GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat favored the downside overnight, continuing the tight correlation with crude oil futures. Soybeans saw relative strength, though continue to trade in a tight range. Front-month crude oil futures are trading lower this morning amid a potential ceasefire, though reports out of Iran state that Iran rejected the proposal. The U.S. dollar index is around 50 points lower.
Latest on the war in Iran:
--Iran received a 15-point peace proposal drafted by the U.S. The proposal covers sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, missile limits and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. awaits Iran’s response. Trump says Iran “wants to make a deal.”
--Tehran has been signaling little willingness to compromise, at least in public, saying the U.S. is negotiating with itself.
-- US is set to deploy 2,000 troops to the Middle East, adding to about 5,000 soldiers expected to start arriving in the region in the coming days.
--Iran has kept up attacks on Arab Gulf states and Israel overnight but no reports of casualties.
--India facing pressure as leader of the BRICS group to steer the bloc toward taking a firmer stand on the Iran conflict.
--Iran’s harder-to-hunt long-range missiles taking greater toll.
--Global stocks bounce, crude oil falls on Trump’s peace push.
The Trump administration is “moving at warp speed” to get out biofuels blending standards,” said USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg . “The Trump administration is preparing to expand the opportunity for sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline this summer by waiving the fuel from U.S. volatility requirements, according to people familiar with the matter. The Environmental Protection Agency is set to brief industry stakeholders on the planned approach this morning, said the people, who asked not to be named before a public announcement,” and as reported by Bloomberg. Said Rollins: “We have been in a lot of meetings ensuring that our agriculture community is frankly put first and farm security is national security,” in an interview at USDA. “The President has been resolute on that since day one and certainly has not taken his foot off the gas pedal.”
“Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients ahead of spring planting, as the Middle East war chokes off the flow of commodities and amplifies fears of a global food crisis,” according to a Bloomberg report. “Fertilizers exemplify the tight link between energy and food prices, underpinning harvests worldwide. The Middle East is a vital supplier, rich in both mineral reserves and the gas needed to produce nutrients for staples like corn, wheat and rice. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, shipments have ground to a halt,” said the report. Prices of urea - the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer - have surged, with phosphate supplies also at risk. Much of global stock is tied to the Persian Gulf, and panic is spreading across major agricultural economies. Top exporters China and Russia are curbing some crop nutrient sales, while the U.S. is loosening shipping restrictions to facilitate domestic flows.
CORN: May corn futures gave up Tuesday’s gain overnight. The 10-day moving average remains a key pivot at $4.60 1/2. Support comes in at $4.56 1/2 on a push lower, while resistance stands at yesterday’s high of $4.65 3/4.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans continue to find support at the 40-day moving average, currently at $11.54. Key resistance stands at $11.68 1/4, the 20-day moving average.
WHEAT: May SRW futures broke below the 20-day moving average at $5.88 1/2, marking that as initial resistance. Additional resistance lies at $5.93. Support comes in at $5.75 3/4 on another push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Higher cash cattle trade to start the week could boost futures as a bottom appears to be in place. Cash trade initiated at $236.00 this week, above last week’s average of $235.08. Choice cutout bounced on Tuesday, rising 78 cents to $399.91. Packer margins surging to the black could be boosting packers’ willingness to negotiate.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on profit-taking. Continued weakness in the cash market could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is down another 7 cents to $91.70 as of March 23. Big losses in pork cutout Tuesday could limit buyer interest today as well. Cutout sunk $2.63 to $96.97 amidst losses in all cuts except ribs. Movement surged to 349.5 loads indicating high demand at lower prices.