GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: Witner wheat 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 6 to 8 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains continue to lead weakness while soybeans see relative strength. Markets remain keyed in on trade and have not quite begun reflecting shifting weather patterns. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower and giving up a portion of recent gains while the U.S. dollar index is around 425 points lower.
Following last weekend’s trade breakthrough in Switzerland, the United States and China have agreed to sharply reduce headline tariffs for 90 days. But a South China Morning Post article says that while the move has eased immediate tensions, the real cost for exporters remains complex — and in many cases, still burdensome. Despite the headline tariff reductions, Chinese exporters are still looking at an average effective rate of about 50%, according to Huatai Securities and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Some products — like steel and aluminum — remain subject to even higher total rates, with additional 25% duties layered on top. This environment is expected to drive continued workarounds: Transshipment through third countries, undervaluing or mislabeling goods and fulfilling U.S. orders from non-China-based factories. Unless further rounds of talks deliver deeper cuts — or remove cumulative legacy duties — the burden on cross-border trade remains heavy.
President Donald Trump is poised to announce a new trade deal upon his return from the Middle East, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Speaking on Fox News, Hassett revealed there are more than 20 to 25 trade deals currently “really close” to being finalized, signaling a major push in U.S. trade policy as the administration continues its aggressive pursuit of bilateral and sector-specific agreements. Hassett has indicated that the administration’s strategy is to replicate and expand on successful past deals, such as the U.S./UK agreement, by tailoring new agreements to individual countries and sectors. The administration’s flurry of trade activity is being closely watched by industry analysts and markets, as the outcomes will shape the next phase of U.S. economic engagement worldwide.
Crop scouts on the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual HRW tour of Kansas found a higher yield from field samples than last year across northern areas of the state. The average yield for HRW wheat found in fields between Manhattan, Kansas, and Colby was estimated at 50.5 bu. per acre, up from 49.9 bu. on similar routes last year and the five-year average of 45.1 bu. per acre. That was the tour’s highest Day 1 yield estimate since 2021. Scouts will sample fields in western and southern Kansas today on routes from Colby to Wichita.
CORN: July corn futures continue to undergo staunch selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to hold support at yesterday’s low of $4.36 1/2, which is backed by support at $4.31 1/2. Resistance comes in at $4.41 1/2 then the 10-day moving average at $4.52 1/4 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures continue to struggle overcoming psychological resistance at $10.75. Strength above that mark eyes resistance at $10.82. Support comes in at the 200-day moving average at $10.65 1/2 on a reversal lower, a key level.
WHEAT: July SRW futures reversed back lower overnight. Bears are eyeing the contract low of $5.06 1/4 on continued selling, which is reinforced by the psychological $5.00 mark. Resistance stands at yesterday’s high of $5.20 on a bounce, which is backed by resistance at $5.24 3/4, the 10-day moving average.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open. Futures continue to trade at steep discounts to the cash market, which is likely to limit the downside until there is a notable downtick in cash prices. Cash cattle trade has had a slow start to the week, with a little trade taking place at modestly firmer prices. Wholesale beef continues to work higher as Choice topped $350.00 Tuesday, rising $1.96 to $350.10, while Select slipped 76 cents to $334.47.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. The uncertainty surrounding the cash hog market has somewhat subsided, supported by a rebounding cash index and anticipation of a better export market. The CME lean hog index is up 39 cents to $90.31 as of May 12, ending a three-day slide. May lean hog futures, which expire at noon CT today and are settled against the index on May 16, finished Tuesday 66.5 cents above today’s quote. Pork cutout climbed 51 cents to $97.02 on Tuesday, supported by gains in ribs and butts.