GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight while corn follow to the upside. Wheat saw action on either side of unchanged. Soy bulls were encouraged by remarks from Trump that China tariffs are unsustainable and that he believes “we’ll be fine with China.”Those comments encouraged equity bulls as well, pulling prices well off session lows. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is round 125 points higher.
The U.S. dollar index fell for a fourth day today, putting it on track for its biggest weekly drop in more than two months, amid dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and the fresh worries over U.S. regional banks. U.S. Treasury two-year yields fell to a three-year low overnight. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield dipped below 4.0% today. Traders have boosted bets on Federal Reserve easing, and are now pricing 53 basis points of cuts by year-end versus 46 on Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that Fed officials can keep lowering U.S. interest rates in quarter-percentage-point increments to support a faltering U.S. labor market. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, meanwhile, reiterated his view that a move twice that size would be appropriate later this month when the FOMC meets.
The International Monetary Fund sees “significant downside risks” to global growth due to renewed trade frictions between the U.S. and China, the Fund’s Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, Krishna Srinivasan, said on Friday. After months of tentative stability in U.S.-China relations, tensions flared in recent weeks when Washington expanded tech restrictions and proposed tariffs on Chinese ships entering U.S. ports. China responded with similar actions, outlining tighter export controls on rare earths and other critical materials. “If these risks materialize in greater tariffs and disruption in supply chains, then growth could be lower by 0.3 points,” Srinivasan told Bloomberg TV’s Haslinda Amin on Friday. “If there are further tensions that would also mean downside risks for China.”
Clean Fuels Alliance America has sent a letter to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and a copy to USDA Secretary Booke Rollins, saying EPA’s pending Supplemental Notice on Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) for 2026 and 2027 may have a major negative impact on the U.S. agricultural economy. “U.S. soybean farmers and processors could lose between $3.2 billion and $7.5 billion in crop value over the next two years if EPA does not completely reallocate recently exempted RFS volumes.” Clean Fuels Alliance America is the largest U.S. trade association for the biomass-based diesel industry. The EPA is co-proposing additional RFS volumes in 2026 and 2027 reallocating completely (100%) or partially (50%) retroactively exempted small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2023 and 2024, as well as those projected to be granted for 2025. “Biomass-based diesel is essential to America’s farm security, now more than ever. Domestic biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production supports 10% of the value of every bushel of soybeans grown in the United States,” said the letter.
CORN: December corn is working higher for the fourth consecutive session. Resistance stands at $4.25 on continued strength. Support comes in at $4.20 then $4.18 3/4, the 40-day moving average, on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans pushed higher overnight on trade hopes. Resistance stands at the 20-day moving average at $10.16 1/2 then $10.20 3/4, the 40-day moving average. Tentative support lies at $10.13 with firmer backing from $10.06 1/2 on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat struggled to maintain early overnight bullish momentum. Resistance stands at $5.04, the 10-day moving average, then $5.08 3/4. Support stands at the psychological $5.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Bulls continue to hold the advantage and have closed prices higher for ten consecutive sessions. Cash cattle trade through midday Thursday remains light at higher prices. Negotiations are likely to pick up today. Wholesale beef ended Thursday lower with choice sinking 37 cents to $366.11 while select fell 23 cents to $348.93.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, though corrective buying could limit losses after the open. Prices have been stair stepping lower over the last couple of weeks with bears holding the distinct advantage. The CME lean hog index is down another 61 cents to $96.59 as of Oct. 15, extending the seasonal slide. Cutout bounced 21 cents to $102.17 Thursday, led by gains in bellies and loins.