GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade despite comments yesterday that Trump predicted China would resume U.S. ag purchases. The market has quickly turned to “show me” rather than “tell me” with positive posts on social media doing little to stir buying efforts. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is down on corrective trade, down around 250 points.
President Trump on Thursday predicted China would resume purchases of U.S. soybeans after meeting President Xi Jinping later this month, though USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said federal relief for U.S. farmers will have to wait until the U.S. government reopens. Trump said the pressure he would bring on the Chinese president during their planned sit-down later this month would end Beijing’s months-long moratorium on U.S. soybean buys. “What happens with soybeans is we’re going to see more and more, I think, opening up,” Trump told reporters at the White House and as reported by Bloomberg. “He’s got things that he wants to discuss with me, and I have things that I want to discuss with him. And one of the things is soybeans.” The Trump administration for weeks has said there is a forthcoming aid program for farmers as a way to provide temporary assistance until market conditions improve. However, Rollins signaled that a package won’t be announced as long as the government funding lapse continues. “We’ve got to get the government reopened so that we can move forward on that, and once we do, we’ll be able to move out a significant program to help our farmers long term,” she said during a cabinet meeting at the White House.
China will start levying special fees on U.S. ships docking at its ports, starting Oct. 14, in retaliation to a U.S. plan to charge port fees on Chinese ships. China’s fees on U.S. vessels will be 400 Chinese yuan ($56.00) per MT, increasing each year to reach 1,120 yuan by April 2028, according to a Ministry of Transport release and reported by Bloomberg. China’s move is in response to the U.S. plan to start charging port fees on Chinese-built, -operated, or -owned ships, which Beijing says seriously violated the principles of international trade and the U.S. and China Maritime Agreement.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled staff to prepare a key inflation report necessary to calculate the size of next year’s Social Security checks. The agency was directed by the White House Office of Management and Budget to bring back employees to assemble the September consumer price index report in time for publication by the end of this month. The Social Security Administration uses third-quarter CPI data to determine the annual cost-of-living adjustment for recipients for the following year. The CPI report may come out in time for the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28-29 FOMC policy meeting. Investors expect officials to cut interest rates again, but several policymakers have expressed hesitancy in doing so given inflation is still running well above their target. The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, with no signs of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats that would reopen the government. It appears lawmakers won’t take up a vote on the matter until next week, at the earliest.
CORN: December corn favored the downside overnight. Support stands at $4.15 then $4.10 1/2 on an extension lower. Resistance comes in at $4.19 1/2 on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans saw an extension lower overnight. Support lies at $10.10 then $10.08 1/4. Resistance stands at $10.19 1/2, the 10-day moving average, on a bounce.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat fell near contract lows overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold psychological $5.00 support. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $5.10 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though corrective selling could limit gains after the open given overbought conditions. Cash trade continues to be light amid the ongoing surge in futures. Wholesale beef fell under pressure on Thursday with choice cutout sinking 94 cents to $365.22 while Select dipped 91 cents to $344.33.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent weakness, though technical support could limit losses after the open. December futures broke down out of the bear flag that had encompasses price action much of this week. The CME lean hog index is down another 62 cents to $100.08 as of Oct. 8. Pork cutout fell another $1.18 to $102.64 Thursday, led by losses in bellies.