GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw weakness early in the overnight session. Corn saw persistent selling pressure, while wheat saw relative strength this morning and was trading higher into the break. Outside markets are relatively quiet this morning as equity futures, front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are all trading near unchanged.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop in 74% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. The poor to very poor rating rose 1 point on the week to 6%. USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from last week. The poor to very poor rating gained 2 points to 7%. The agency rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 52% good to excellent, down 2 points from last week. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.7 points to 385.1, remaining over10 points above this time last year for consecutive weeks now. The soybean crop improved .7 of a point, 1 point above this time last year. The spring wheat rating decreased 7.2 points, comparable to the rating received back on July 7th this year. Full details can be found here.
President Trump’s efforts to target China through its trading partners across global supply chains threatens to erode China’s economic growth and most of its exports to the U.S., according to Bloomberg Economics. “China has increasingly relied on third countries for the manufacturing of final products or components, a trend that accelerated following Trump’s first trade war and his imposition of higher restrictions on the world’s second-largest economy.” China’s share of total value-added manufacturing of goods destined for the U.S through other countries rose to 22% in 2023 from 14% in 2017. If the U.S. is successful in targeting shipments via higher levies or supply chain requirements, it would threaten 70% of China’s exports to the U.S. and more than 2.1% of China’s gross domestic product, according to the Bloomberg report.
Russia has trimmed its forecast for the 2025 wheat harvest and 2025-26 wheat exports, Agriculture minister Oksana Lut said in a government meeting on Tuesday. Lut said the wheat harvest is now estimated to be 88-90 MMT, down from the previous forecast of 90 MMT. Exports are now expected to total 43-44 MMT, down from 45 MMT. Weather challenges are weighing on the supply, with different areas of the country experiencing both drought and flooding.
CORN: December corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Tentative support comes in at $4.15 on continued weakness. Bulls are looking to challenge resistance at $4.21 1/2 on a bounce, which is reinforced by resistance at $4.25.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw modest followthrough selling overnight. Overnight losses were limited by support at $10.22 3/4, the 10-day moving average. Resistance stands at $10.25 on a bounce, with additional strength looking to overcome the 100-day moving average at $10.30 3/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures pushed lower overnight but have since rebounded. Bulls are looking to topple initial resistance at $5.64 1/2, the 10-day moving average, before challenging yesterday’s high of $5.70. Support comes in at $5.57 1/2 then $5.53 1/2 on a reversal back lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Futures across the curve are trading at contract highs and the recent push higher in cash cattle prices is fueling gains. Last week’s cash average ticked up 57 cents from the previous week to $237.78, just shy of last month’s record at $238.91. Wholesale beef ended Monday lower as Choice fell another $1.48 to $372.07 while Select sunk $1.44 to $350.05. Falling wholesale beef while cash cattle is pushing higher has quickly eroded packer margins deep in the red.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Monday’s technical breakout. August lean hogs pushed above key technical resistance on Monday, which is likely to spur followthrough selling today. Strength in the cash market is helping fuel futures higher, as the CME lean hog index is up another 27 cents to $108.20. While the index is pushing higher, gains have been rather small. Pork cutout ended Monday solidly higher, rising $1.73 to $119.52, led by strength in bellies and hams.