GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw relative strength overnight through gains were limited by technical resistance, corn traded narrowly near unchanged and wheat saw relative weakness. Outside markets are relatively quiet this morning as the ongoing shutdown has seemingly lost its luster in spurring volatility. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points lower.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Wednesday the possibility of extending a pause of import duties on Chinese goods for longer than three months exists if China halts its plan for strict new export controls on rare-earth elements. The U.S. and China have agreed to a series of 90-day truces, with the next deadline looming in November, and economists describe the latest moves by both sides as attempts to stack up bargaining chips ahead of a likely leaders’ meeting, according to a Bloomberg report. Bessent predicted a coordinated response to China’s move from the U.S. and several allies, saying “we’re going to have a fulsome, group response to this, because bureaucrats in China cannot manage the supply chain or the manufacturing process for the rest of the world.” Meantime, President Trump, when asked by a reporter if the world’s two largest economies are in for a sustained trade war if they cannot reach a trade deal, replied: “Well, you’re in one now.” He added, “We have a 100% tariff. If we didn’t have tariffs, we would be exposed as being a nothing.”
President Trump on Wednesday said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to halt purchases of Russian oil, signaling a possible resolution to an issue at the center of the diplomatic and trade rift between the U.S. and India, according to a Bloomberg report. India’s government didn’t confirm it’s complying with Trump’s demands, although it said it’s working to deepen energy ties with the U.S. Trump said Modi assured him that India will not be buying oil from Russia, which Trump called “a big step” and added that he now wants China to do the same thing.
U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks and employment levels held largely stable, according to the Federal Reserve’s “beige book,” released Wednesday afternoon. However, overall consumer spending edged lower, and prices continued to rise, with several districts reporting that input costs increased at a faster pace. The outlook for growth differed by district, with some contacts expecting a pickup in demand over the next six to 12 months, while others pointed to risks such as a prolonged government shutdown. Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied, the Fed said. Some businesses opted to keep selling prices largely unchanged to retain customers, while others fully passed on higher import costs to consumers.
CORN: December corn traded in a tight range near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages at $4.16 3/4 and $4.18, respectively, overnight. Bulls are seeking to close prices above resistance at $4.20 on strength while support stands at $4.15.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans saw relative strength overnight. Gains were limited by the 10-day moving average at $10.12 1/2. Strength above that mark eyes resistance at $10.16 1/2. Support comes in at the psychological $10.00 mark on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat continue to see persistent selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above yesterday’s low of $4.94 3/4, which is reinforced by the contract low of $4.92 1/4. Psychological resistance persists at the $5.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open. Fats have closed higher for nine consecutive sessions, an impressive run, though volume sunk on Wednesday, indicating buying interest is waning. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed with choice cutout rising $2.06 to $366.48 while select sunk $1.39 to $349.16.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone amid persistent technical selling pressure. December lean hogs bounced yesterday but gains were limited by 100-day moving average resistance at $84.25. That level will be key if bulls try to work prices higher again today. The CME lean hog index is down another 79 cents to $97.20 as of Oct. 14, continuing the seasonal decline. Pork cutout slid another $1.80 to $101.96 Wednesday amid losses across all cuts.