GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: 5 to 7 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: A volatile night of trade was capped with volatility spiking as rhetoric around the war in the Middle East is flip-flopping. Trump touts productive peace talks were had, while Iran denies any such claim. It looks to be another busy news week. Front-month crude oil futures are solidly lower this morning and around $90 while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 300 points lower.
Latest on the war in Iran:
--President Trump touts “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” yet Iran’s Foreign Ministry says there are no talks with Washington and accused the U.S. President of buying time while regional de-escalation efforts go on.
--President Trump orders the Pentagon to postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, according to a Truth Social post. U.S. and Iran have had very good and productive conversations over the past two days, he said.
--Crude oil prices drop by over 10% on apparent de-escalation of U.S. military action
--Israel hits Tehran again, while Iran carries out fresh strikes across Gulf
--More than 40 energy assets across Middle East damaged since the conflict began, IEA says
-- Global stock markets rebound, bond prices rally on Trump social media post
--Gold, silver prices plunge to lowest levels this year but recover some losses on Trump news
--Modi seeks to calm India as Iran war causes acute gas shortage
Goldman Sachs has raised its crude oil price forecasts for 2026 due to the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the largest-ever supply shock for the global crude market. The firm expects Brent crude oil prices to average $85.00 a barrel in 2026 and West Texas Intermediate to average $79.00 a barrel, up from earlier forecasts of $77.00 and $72.00, respectively. Goldman said the revisions are based on an assumption that oil flows through Hormuz would remain at only 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a one-month recovery, resulting in cumulative losses of just over 800 million barrels.
Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said over the weekend the start of technical talks with the U.S. to review the North American free trade agreement is “good news.” The talks have focused exclusively on the U.S.-Mexico trade, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s office saying the two sides will review options for increasing U.S. and Mexican production and manufacturing employment. Ebrard expects Ottawa to join the talks soon and defended the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, saying it has delivered significant results, including economic growth and employment. The talks began even as President Trump has suggested abandoning the three-nation framework for bilateral deals. A key deadline looms in July 2026, when all three governments must confirm in writing whether to extend the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, known as USMCA, for a new 16-year term.
CORN: May corn futures saw a wide range overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $4.60 1/2 on a push lower, while resistance stands at $4.69 3/4 on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans continue to consolidate in a tight range following last Monday’s move lower. Key support stands at $11.53 1/2 while bulls are looking for a daily close above $11.73.
WHEAT: May SRW futures found support at the 20-day moving average overnight. That stands as key support at $5.88 3/4, with reinforcement from $5.80. Resistance comes in at $5.96 1/4 then $6.00 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone amid a bearish Cattle on Feed report. USDA said cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.549 million head on Mar. 1, down 0.3% from the same date a year ago. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.611 million head, 4 percent above 2025 according to the report. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.522 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Cash trade indicated modestly lower trade into Friday, but the bulk of trading for the week was not yet reported. Choice beef continues to settle in above $400 but has not garnered much bullish momentum.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure, though oversold conditions could limit losses after the open. Losses in the cash market have been weighing on futures. The CME lean hog index is down 9 cents to $91.95 as of March 19. Pork cutout rose $1.15 to $99.20 Friday, led by gains in bellies and butts.