GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn futures led strength overnight while soybeans saw some late session buying following a social media post from President Trump. Trump posted on China, saying “We are working together smartly, and very well!” He also noted that the meeting with Xi will take place in a couple weeks. Outside markets are mixed this morning as both front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are modestly higher.
Latest on the war in the Middle East:
--Trump hints truce deal with Iran might be close
--Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed
--China’s Xi vows closer coordination with Russia as Iran war drags on
--U.S. stocks hold near all-time highs on peace hopes
--Israel hails Lebanon talks despite slim odds of breakthrough
President Trump played down the prospect of renewed fighting in the war with Iran, even as questions remain over Tehran’s nuclear program and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking to ABC News on Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg, Trump said extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary, hinting at near-term progress toward a deal to end the near seven-week conflict. In a Fox Business interview, he said the war is “close to over.” An initial round of peace talks between the two sides ended in Pakistan on Sunday without a deal. A second meeting hasn’t been agreed, though work has been ongoing this week to secure a new time and place, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said Bloomberg. Talks might restart “over the next two days,” Trump told the New York Post, which would mean by Thursday.
A survey by Farm Bureau shows fertilizer pre-booking rates varied significantly by region, with just 19% of Southern producers reporting fertilizer purchases secured ahead of the season, compared to 30% in the Northeast, 31% in the West and 67% in the Midwest, reflecting differences in planting decision timelines and exposure to recent price increases. “Fertilizer affordability challenges are most acute in the South and Northeast but remain a concern for farmers across all regions. Around 70% of respondents report being unable to afford all the fertilizer they need. Farm diesel prices have increased 46% since the end of February, raising costs for fieldwork, fertilizer transport and irrigation during both planting and growing seasons. Nearly six in 10 farmers report worsening finances, reflecting rising fertilizer and fuel costs during spring planting and underscoring the urgent need for immediate economic assistance to keep farms gates open. “Rising input costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East are adding strain to an already challenging farm economy,” said the survey. More than 5,700 farmers responded to the survey, which was conducted April 3 through April 11.
CORN: July corn futures saw followthrough strength overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.57 1/2 on persistent strength. Support stands at $4.51 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybeans bounced overnight. Resistance stands at $11.89 1/2 on continued strength, while key support lies at $11.74 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures are finding resistance at the psychological $6.00 mark. Additional resistance stands at $6.05. Bulls are looking to hold support at $5.94 1/2 on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Some profit-taking is possible after the open considering record prices and steep premiums to the cash market, but the sentiment has quickly shifted as traders anticipate higher cash prices in the coming weeks. Choice beef rose $1.28 to $383.20 Tuesday, still struggling to garner much bullish momentum.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure, though technical support at the 200-day moving average could limit the downside. Until the cash market shows sustained strength, futures are likely to continue to slide. The CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $90.33 as of April 13. Pork cutout meanwhile slid 54 cents to $98.60 Tuesday, led by losses in bellies and loins.