Ahead of the Open | Trump says China deal close

Trump posted comments following recent meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials

Pro Farmer Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer Ahead of the Open
(Lindsey Pound)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.

Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.

Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans saw profit-taking following Friday’s big leg higher for most of the overnight session. Comments from Trump regarding trade talks with China lifted soybeans late in the session. Outside markets are supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 210 points lower.

USDA reported daily export sales of 148,971 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.

The National Weather Service today reported showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly across the northern Plains today, moving across the northern Rockies/high Plains today and reload over the central Plains Tuesday night. The mid-September heat wave is persisting up the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, with warmer-than-normal weather from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. The weather system responsible for bringing the recent rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Great Plains is forecast to weaken today. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across the central U.S. today. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will take its time exiting the northern Plains, where additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today before spreading eastward into the upper Midwest later today and then dissipate.

Corteva, the $50 billion agricultural giant best known for its Pioneer seeds, is exploring a breakup that would separate its seed and pesticide businesses, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. A formal announcement could come soon, barring last-minute snags. The move would mark a dramatic shift for a company born out of the 2019 DowDuPont spinout and could unleash a new wave of dealmaking in the farm sector. “Separating Corteva’s crop-seed unit from its pesticide business could help shield its seeds from any potential future liabilities,” the WSJ reported, noting that rival Bayer has faced billions in litigation costs over its Roundup weedkiller. Corteva’s share price has surged nearly 150% since its spinoff, and more than 25% this year alone, closing Friday up about 2% on the news before continuing to climb in after-hours trading. The company reported about $17 billion in sales last year — $9.6 billion from seeds and $7.4 billion from crop protection chemicals.

U.S. and Chinese trade officials discussed TikTok, trade and the global economy during high-level talks held in Madrid, Spain Sunday. Trump this morning wrote on Truth Social “THE BIG TRADE MEETING IN EUROPE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND CHINA, HAS GONE VERY WELL! IT WILL BE CONCLUDING SHORTLY.” Trump went on to say “I WILL BE SPEAKING TO PRESIDENT XI ON FRIDAY. THE RELATIONSHIP REMAINS A VERY STRONG ONE!!! PRESIDENT DJT.” A meeting between the leaders of the world’s top two economies has been in the focus in order to broker a trade deal.

CORN: December corn gapped lower overnight. Bulls are looking to hold prices above support at $4.25 today. Resistance persists at Friday’s high of $4.30 1/4.

SOYBEANS: November soybeans gave up a portion of Friday’s gain overnight. Support comes in at $10.37 3/4 on persistent selling pressure. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $10.50 on strength.

WHEAT: December SRW wheat are working higher for the third consecutive session. Bulls are looking to overcome 20-day moving average resistance at $5.26. Support comes in at $5.22 3/4 on a reversal lower.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/higher.

HOGS: Choppy/higher.

CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as technical support and discounts to the cash market are expected to support prices. Cash cattle trade picked up towards the end of the week but prices still fell week-over-week. Wholesale beef prices continue to fall under pressure, as Choice cutout slid another 75 cents to $400.04 Friday, while Select sunk $1.51 to $378.44.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. The technical posture in lean hogs remains fully bullish alongside cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is up another dime to $106.14 as of Sept. 11. Pork cutout ended Friday $1.34 higher to $114.51 as bellies led prices higher, rebounding from Thursday’s weakness.