GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans opened higher overnight but struggled to hold onto gains, while wheat saw relative strength overnight. The overall marketplace saw a risk-on tone overnight following the delay of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. Stock futures are posting strong gains this morning, front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower and the U.S. dollar index is around 400 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 104,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico and 101,096 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations – each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
A three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade delivered a significant blow to President Donald Trump’s trade agenda on Wednesday, ruling that his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs and other global levies imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The ruling invalidates Trump’s April 2 “reciprocal” tariff order, which included 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, 25% tariffs on select goods from Mexico and Canada and a blanket 10% tariff on most imported goods. It does not affect 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos or auto parts imposed under the Trade Expansion Act’s Section 232. The court concluded that Trump exceeded his legal authority under IEEPA, which does not mention tariffs or grant the president unchecked economic powers absent a clear national emergency. Trump administration filed a notice of appeal. The duration of the appeal process in the Federal Circuit can vary, but such cases typically take several months to a year to resolve. In the meantime, the injunction against the tariffs remains in effect, and the administration may explore alternative legal avenues to reinstate them. Should the decision stand, it could significantly curtail presidential discretion in trade policy and reset the balance of power between Congress and the executive branch.
The court ruling blocking Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs represents only a temporary setback to his trade agenda, according to Goldman Sachs. Trump has other options at his disposal to impose levies. He could apply Section 122 tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days or initiate investigations under Section 301, though those would take longer to implement. Also, Goldman Chief U.S. Political Economist Alec Phillips said he doesn’t expect the court’s decision to have a major impact on the fiscal package in Congress, “as tariff revenue was never counted toward offsetting the cost of the package, and most lawmakers never made a clear link between the two issues.”
SovEcon raised its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 MMT to 40.8 MMT. The firm expects Russia to export 49.4 MMT of grain during the upcoming marketing year, down from an estimated 50.2 MMT this year.
Due to Monday’s holiday, export sales data for the week ended May 22 will be released on Friday morning.
CORN: July corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the May 13 close at $4.42 1/2 on continued selling, a level that has capped most of the downside this month. Resistance stands at the psychological $4.50 mark then the 10-day moving average at $4.53 3/4.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures opened higher overnight but struggled to hold onto gains. Initial resistance stands at the psychological $10.50 mark and is reinforced by resistance at $10.55. Support comes in at $10.39 1/4 then $10.36 1/2 on continued selling pressure.
WHEAT: July SRW futures continue to consolidate near this week’s lows. The 10-day moving average at $5.34 continues to serve up initial resistance, while additional strength would eye resistance at $5.41 1/2. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $5.27 1/2 then the psychological $5.25 mark on a turn lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by strength in cash fundamentals. Live cattle futures have sustained selling pressure the past few days, which could continue to weigh on prices. But the cash market remains well above futures, which should limit the downside. Cash cattle trade has had a slow start to the holiday-shortened week, but trade has taken place at higher prices. Wholesale beef continues to work higher, with Choice cutout climbing $3.57 to $365.42 while Select inched 91 cents higher to $351.74 on Wednesday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. June lean hogs have shown impressive strength the past two sessions and are poised to break higher following recent choppy trade around the $100.00 mark. The CME lean hog index continues to grind higher, rising another 47 cents to $93.52 as of May 27. The seasonal strengthening has been slow and steady without a big surge, contrary to many years. Pork cutout slid $1.33 to $102.40 Wednesday, giving up a portion of Tuesday’s big gain, as sharp losses in primal bellies undercut prices.