 2025)
—Cattle on Feed – November 21, 2025 (as previously scheduled)
—Milk Production – November 21, 2025 (as previously scheduled)
—The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production release on November 14th.
U.S. suspends port fees on China vessels… The U.S. is expected to suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting next week, Bloomberg reports, as the two countries deescalate a maritime contest that had become a sticking point in the trade war. From Nov. 10, the U.S. will pause measures designed to combat China’s shipping dominance, the White House said in a fact sheet. Meanwhile, Beijing said it would suspend the countermeasures it imposed in retaliation. During the one-year suspension, the U.S. will negotiate with China over the findings of its probe into China’s lead in maritime industries, according to the fact sheet. The U.S. will also pursue shipbuilding opportunities with South Korea and Japan, two countries often seen as a counterweight to Chinese ships.
OPEC+ makes modest increase in crude oil output but then will pause... OPEC-plus will pause its collective crude oil output increases during the first quarter of 2026 after making another modest hike next month as the group balances its push for market share against signs of an emerging surplus, Bloomberg reported. “The pause from January to March reflects an expectation for a seasonal slowdown and comes during a period of uncertainty for oil traders due to sanctions on Russia and a potential glut. The decision to pause output increases is seen as a prudent one given the supply picture uncertainty for the first quarter, with OPEC+ taking a break from adding barrels for the first time since they began restoring halted supplies in April,” said the Bloomberg report.
Malaysian palm oil futures see sharp losses… Malaysian palm oil futures plunged around 1.5% to below MYR 4,200 per MT, extending losses since mid-October to score a 12-week low. The steep drop followed weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian exchange, while sentiment was further pressured by concerns over global demand and uncertain weather that could affect output in early 2026. In the near term, demand prospects dimmed as winter approaches, when consumption typically slows in key buyers such as India and China. Still, cargo survey data showed exports of Malaysian palm oil products rose between 4.3% and 5.2% in October, though traders expect momentum to ease in the months ahead. Adding to the bearish tone, private survey data pointed to a slowdown in factory activity in October. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s statistics agency said the country exported 17.58 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in January–September, up 11.6% from a year earlier, underscoring abundant global supply.
Cattle futures bulls not out of the woods yet… The live and feeder cattle futures markets on Friday saw technical selling pressure to end the trading week. Bearish pennant patterns have formed on the daily bar charts for December live cattle and January feeder cattle futures. Still, prices are well up from their weekly spike lows, which begins to suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Active cash cattle trading started early last week. USDA at midday Friday reported steers and heifers fetched an average price of $230.02. That compares to the prior week’s average cash cattle trade at $237.89.
Bearish lean hog futures charts keeping bulls timid… The lean hog futures market remains trapped in a price downtrend and therefore the chart-based speculators will try to maintain control of the narrative this week. After their steep price downdrafts, the cattle futures markets appear to have stabilized, which is also a positive for hog futures. Still, deteriorating cash hog prices will continue to limit buying interest in lean hog futures. Lean hog futures’ present discounts to the cash index may somewhat limit selling interest in hog futures this week. The latest CME lean hog index fell 33 cents to $91.53. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 34 cents to $91.19. The national direct five-day rolling average cash price Friday was $87.94.