Growing worries over rising input costs dented farmer sentiment in April, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed on Tuesday, falling to 121 from 127 in March.
“Concerns about input costs remained high, and a higher percentage of respondents indicated that input availability is a major concern, likely driven by the uncertainty the Iran conflict has caused in fertilizer markets,” wrote economists Michael Langmeier and Joana Colussi of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The percentage of respondents who listed high input costs as their biggest concern remained at 46% this month, while the percentage who listed input availability as their biggest worry increased from 11% to 14%.
The April survey included questions about the expected impact of the Iran conflict on net farm income and corn breakeven prices in 2026:
- Approximately two-thirds of respondents expected net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the war, which began in late February and has sent natural gas and fertilizer prices soaring worldwide.
- Among respondents who planted corn in 2025, approximately one-half expected corn breakeven prices to increase by up to 6%, 14% expected breakeven prices to increase 6% to 9%, and 37% expected breakeven prices to increase 10% or more.
The survey also showed a decline in the percentage of respondents who view the country on the right track. It found 57% of respondents described the U.S. as headed in the “right direction” fell to 57% from 65% in March; 43% described the country as on the “wrong track”, up from 35% in March. The “right direction” response had hit 75% in December.
Among other key findings:
- The Current Conditions Index fell by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index decreased by 4 points.
- The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 9 points to 44, its lowest level since October 2024, indicating a decline in willingness to make large investments.
- The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index decreased from 125 to 121, and the long-term index decreased from 159 in March to 155 in April. Alternative investments, interest rates, and inflation were cited as the three factors having the greatest influence on farmland values.
- There continues to be a large disparity in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 31% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 69% expected good times for livestock producers.
Also see: Is U.S. agriculture facing a typical cycle or a ‘geopolitical reset’?