Ahead of the Open | November 17, 2021
Corn: 2 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 11 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures climbed in narrow-range trading overnight, on track to gain for the seventh day in the past eight. Soybean futures rose more than a dime to a three-week high on signs of stepped-up exports, while corn futures also firmed. Malaysian palm oil futures rose over 2.0%, while Nymex crude oil dropped around $1. The U.S. dollar index is little changed this morning after posting a new 16-month high for the sixth day in a row.
A large potential storm system may develop in the central U.S. Nov. 24-27, based on the GFS model, World Weather Inc. said. The potential storm could generate enough precipitation in the Delta, southern Corn Belt, Southeast and parts of Oklahoma and Texas to cause late-season fieldwork delays, but could boost soil moisture for winter wheat.
Ukraine has already exported 12.4 MMT of wheat – nearly half of the 25.3-MMT quota for 2021-22, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said today. But the country’s ag ministry says it plans no additional wheat export interventions at this time.
Canada’s wheat farmers may boost wheat plantings by about 6% next year, which could raise total spring wheat output to around 22 MMT, an official with the country’s agriculture ministry said today. Initial projections showed durum wheat seedings could rise about 10%.
CORN: December corn futures overnight matched yesterday’s low at $5.70 before rebounding modestly. Traders may look to soybeans and wheat for direction. December futures face resistance around $5.83 from a downtrend line drawn off the May and June highs. Other chart levels to watch include the 10-day moving average at $5.65 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans overnight rose as high as $12.64 3/4, the highest intraday price since $12.66 1/4 on Oct. 27. The overnight gains pushed futures slightly above a downtrend line drawn from the May and July highs. Further upside would solidify a potential near-term low at $11.81 1/4 posted Nov. 9. For market bulls, upside targets include closing January futures above solid resistance at $13.00.
WHEAT: March SRW futures traded in a relatively tight range overnight after holding above yesterday’s low at $8.19 1/2. The Relative Strength Index, at slightly over 65, indicate the market is nearing overbought territory. Resistance is seen at the contract high of $8.40 1/4 posted Nov. 15.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures may extend sideways trade with the cash market yet to establish a firm tone and USDA’s next Cattle on Feed Report looming on Friday. Cash cattle trade so far this week has been subdued, with light sales at roughly steady prices compared with last week’s 4 1/2-year highs. Wholesale beef prices remain under pressure, suggesting record retail prices are curbing demand. Choice cutout values fell $1.07 yesterday to an average of $282.13, the lowest since $281.82 on Oct. 22. But limited supplies of market-ready animals foreshadow higher prices 2022, based upon the February contract’s $4.00-plus premium to December.
USDA’s next Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show feedlot placements in October rose 2.2% from year-ago, based on a Reuters survey of analysts. The number of cattle on feed as of Nov. 1 is expected to decline about 0.2%.
HOGS: February lean hog futures, now the most-active contract, closed near a six-week high yesterday in a technically-driven rally but may have difficulty extending gains in light of falling wholesale pork prices. Pork cutout values plunged $6.16 yesterday to $87.77, as a $12.00 drop in bellies helped send the average to the lowest daily price since Feb. 10. Movement was relatively strong at nearly 387 loads. Carcass values on national direct markets fell 30 cents to $57.16. Hints of stabilization in the CME Lean Hog index may add support. The latest index rose 16 cents to $76.33, up from a nine-month low. February hog futures yesterday settled just under the intraday high at $83.425, the highest price since $85.05 on Oct. 8.