GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Selling efforts halted across the grain and soy complex with each bouncing from technical support. Those levels, listed in the technical commentary below, will be key today in maintaining any advantage for the bulls. The stabilization in crude oil futures helped boost buying interest in ag commodities, as crude has had a difficult time breaking below the $90-mark the past two sessions. The U.S. dollar index is down another 160 points this morning.
The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, government data showed Friday. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a gain of 55,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as expected. Signs of a solid labor market will reinforce expectations the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to resume cutting interest rates as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of a surge in crude oil prices as a result of the Iran war.
The U.S. and Iran traded fire near the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. forces targeting missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran. The clashes risk undermining talks over a U.S.-proposed deal to end the war, with Iran expected to send a response via Pakistan in the next two days. President Trump threatened more intense strikes if Iran refuses his terms, saying the U.S. will “knock them out a lot harder” if they don’t sign a deal.
Global food prices climbed to their highest levels in more than three years as the U.S.-Iran war disrupted supply chains, raising the prospect of larger bills for shoppers. The United Nations’ index of food-commodity prices gained 1.6% in April from the previous month, led higher by vegetable oils, meat and cereals, according to a Friday report. That’s 2.5% higher than a year ago. Elevated oil prices have also boosted demand for biofuels, with the U.N.’s vegetable oils index climbing 5.9% from March to hit its highest since July 2022. The FAO index monitors raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, meaning there will still be a lag before the farmgate increase reaches consumers. Still, the gains from March’s level is the first sign that food inflation is likely to pick up. The increase in the gauge — which tracks grains, sugar, meat, dairy and vegetable oil costs — marks the third consecutive month of gains, after rising for the first time in five months in February. The meat index climbed 1.2% to a record high, while the cereal price index rose by 0.8% on weather concerns and expectations of reduced wheat plantings in 2026, as farmers consider sowing less fertilizer‑intensive crops. Sugar prices, meanwhile, dropped 4.7%, following a sharp rise in March.
CORN: July corn futures are basing near the 40-day moving average at $4.46. Support lies at $4.61, the 100-day moving average, on a push lower. Resistance stands at $4.70 on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: July soybeans saw modest gains overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome the 10-day moving average at $11.97 1/4 before tackling the psychological $12.00 mark. Support comes in at $11.85 1/2 on a turn back lower.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw basing overnight. Bulls found support at the 40-day moving average at $6.11 3/4, a key technical level today. Resistance comes in at $6.20 3/4, the 20-day moving average, on a push higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone despite recent selling efforts. Reports of cash cattle bids at $260 are despite recent selling efforts in futures. The disconnect between the cash and futures market is not likely to last and futures seem the most likely to reverse course, which should lead to strength soon. Choice beef slid $2.68 to $386.94 Thursday, though movement remains firm at 107 loads.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone. Bulls have shown resilience near recent lows as bears have struggled to break prices much below this week’s low. The CME lean hog index continuing to inch lower could weigh on bulls’ appetite though, as the index is down another 17 cents to $91.02. Pork cutout rose 50 cents to $95.60 Thursday, led by gains in picnics and butts.