GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 10 to 12 cents higher; HRS 8 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains led strength overnight, led by the wheat market. Soybeans lagged behind and continue to trade in a tight range. Wheat looks to have made a short-term bottom and has led recent strength. Outside markets are quiet this morning as both front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are trading near unchanged.
India is pursuing a multi-phase trade agreement with the U.S., aiming to finalize an interim pact before President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff package takes effect in July, according to Bloomberg. The deal is expected to unfold in three stages: Phase 1 (pre-July): A limited agreement covering market access for industrial goods, selected agricultural products and easing of non-tariff barriers, such as quality control standards. Phase 2 (Fall 2025): A broader agreement potentially covering all 19 areas listed in the terms of reference signed in April. This could coincide with Trump’s expected visit to India for the Quad summit. Phase 3 (2026): A comprehensive final agreement, pending Congressional approval. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is currently in Washington meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to accelerate talks. Both sides have yet to formally confirm the three-tier structure.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop 52% “good” to “excellent” and 18% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop slipped 0.2 point to 328.4. The SRW crop inched 0.1 point lower to 374.8. The modest declines came despite improvements in the top producers for both crops – Kansas for HRW and Illinois for SRW. Click here for full details.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast by 2 MMT to 129 MMT, with the safrinha crop accounting for 1.91 MMT of the increase. He projects the safrinha crop at 99.8 MMT – 78.7% of total production. Record yields are reported in Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Goias, Mato Grosso, Bahia, Rondonia and Tocantins. Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean production estimate at 169 MMT. Despite recent flooding in Buenos Aires province that we reported in “Evening Report” on Monday, Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop estimates for soybeans and corn at 50 MMT each.
CORN: July corn futures surged overnight. Bulls are seeking to challenge 20-day moving average resistance at $4.57 1/2 on continued strength. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $4.50 3/4, which is in line with psychological $4.50 support, then $4.43 1/2 on persistent weakness.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures continue to trade in a tight sideways range. Support stands at $10.48, the 40-day moving average, then $10.46. Bulls are seeking to close prices above the 10-day moving average at $10.54 3/4, which is reinforced by resistance at $10.59 3/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures climbed to fresh for-the-move highs overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.42 3/4, the 40-day moving average, which is backed by $5.48. Support comes in at $5.33 1/2, the 20-day moving average, then $5.25 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Cash cattle averaged another record last week, rising $1.65 to $226.45. Cash sources anticipate cash trade will be steady at best this week as packers had another week of strong purchases, covering short-term needs, especially considering the holiday-shortened schedule next week. Wholesale beef continues to work higher but has done little to offset the rally in cattle prices, leaving packer margins deep in the red. Choice cutout rose another $2.32 to $354.81 while Select climbed $1.72 to $344.11 on Monday.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as futures are supported by cash fundamentals, though a continuation of recent selling pressure could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 20 cents to $91.46 as of May 16, extending the seasonal climb. Pork cutout firmed 97 cents to $101.09 Monday, the highest since the Feb. 17 peak at $102.47. Cutout was led higher by gains in ribs and butts. While cutout finished yesterday higher, movement remains weak, a concern as demand is slowing amid higher prices.