GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Soybeans: 17 to 20 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat steady to 2 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight amid a U.S. and China 90-day reduction on tariffs. Corn followed to the upside, while winter wheat futures saw relative weakness and forged fresh contract lows. Some profit-taking is possible after the open given big overnight moves, especially in soybeans. Stock futures surged overnight as S&P 500 futures are trading at the highest level since early March. Front-month crude oil futures are sharply higher this morning as well, up over $2.00. The U.S. dollar index is up around 1250 points.
USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Mexico, with 24,000 MT being shipped in 2024-25 and the remaining 96,000 MT for delivery in 2025-26.
The U.S. and China have agreed to dramatically reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for a 90-day period following high-level talks in Geneva, Switzerland. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will drop from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods will be reduced from 125% to 10%. The tariff reductions take effect on Wednesday and apply to most of the duties imposed in April, covering a wide range of consumer and industrial goods. Negotiators agreed to meet regularly over the next three months. The spotlight now shifts to whether both sides can convert the 90-day window into a durable deal.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba signaled that increasing corn imports from the U.S. would be among options in trade negotiations with Washington, but warned Japan would never sacrifice its agriculture industry to obtain lower auto tariffs. Japan has made little headway in two rounds of trade talks with the United States. Agreeing to buy more corn is a less controversial option for Japan than increasing rice imports. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said he won’t waver in his demand for the U.S. to eliminate all the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
USDA will release its Supply & Demand and Crop Production Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT. They will feature updates to the old-crop balance sheets and the first official look at the 2025-26 marketing year, including USDA’s initial winter wheat production estimate and new-crop corn and soybean production projections based on March planting intentions and trendline yields. Click here to view pre-report expectations.
CORN: July corn futures followed soybeans higher overnight. Resistance comes in at the 10-day moving average at $4.59 1/2 on continued strength. Support comes in at $4.50 then $4.47 1/2 on a reversal back lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures led strength overnight. Prices made a fresh for-the-move high, overcoming resistance at $10.60 and $10.65 1/4, marking those areas as support. Psychological resistance at $10.75 is bulls’ next objective.
WHEAT: July SRW futures struggled to reciprocate strength overnight. Prices made a fresh contract low of $5.15 1/2 which remains support. Resistance comes in at the psychological $5.25 mark then the 10-day moving average at $5.31.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher as a closure of the southern border is likely to continue to boost prices. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Sunday announced the suspension of live cattle, horse and bison imports through ports of entry along the U.S./Mexico border in response to the rapid northward advance of the New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. Cash cattle made another record last week, though the official tally won’t be known until later this morning. Going into Friday, trade averaged $224.49. Wholesale beef pulled back on Friday, with Choice falling $1.92 to $345.97 while Select dropped $2.03 to $331.17.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher amid a favorable tone across the marketplace. News that the U.S. and China are pausing tariffs for 90 days is also supportive for hog futures today as the country is likely to resume purchases of U.S. origin pork in the meantime. The CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $89.99 as of May 8, the second straight daily decline. Meanwhile, cutout surged $3.33 to $97.83 Friday, led by strength in ribs, butts and loins, though all cuts except bellies posted gains on the day.