Ahead of the Open | Sideways to lower trend continues

The ongoing sideways to lower trend amid the ongoing data deficient government shutdown continues with corn and wheat pushing to fresh lows overnight.

Pro Farmer Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer Ahead of the Open
(Lindsey Pound)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.

Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.

Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.

GENERAL COMMENTS: The ongoing sideways to lower trend amid the ongoing data deficient government shutdown continues with corn and wheat pushing to fresh lows overnight. Soybeans continue to trade within Friday’s range but gave up most of Monday’s gain overnight. Outside markets continue to be volatile as equity futures are down heavily this morning alongside front-month crude oil futures. The U.S. dollar index is around 180 points higher this morning.

The National Weather Service today reports showers and thunderstorms will develop over much of the Midwest today and Wednesday. Parts of the Great Basin, central Rockies, central Plains, and southern High Plains will also see rain, with higher-elevation snow developing over the northern Intermountain Region. Rain will expand over parts of the Northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. Furthermore, overnight Tuesday rain will extend into the Great Lakes, ending by Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Basin, the Northern Intermountain Region, the northern/central Rockies, the northern/central Plains, and the southern High Plains.

China on Tuesday sanctioned the U.S. units of a South Korean shipping giant and threatened further retaliatory measures on the industry, the latest in a series of tit-for-tat moves as the U.S. and China ratchet up their trade war. Bloomberg reports the sanctions, targeting five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean Co., helped fuel a slump in global stock markets today “as traders dialed back hopes for an easing of tensions between the world’s largest economies,” said the report. Shipping is just one point of contention in the China-U.S. relationship that has kept global investors on edge in recent days. Beijing has tightened export controls on rare earths among other measures, while the U.S. has expanded curbs on China’s access to chips and threatened the country with additional 100% tariffs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has accused Beijing of pointing “a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world,” and has rallied U.S. allies to unite with Washington in opposing the China policy. Chinese officials have a chance to ease tensions this week. Vice Finance Minister Liao Min, a key member of Beijing’s trade negotiating team, is attending an annual meeting of global finance ministers in Washington D.C., where he’s already met with members of Bessent’s team, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg reported.

The 2025/26 soybean acreage in Brazil may increase more than what was originally expected, said Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier in his latest weekly report. Conab will issue its first official crop estimates for the 2025/26 growing season today. In its preliminary estimate, Conab forecast Brazil’s soybean acreage would increase 3.6% to 49.08 million hectares (121.2 million acres). “Soybean acreage is being supported by a strong domestic demand for soybeans due to the biodiesel blend in Brazil going from B14 to B15 with soybean oil being the main raw ingredient. Soybean producers in Brazil are also cautiously optimistic, given the trade war between the United States and China. After the trade war during the first Trump administration, China turned to Brazil for its soybean needs and they never looked back. The current trade war is even more proof that China views the United States as a hostile trading partner and that they will be sourcing most, if not all, their soybeans from South America,” said Cordonnier.

CORN: December corn broke below $4.10 1/2, the Oct. 1 low, overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $4.05. Resistance stands at $4.15 1/2 on resurgent strength.

SOYBEANS: November soybeans continue to trade within Friday’s range. Support stands at the psychological $10.00 mark while resistance lies at $10.14, the 10-day moving average.

WHEAT: December SRW wheat slid to fresh contract lows overnight. Tentative support stands at $4.90 on persistent selling, while resistance comes in at the psychological $5.00 mark on a bounce.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Higher.

HOGS: Choppy.

CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Futures surged to contract highs on Monday, supported by resurgent strength in the cash cattle market. Cash cattle averaged $234.07 last week, a gain of $3.31 week-over-week. Still, some corrective selling is possible given overbought conditions on the daily bar chart. Wholesale beef ended Monday mixed as Choice fell $1.66 to $363.91 while Select climbed $3.36 to $349.75.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to continue to see choppy price action. While some additional corrective buying is possible, seasonally weak cash fundamentals continue to weigh on the hog complex. The CME lean hog index is down another 86 cents to $97.31 as of Oct. 10. Pork cutout slid 83 cents to $103.59 Monday, led by losses in butts, ribs and hams.